Lens v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Lens

11:15

Lorient

Shots

17 – 8

On target

6 – 3

Shots in box

10 – 5

xG per shot

0.06 – 0.13

Set-piece xG

0.26 – 0.03

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Lens win

65.9%

Draw

19.1%

Lorient win

15.0%

661915

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLWDDWLWWL last 10 scored 23 from 27.4 xG conceded 16 from 13.9 xG

Lorient are finishing below their chances — 2.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDLWLDWLDL last 10 scored 12 from 14.4 xG conceded 13 from 16.6 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	661915	2.21–0.95	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	651916	2.34–1.10	2-1 10%	67%	60%
dc-xg-oos	631918	2.26–1.12	2-1 10%	66%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to win	68.8%	66.8%	46.0%	1.45×	1.50
Draw	16.8%	16.7%	22.9%	0.73×	6.00
Lorient to win	14.4%	11.3%	31.3%	0.36×	8.83

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens & both teams score	38.4%	36.9%	22.1%	1.67×	2.71
Lens & not both score	30.3%	29.6%	24.0%	1.23×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	14.3%	12.1%	16.4%	0.74×	8.25
Lorient & both teams score	9.3%	7.6%	15.3%	0.49×	13.19
Lorient & not both score	5.1%	7.5%	16.1%	0.47×	13.30
Draw & not both score	2.5%	4.6%	6.6%	0.69×	21.97

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens & over 1.5	62.3%	59.9%	36.0%	1.66×	1.67
Lens & over 2.5	54.0%	49.2%	28.4%	1.73×	2.03
Lens & over 3.5	37.6%	34.7%	16.9%	2.05×	2.88
Lens & under 3.5	31.2%	32.1%	29.2%	1.10×	3.12
Lens & under 2.5	14.8%	13.0%	17.7%	0.73×	7.71
Draw & over 1.5	14.3%	13.0%	16.4%	0.79×	7.72
Lorient & over 1.5	11.6%	12.9%	25.1%	0.52×	7.72
Lorient & over 2.5	10.0%	12.9%	19.4%	0.67×	7.73
Draw & under 2.5	9.7%	7.4%	16.6%	0.45×	13.51
Draw & under 3.5	9.7%	7.4%	16.6%	0.45×	13.51
Lorient & under 3.5	8.9%	7.4%	20.4%	0.36×	13.51
Draw & over 2.5	7.1%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.52
Draw & over 3.5	7.1%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.52
Lens & under 1.5	6.5%	7.4%	10.1%	0.73×	13.53
Lorient & over 3.5	5.5%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.53
Lorient & under 2.5	4.3%	4.0%	12.0%	0.34×	24.70
Lorient & under 1.5	2.8%	4.0%	6.3%	0.64×	24.80
Draw & under 1.5	2.5%	4.0%	6.6%	0.61×	24.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (1UP)	80.7%	85.4%	58.3%	1.47×	1.17
Lorient (1UP)	35.0%	31.8%	49.1%	0.65×	3.14

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (2UP)	68.8%	68.2%	47.6%	1.44×	1.47
Lorient (2UP)	14.4%	13.3%	33.6%	0.40×	7.50

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to win 2nd half	62.5%	58.8%	42.5%	1.38×	1.70
2nd half drawn	23.5%	22.7%	31.0%	0.73×	4.41
Lorient to win 2nd half	14.0%	11.6%	26.7%	0.44×	8.61

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (+0.5)	85.6%	90.7%	68.7%	1.32×	1.10
Lorient (+2.5)	72.3%	75.8%	89.9%	0.84×	1.32
Lens (-0.5)	68.8%	71.4%	46.0%	1.55×	1.40
Lorient (+1.5)	52.6%	52.7%	74.9%	0.70×	1.90
Lens (-1.5)	47.4%	47.3%	25.1%	1.88×	2.11
Lorient (+0.5)	31.2%	28.6%	54.0%	0.53×	3.50
Lens (-2.5)	27.7%	24.2%	10.1%	2.40×	4.13
Lorient (-0.5)	14.4%	9.3%	31.3%	0.30×	10.78

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to concede	92.4%	91.0%	77.4%	1.18×	1.10
Lorient clean sheet	7.6%	9.0%	22.6%	0.40×	11.10

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to concede in 1st half	58.6%	58.4%	47.4%	1.23×	1.71
Lorient clean sheet in 1st half	41.4%	41.6%	52.6%	0.79×	2.40

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient under 6.5 corners	91.0%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Lorient under 5.5 corners	84.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lorient under 4.5 corners	74.3%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Lorient under 3.5 corners	60.1%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Lorient over 2.5 corners	57.8%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Lorient under 2.5 corners	42.2%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Lorient over 3.5 corners	39.9%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Lorient over 4.5 corners	25.7%	27.7%	—	—	3.62
Lorient over 5.5 corners	15.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Lorient over 6.5 corners	9.0%	10.8%	—	—	9.27

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient under 3.5 goals	97.3%	98.8%	93.5%	1.06×	1.01
Lorient under 2.5 goals	89.8%	90.0%	84.7%	1.06×	1.11
Lorient under 1.5 goals	69.4%	69.9%	63.5%	1.10×	1.43
Lorient over 0.5 goals	67.1%	69.8%	69.5%	1.00×	1.43
Lorient under 0.5 goals	32.9%	30.2%	30.5%	0.99×	3.31
Lorient over 1.5 goals	30.6%	30.1%	36.5%	0.83×	3.32
Lorient over 2.5 goals	10.2%	10.0%	15.3%	0.65×	10.01
Lorient over 3.5 goals	2.7%	1.2%	6.5%	0.19×	80.55

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient under 1.5 in 1st half	92.1%	94.1%	87.5%	1.07×	1.06
Lorient under 0.5 in 1st half	63.0%	64.9%	57.7%	1.13×	1.54
Lorient over 0.5 in 1st half	37.0%	35.1%	42.3%	0.83×	2.85
Lorient over 1.5 in 1st half	7.9%	5.9%	12.5%	0.48×	16.85

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (away no bet)	80.4%	83.2%	66.7%	1.25×	1.20
Draw (away no bet)	19.6%	16.8%	33.3%	0.50×	5.96

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient even goals	55.4%	60.1%	56.4%	1.07×	1.67
Lorient odd goals	44.6%	39.9%	43.6%	0.92×	2.50

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	73.7%	77.6%	83.1%	0.93×	1.29
Both halves over 1.5 goals	26.4%	22.4%	16.9%	1.33×	4.46

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	80.3%	76.2%	65.2%	1.17×	1.31
Both halves under 1.5 goals	19.7%	23.8%	34.8%	0.68×	4.21

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	74.1%	72.1%	60.2%	1.20×	1.39
Lens to score 2+ in a row	64.4%	59.2%	38.4%	1.54×	1.69
Either team to score 3+ in a row	38.5%	35.4%	22.7%	1.56×	2.82
Lens to score 3+ in a row	35.0%	35.3%	14.2%	2.48×	2.84
Lorient to score 2+ in a row	19.1%	16.1%	27.8%	0.58×	6.21
Lorient to score 3+ in a row	4.1%	2.5%	9.2%	0.28×	39.67

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens corners (+3.5)	96.7%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Lens corners (+2.5)	94.5%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Lens corners (+1.5)	91.1%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Lens corners (-1.5)	72.5%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Lens corners (-2.5)	64.0%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Lens corners (-3.5)	55.2%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Lorient corners (+3.5)	44.8%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Lorient corners (+2.5)	36.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Lorient corners (+1.5)	27.5%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Lorient corners (-1.5)	8.9%	11.4%	—	—	8.81
Lorient corners (-2.5)	5.5%	11.3%	—	—	8.83
Lorient corners (-3.5)	3.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.61

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	41.8%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
0-8 corners	32.8%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
9-11 corners	25.4%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	75.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	67.2%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Under 12.5 corners	65.7%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 9.5 corners	58.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	58.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	50.0%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Over 10.5 corners	50.0%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 11.5 corners	41.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 9.5 corners	41.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	34.3%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Under 8.5 corners	32.8%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Under 7.5 corners	24.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	12.2%	12.7%	5.1%	2.51×	7.87
2-1	9.3%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.44
2-0	8.3%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.45
3-1	7.9%	7.4%	6.2%	1.21×	13.45
1-1	7.2%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.45
3-0	7.1%	7.4%	3.8%	1.96×	13.45
1-0	6.5%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.46
2-2	5.1%	7.4%	4.9%	1.52×	13.46
4-1	5.1%	7.4%	2.1%	3.62×	13.46
4-0	4.6%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.56
1-2	4.0%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.58
3-2	4.4%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.57
0-0	2.5%	1.7%	6.6%	0.26×	58.63
0-1	2.8%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.62
4-2	2.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.62
0-2	1.6%	1.7%	5.8%	0.29×	58.66
1-3	1.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.66
2-3	1.9%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.65
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.65
0-3	0.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.67×	58.69
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.70
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.69
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.16×	58.69
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.16×	58.69
4-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.39×	58.67
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.39×	58.70

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens leading at HT (DNB)	70.4%	70.9%	53.5%	1.33×	1.41
Lorient leading at HT (DNB)	29.6%	29.1%	46.5%	0.63×	3.43

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw (1X)	85.6%	88.7%	68.7%	1.29×	1.13
Lens or Lorient (12)	83.2%	83.3%	77.1%	1.08×	1.20
Lorient or draw (X2)	31.2%	33.2%	54.0%	0.62×	3.01

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw at HT	81.6%	84.7%	71.4%	1.19×	1.18
Lens or Lorient at HT	62.1%	62.1%	61.3%	1.01×	1.61
Lorient or draw at HT	56.3%	56.4%	67.1%	0.84×	1.77

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw (1UP)	85.6%	91.7%	72.8%	1.26×	1.09
Lorient or draw (1UP)	35.0%	40.1%	61.9%	0.65×	2.50

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw in 2nd half	86.0%	88.4%	73.3%	1.21×	1.13
Lens or Lorient in 2nd half	76.5%	77.3%	69.0%	1.12×	1.29
Lorient or draw in 2nd half	37.5%	41.2%	57.5%	0.72×	2.43

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	52.5%	50.4%	56.7%	0.89×	1.98
Neither half drawn	47.5%	49.6%	43.3%	1.15×	2.02

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (DNB)	82.7%	83.6%	59.5%	1.40×	1.20
Lorient (DNB)	17.3%	16.4%	40.5%	0.40×	6.10

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to score first	68.1%	68.3%	49.4%	1.38×	1.46
Lorient to score first	29.4%	27.3%	44.1%	0.62×	3.66
No goal scored	2.5%	5.1%	6.6%	0.76×	19.77

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.0%	58.4%	53.6%	1.09×	1.71
Not both teams to score	38.0%	41.6%	46.4%	0.90×	2.40

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	54.8%	49.7%	43.6%	1.14×	2.01
Not both score & under 2.5	21.6%	24.3%	36.0%	0.67×	4.12
Not both score & over 2.5	16.4%	19.1%	10.6%	1.80×	5.25
Both score & under 2.5	7.2%	8.7%	10.1%	0.86×	11.55

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	77.8%	81.7%	84.8%	0.96×	1.23
Both teams to score 2+	22.2%	18.3%	15.2%	1.21×	5.45

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	61.0%	66.2%	70.0%	0.95×	1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half	39.0%	33.8%	30.0%	1.12×	2.96

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	47.8%	54.1%	57.8%	0.94×	1.85
Both score 2nd half only	30.6%	26.5%	23.9%	1.11×	3.78
Both score 1st half only	13.2%	10.3%	12.3%	0.84×	9.69
Both score in both halves	8.5%	6.5%	6.3%	1.03×	15.32

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.3%	82.0%	81.5%	1.01×	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	21.7%	18.0%	18.5%	0.97×	5.56

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	66.8%	67.2%	59.4%	1.13×	1.49
A half without a goal	33.2%	32.9%	40.6%	0.81×	3.04

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	42.3%	43.6%	30.8%	1.41×	2.30
2-3 goals	38.0%	36.9%	43.3%	0.85×	2.71
0-1 goals	11.8%	13.2%	22.7%	0.58×	7.57
7+ goals	7.9%	4.7%	3.5%	1.34×	21.50

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.7%	33.2%	1.08×	2.80
Lorient to score exactly 0	32.9%	33.9%	30.5%	1.11×	2.95
Lorient to score exactly 2	20.4%	22.0%	21.3%	1.03×	4.55
Lorient to score 3+	10.2%	10.4%	15.3%	0.68×	9.62

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to score 3+	47.4%	45.4%	23.1%	1.97×	2.20
Lens to score exactly 2	25.3%	26.9%	23.1%	1.17×	3.72
Lens to score exactly 1	19.7%	18.5%	31.6%	0.58×	5.41
Lens to score exactly 0	7.6%	7.4%	22.6%	0.33×	13.47

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens leading at HT	43.7%	43.6%	32.9%	1.33×	2.30
Draw at HT	37.9%	37.9%	38.7%	0.98×	2.64
Lorient leading at HT	18.4%	15.3%	28.6%	0.54×	6.54

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens -1: 1	47.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Lens -1: 2	31.2%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Lens -1: X	21.4%	23.8%	—	—	4.20

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (0:1)	47.4%	47.4%	25.1%	1.89×	2.11
Lorient (0:1)	31.2%	30.2%	54.0%	0.56×	3.31
Draw (0:1)	21.4%	23.4%	21.0%	1.11×	4.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (0:2)	52.6%	56.3%	74.9%	0.75×	1.78
Lens (0:2)	27.7%	25.7%	10.1%	2.54×	3.89
Draw (0:2)	19.7%	17.6%	15.2%	1.16×	5.70

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (0:3)	72.3%	75.6%	89.9%	0.84×	1.32
Draw (0:3)	14.0%	11.1%	6.2%	1.80×	9.01
Lens (0:3)	13.8%	11.1%	4.1%	2.70×	9.02

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (0:4)	86.2%	92.0%	95.9%	0.96×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	7.9%	5.2%	2.7%	1.93×	19.28
Lens (0:4)	5.8%	5.0%	1.6%	3.20×	19.81

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (1:0)	85.6%	88.3%	68.7%	1.28×	1.13
Draw (1:0)	9.2%	6.6%	14.5%	0.46×	15.11
Lorient (1:0)	5.2%	6.4%	16.9%	0.38×	15.53

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (2:0)	94.8%	94.3%	83.1%	1.13×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	3.7%	2.3%	10.0%	0.23×	44.15
Lorient (2:0)	1.5%	2.2%	7.1%	0.31×	45.03

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	59.7%	61.4%	47.2%	1.30×	1.63
1st half highest scoring	21.0%	24.8%	26.5%	0.94×	4.03
Halves equal	19.3%	19.6%	26.4%	0.74×	5.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to concede	67.1%	65.0%	69.5%	0.94×	1.54
Lens clean sheet	32.9%	35.0%	30.5%	1.15×	2.86

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens clean sheet in 1st half	63.0%	64.9%	57.7%	1.13×	1.54
Lens to concede in 1st half	37.0%	35.1%	42.3%	0.83×	2.85

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens over 2.5 corners	92.1%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Lens over 3.5 corners	85.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Lens over 4.5 corners	76.4%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Lens over 5.5 corners	66.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Lens over 6.5 corners	56.5%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Lens under 6.5 corners	43.5%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Lens under 5.5 corners	33.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Lens under 4.5 corners	23.6%	23.9%	—	—	4.19
Lens under 3.5 corners	14.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.75
Lens under 2.5 corners	7.9%	11.7%	—	—	8.53

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens over 0.5 goals	92.4%	93.3%	77.4%	1.21×	1.07
Lens under 3.5 goals	74.3%	73.4%	91.6%	0.80×	1.36
Lens over 1.5 goals	72.7%	73.4%	46.0%	1.60×	1.36
Lens under 2.5 goals	52.6%	52.5%	76.9%	0.68×	1.91
Lens over 2.5 goals	47.4%	47.5%	23.1%	2.06×	2.10
Lens under 1.5 goals	27.3%	26.6%	54.0%	0.49×	3.76
Lens over 3.5 goals	25.7%	26.6%	8.4%	3.17×	3.77
Lens under 0.5 goals	7.6%	6.7%	22.6%	0.30×	14.95

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens under 1.5 in 1st half	77.9%	77.5%	87.4%	0.89×	1.29
Lens over 0.5 in 1st half	58.6%	58.1%	47.4%	1.22×	1.72
Lens under 0.5 in 1st half	41.4%	41.9%	52.6%	0.80×	2.38
Lens over 1.5 in 1st half	22.1%	22.5%	12.6%	1.78×	4.44

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.9%	51.1%	42.3%	1.21×	1.96
Lorient (home no bet)	46.1%	48.9%	57.7%	0.85×	2.04

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens even goals	50.3%	52.1%	51.5%	1.01×	1.92
Lens odd goals	49.7%	47.9%	48.5%	0.99×	2.09

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	26.1%	28.4%	28.8%	0.99×	3.52
HT 1-0	23.0%	23.9%	21.2%	1.13×	4.19
HT 0-1	12.1%	10.9%	16.9%	0.64×	9.20
HT 1-1	10.6%	10.9%	9.5%	1.15×	9.21
HT 2-0	10.1%	10.8%	6.6%	1.64×	9.22
Any other HT score	7.1%	6.9%	4.7%	1.46×	14.44
HT 2-1	4.7%	2.2%	3.2%	0.69×	45.73
HT 0-2	2.8%	2.2%	5.5%	0.39×	45.89
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.2%	4.1%	0.53×	45.91
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.2%	0.8%	2.75×	46.02

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens at HT / Lens at FT	39.4%	40.2%	27.6%	1.45×	2.49
Draw at HT / Lens at FT	23.7%	22.9%	15.0%	1.52×	4.37
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	8.9%	6.1%	13.0%	0.47×	16.49
Lorient at HT / Lorient at FT	8.0%	6.1%	19.0%	0.32×	16.52
Lorient at HT / Lens at FT	5.7%	6.0%	3.6%	1.66×	16.59
Draw at HT / Lorient at FT	5.3%	6.0%	11.1%	0.54×	16.60
Lorient at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.3%	6.3%	0.53×	30.03
Lens at HT / Draw at FT	3.3%	3.3%	3.9%	0.84×	30.09
Lens at HT / Lorient at FT	1.1%	3.3%	1.6%	2.10×	30.18

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to score last	68.0%	68.7%	53.1%	1.29×	1.46
Lorient to score last	29.5%	26.4%	40.4%	0.65×	3.78
No goal scored	2.5%	5.1%	6.6%	0.76×	19.77

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.5%	94.9%	93.4%	1.02×	1.05
Lens to lead by 1 at any time	80.7%	80.9%	58.3%	1.39×	1.24
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	65.2%	67.9%	51.3%	1.32×	1.47
Lens to lead by 2 at any time	55.3%	54.1%	29.7%	1.82×	1.85
Lorient to lead by 1 at any time	35.0%	28.4%	49.1%	0.58×	3.52
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	34.6%	28.4%	20.2%	1.40×	3.52
Lens to lead by 3 at any time	32.0%	28.3%	12.0%	2.36×	3.53
Lorient to lead by 2 at any time	10.4%	10.1%	21.8%	0.46×	9.89
Lorient to lead by 3 at any time	2.6%	1.5%	8.4%	0.18×	66.00

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens most corners	80.1%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Lorient most corners	13.7%	10.7%	—	—	9.38
Corners level	6.3%	8.4%	—	—	11.93

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	80.8%	81.1%	85.0%	0.95×	1.23
2-6 goals	80.3%	81.1%	73.9%	1.10×	1.23
2-5 goals	71.6%	71.9%	68.9%	1.04×	1.39
1-4 goals	66.6%	68.2%	76.5%	0.89×	1.47
3-6 goals	63.3%	62.5%	50.7%	1.23×	1.60
2-4 goals	57.3%	56.6%	60.3%	0.94×	1.77
3-5 goals	54.5%	50.8%	45.7%	1.11×	1.97
1-3 goals	47.3%	46.4%	59.4%	0.78×	2.16
4-6 goals	42.3%	42.8%	30.8%	1.39×	2.34
3-4 goals	40.3%	42.7%	37.1%	1.15×	2.34
2-3 goals	38.0%	38.1%	43.3%	0.88×	2.62
4-5 goals	33.6%	33.1%	25.8%	1.29×	3.02
1-2 goals	26.3%	26.1%	39.5%	0.66×	3.83
5-6 goals	23.0%	19.9%	13.7%	1.44×	5.04
7+ goals	7.9%	4.7%	3.5%	1.35×	21.25

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens never behind	62.5%	69.0%	50.9%	1.36×	1.45
Lorient never behind	16.8%	22.0%	41.7%	0.53×	4.55

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	50.0%	50.7%	52.9%	0.96×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.0%	49.4%	47.1%	1.05×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.4%	51.9%	52.0%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.6%	48.1%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.5%	52.8%	49.3%	1.07×	1.89
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.5%	47.2%	50.7%	0.93×	2.12

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.5%	96.0%	93.4%	1.03×	1.04
Over 1.5 goals	88.2%	89.1%	77.3%	1.15×	1.12
Under 5.5 goals	83.3%	81.4%	91.5%	0.89×	1.23
Over 2.5 goals	71.2%	73.8%	54.0%	1.37×	1.36
Under 4.5 goals	69.1%	67.0%	82.9%	0.81×	1.49
Over 3.5 goals	50.2%	51.0%	34.1%	1.49×	1.96
Under 3.5 goals	49.8%	49.0%	65.9%	0.74×	2.04
Over 4.5 goals	30.9%	33.0%	17.1%	1.93×	3.03
Under 2.5 goals	28.8%	26.2%	46.0%	0.57×	3.81
Over 5.5 goals	16.7%	18.6%	8.5%	2.18×	5.39
Under 1.5 goals	11.8%	10.9%	22.7%	0.48×	9.14
Under 0.5 goals	2.5%	4.0%	6.6%	0.61×	24.77

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	91.3%	94.7%	96.3%	0.98×	1.06
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	85.8%	90.2%	70.4%	1.28×	1.11
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	80.6%	83.9%	90.7%	0.93×	1.19
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.5%	65.0%	42.6%	1.52×	1.54
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	61.7%	64.9%	79.4%	0.82×	1.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	38.3%	35.1%	20.6%	1.71×	2.85
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.5%	35.0%	57.4%	0.61×	2.85
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	19.4%	16.1%	9.3%	1.72×	6.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	14.2%	9.8%	29.6%	0.33×	10.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	8.7%	5.3%	3.7%	1.45×	18.88

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.7%	86.7%	87.7%	0.99×	1.15
Over 0.5 in 1st half	73.9%	71.0%	71.2%	1.00×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	61.2%	63.3%	66.5%	0.95×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	38.8%	36.7%	33.5%	1.10×	2.73
Under 0.5 in 1st half	26.1%	29.0%	28.8%	1.01×	3.44
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.3%	13.3%	12.3%	1.08×	7.50

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	90.4%	90.2%	81.5%	1.11×	1.11
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	67.9%	66.4%	48.7%	1.36×	1.51
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	58.5%	55.0%	75.2%	0.73×	1.82
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	41.5%	45.0%	24.8%	1.82×	2.22
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	32.1%	33.6%	51.3%	0.66×	2.97
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	9.6%	9.8%	18.5%	0.53×	10.19

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient not to score in both halves	82.3%	84.6%	77.6%	1.09×	1.18
Lens not to score in both halves	52.2%	56.7%	68.1%	0.83×	1.76
Lens to score in both halves	47.8%	43.3%	31.9%	1.36×	2.31
Lorient to score in both halves	17.7%	15.4%	22.4%	0.69×	6.48

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	62.0%	57.9%	53.6%	1.08×	1.73
Only Lens scores	30.3%	33.2%	24.0%	1.38×	3.01
Only Lorient scores	5.1%	7.5%	16.1%	0.46×	13.37
Neither team scores	2.5%	4.8%	6.6%	0.72×	20.86

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.0%	22.5%	20.1%	1.12×	4.45
Exactly 4 goals	19.3%	18.3%	17.2%	1.06×	5.46
Exactly 2 goals	17.1%	18.3%	23.4%	0.78×	5.46
6 or more goals	16.7%	18.3%	8.5%	2.15×	5.46
Exactly 5 goals	14.2%	11.7%	8.7%	1.34×	8.57
Exactly 1 goals	9.3%	7.6%	16.3%	0.47×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	2.5%	4.0%	6.6%	0.60×	25.29

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	67.9%	58.4%	48.7%	1.20×	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	22.5%	23.9%	33.0%	0.72×	4.18
No goals in 2nd half	9.6%	10.4%	18.5%	0.56×	9.58

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient not to win both halves	97.4%	97.3%	90.7%	1.07×	1.03
Lens not to win both halves	72.7%	73.5%	83.3%	0.88×	1.36
Lens to win both halves	27.3%	26.5%	16.7%	1.58×	3.78
Lorient to win both halves	2.6%	2.7%	9.3%	0.29×	37.21

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to win either half	78.9%	79.7%	58.6%	1.36×	1.25
Lorient to win neither half	70.2%	72.5%	54.0%	1.34×	1.38
Lorient to win either half	29.8%	27.5%	46.0%	0.60×	3.64
Lens to win neither half	21.1%	20.3%	41.4%	0.49×	4.93

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient not to win to nil	94.9%	93.9%	83.9%	1.12×	1.07
Lens not to win to nil	69.7%	65.5%	76.0%	0.86×	1.53
Lens to win to nil	30.3%	34.5%	24.0%	1.44×	2.90
Lorient to win to nil	5.1%	6.1%	16.1%	0.38×	16.44

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens by 3+	27.7%	28.8%	10.1%	2.85×	3.47
Lens by 1	21.4%	24.8%	21.0%	1.18×	4.03
Lens by 2	19.7%	17.2%	15.2%	1.13×	5.82
Draw	16.8%	17.2%	22.9%	0.75×	5.83
Lorient by 1	9.2%	6.2%	14.5%	0.43×	16.08
Lorient by 2	3.7%	2.2%	10.0%	0.22×	45.53
Lorient by 3+	1.5%	2.2%	7.1%	0.30×	46.19

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Lens 1.10 xGLorient 1.03 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Lens attacking right Lorient attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
4'	Lorient	Panos Katseris	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Noah Cadiou
7'	Lorient	Noah Cadiou	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Mamadou Koné
9'	Lens	Florian Thauvin	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Michal Skóras
21'	Lens	Ruben Aguilar	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Michal Skóras
27'	Lorient	Mamadou Koné	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Jean-Victor Makengo
28'	Lens	Florian Thauvin	0.37	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Abdallah Sima
36'	Lens	Amadou Haidara	0.05	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Thorgan Hazard
38'	Lens	Abdallah Sima	0.02	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Florian Thauvin
38'	Lens	Pierre Ganiou	0.05	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Florian Thauvin
42'	Lens	Kyllian Antonio	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Ruben Aguilar
43'	Lens	Amadou Haidara	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Kyllian Antonio
48'	Lens	Abdallah Sima	0.11	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Florian Thauvin
53'	Lorient	Mamadou Koné	0.54	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Panos Katseris
59'	Lorient	Jean-Victor Makengo	0.13	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Arsène Kouassi
61'	Lens	Andrija Bulatovic	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
61'	Lens	Thorgan Hazard	0.05	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Abdallah Sima
76'	Lens	Michaël Cuisance	0.05	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	—
78'	Lens	Andrija Bulatovic	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Michaël Cuisance
79'	Lorient	Arthur Avom	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Ibrahima Baldé
80'	Lens	Florian Thauvin	0.01	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Michaël Cuisance
84'	Lens	Odsonne Edouard	0.09	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Florian Sotoca
87'	Lorient	Ibrahima Baldé	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Jean-Victor Makengo
91'	Lens	Souleymane Sagnan	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
92'	Lorient	Isak Jensen	0.03	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
93'	Lens	Abdallah Sima	0.05	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Michal Skóras

Players

Lens

Player	Min	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Florian Thauvin AMC	90	3	3	0.40	0.17	0.67
Abdallah Sima FW	90	3	2	0.17	0.42	0.53
Pierre Ganiou DC	90	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.54
Kyllian Antonio DC	90	1	1	0.02	0.06	0.56
Michal Skóras DML	90	0	3	0.00	0.14	0.64
Robin Risser GK	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.37
Ruben Aguilar DMR	71	1	1	0.07	0.02	0.46
Thorgan Hazard AMC	71	1	1	0.05	0.05	0.48
Souleymane Sagnan Sub	67	1	0	0.05	0.00	0.45
Amadou Haidara MC	62	2	0	0.12	0.00	0.26
Yacine Titraoui MC	61	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.39
Andrija Bulatovic Sub	29	2	0	0.03	0.00	0.03
Michaël Cuisance Sub	28	1	2	0.05	0.03	0.08
Matthieu Udol DC	23	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.09
Odsonne Edouard Sub	19	1	0	0.09	0.00	0.02
Florian Sotoca Sub	19	0	1	0.00	0.09	0.01

Lorient

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Jean-Victor Makengo AMC	90	0	0	1	2	0.13	0.19	0.45
Noah Cadiou MC	90	0	0	1	1	0.02	0.07	0.22
Nathaniel Adjei DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.36
Montassar Talbi DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.20
Yvon Mvogo GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.06
Arsène Kouassi DML	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.13	0.26
Dembo Sylla DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.26
Gabin Bernardeau AMC	76	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
Mamadou Koné FW	68	1	0	2	1	0.64	0.02	0.66
Panos Katseris DMR	68	0	1	1	1	0.07	0.54	0.61
Noah Mbamba-Muanda MC	68	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.74
Ibrahima Baldé Sub	22	0	0	1	1	0.09	0.06	0.15
Arthur Avom Sub	22	0	0	1	0	0.06	0.00	0.15
Théo Le Bris Sub	22	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.06
Isak Jensen Sub	14	0	0	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.06

Lens v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

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