Lens v Le Havre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 30 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 8
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 4
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.23
Goals − xG
-0.60 – -0.41
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lens win
72.6%
Draw
16.2%
Le Havre win
11.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.12–0.65 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.46–1.17 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lens 1.60 xGLe Havre 0.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lens attacking right
Le Havre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Le Havre |
Yanis Zouaoui | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 11' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Odsonne Edouard |
| 17' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 18' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 19' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 30' |
Lens |
Malang Sarr | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 35' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 37' |
Le Havre |
Lucas Gourna Douath | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 44' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley Said |
| 45' |
Lens |
Ruben Aguilar | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matthieu Udol |
| 53' |
Le Havre |
Arouna Sangante | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 53' |
Le Havre |
Ayumu Seko | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 65' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 74' |
Le Havre |
Lucas Gourna Douath | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Timothee Pembele |
| 83' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 86' |
Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Lens |
Kyllian Antonio | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Wesley Said |
| 96' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Soumaré FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Ayumu Seko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Gourna Douath MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lionel Mpasi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Ebonog MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Stephan Zagadou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Loïc Négo MR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Yanis Zouaoui ML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sofiane Boufal FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| Arouna Sangante DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Daren Mosengo Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noam Obougou Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Timothee Pembele Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Fodé Doucouré Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Kenny Quetant Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felix Mambimbi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.16 | 1.26 |
| Ruben Aguilar DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.03 | 0.78 |
| Mamadou Sangaré MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.02 | 0.91 |
| Wesley Said AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0.94 |
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| Kyllian Antonio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Pierre Ganiou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Odsonne Edouard FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.36 | 0.55 |
| Rayan Fofana Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdallah Sima Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |