Lens v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Lens

19:45 UTC

Marseille

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 393h before kick-off

Lens win

51.1%

model 52.4%

Draw

22.2%

model 21.0%

Marseille win

26.7%

model 26.5%

512227

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.2%
1-1 8.7%
2-2 6.7%
3-1 6.4%
1-2 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	68.9%	Under 2.5	31.1%
BTTS yes	67.2%	BTTS no	32.8%
Lens 1+	87.7%	Lens 2+	62.0%
Marseille 1+	76.6%	Marseille 2+	42.7%

Expected goals 2.10 – 1.45. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Over 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 43%

62.2% fair odds 1.61

strong signal · 872 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lens not to win both halves

Win both halves · usually 84%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 590 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Lens carry the stronger rating, 1672 Elo against 1609.
Lens have created 2.16 xG a match over their last five while Marseille have allowed 2.17.
At home Lens average 2.28 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Lens have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 26.7% for Marseille and 22.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.10 for Lens and 1.45 for Marseille.

Why Lens

Lens carry the stronger rating, 1672 Elo against 1609. Lens have created 2.16 xG a match over their last five while Marseille have allowed 2.17. At home Lens average 2.28 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Marseille can win

Marseille have created 1.94 xG a match over their last five while Lens have allowed 1.39. Away from home Marseille average 1.59 xG a match.

Key players

Lens's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Florian Thauvin (0.66), Odsonne Edouard (0.42), Adrien Thomasson (0.41). Marseille's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.58), Amine Gouiri (0.54), Mason Greenwood (0.54).

Availability

1 of Lens's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Lens's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Marseille's top three contributors did not start their last match. Reported unavailable for Marseille: Timothy Weah (suspended).

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lens: 52% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.34 xG a match from set pieces. Marseille: 55% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 19.0 faced, 0.31 xG a match from set pieces. Lens's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Lens are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.2%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lens are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WLWWLLDLWW last 10 scored 19 from 21.6 xG conceded 13 from 13.9 xG

Marseille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWWLLLLWW last 10 scored 18 from 19.4 xG conceded 14 from 21.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	522127	2.10–1.45	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	522027	2.23–1.59	2-1 9%	73%	71%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to win	57.7%	54.0%	46.2%	1.17×	1.85
Marseille to win	23.3%	24.4%	31.3%	0.78×	4.09
Draw	19.0%	19.4%	22.6%	0.86×	5.15

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens & both teams score	37.9%	33.3%	22.7%	1.46×	3.00
Lens & not both score	19.8%	18.0%	23.6%	0.76×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	17.1%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.57
Marseille & both teams score	16.5%	18.0%	15.8%	1.14×	5.57
Marseille & not both score	6.8%	8.3%	15.7%	0.53×	12.01
Draw & not both score	1.9%	4.8%	6.4%	0.76×	20.64

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens & over 1.5	53.1%	48.9%	36.2%	1.35×	2.05
Lens & over 2.5	47.4%	45.1%	28.8%	1.56×	2.22
Lens & over 3.5	34.2%	30.8%	16.8%	1.83×	3.25
Lens & under 3.5	23.5%	21.6%	29.5%	0.73×	4.63
Marseille & over 1.5	20.4%	21.6%	25.3%	0.86×	4.63
Marseille & over 2.5	18.2%	18.0%	19.8%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.1%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Marseille & over 3.5	11.7%	12.8%	11.2%	1.14×	7.79
Marseille & under 3.5	11.6%	12.8%	20.2%	0.63×	7.79
Lens & under 2.5	10.3%	12.8%	17.6%	0.73×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	10.1%	12.8%	6.6%	1.93×	7.79
Draw & over 3.5	10.1%	12.8%	6.6%	1.93×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	8.9%	7.9%	16.1%	0.49×	12.63
Draw & under 3.5	8.9%	7.9%	16.1%	0.49×	12.63
Marseille & under 2.5	5.1%	7.9%	11.7%	0.68×	12.63
Lens & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	10.2%	0.47×	20.81
Marseille & under 1.5	2.9%	4.8%	6.2%	0.77×	20.82
Draw & under 1.5	1.9%	4.8%	6.4%	0.76×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (1UP)	74.4%	75.7%	59.0%	1.28×	1.32
Marseille (1UP)	46.6%	43.9%	48.8%	0.90×	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (2UP)	57.7%	55.1%	48.2%	1.14×	1.81
Marseille (2UP)	23.3%	23.4%	33.6%	0.70×	4.27

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to win 2nd half	58.5%	61.4%	42.0%	1.46×	1.63
2nd half drawn	23.3%	24.3%	31.3%	0.77×	4.12
Marseille to win 2nd half	18.2%	18.1%	26.9%	0.67×	5.52

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 1.5 in 2nd half	78.6%	79.1%	82.3%	0.96×	1.26
Marseille over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.8%	54.6%	50.2%	1.09×	1.83
Marseille under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.2%	45.4%	49.8%	0.91×	2.20
Marseille over 1.5 in 2nd half	21.4%	20.9%	17.7%	1.18×	4.79

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.7%	82.5%	62.2%	1.33×	1.21
Lens over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.4%	55.1%	24.5%	2.25×	1.82
Lens under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.6%	44.9%	75.5%	0.59×	2.23
Lens under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.3%	17.5%	37.8%	0.46×	5.72

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (+2.5)	79.8%	78.5%	90.1%	0.87×	1.27
Lens (+0.5)	76.7%	78.5%	68.7%	1.14×	1.27
Marseille (+1.5)	62.9%	62.9%	75.5%	0.83×	1.59
Lens (-0.5)	57.7%	57.0%	46.2%	1.23×	1.75
Marseille (+0.5)	42.3%	43.0%	53.8%	0.80×	2.33
Lens (-1.5)	37.1%	37.1%	24.5%	1.51×	2.70
Marseille (-0.5)	23.3%	21.5%	31.3%	0.69×	4.65
Lens (-2.5)	20.2%	21.5%	9.9%	2.17×	4.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to concede	91.3%	91.8%	78.1%	1.17×	1.09
Marseille clean sheet	8.7%	8.2%	21.9%	0.37×	12.21

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille clean sheet in 1st half	50.4%	50.5%	51.8%	0.97×	1.98
Marseille to concede in 1st half	49.6%	49.5%	48.2%	1.03×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to concede in 2nd half	82.7%	81.0%	62.2%	1.30×	1.24
Marseille clean sheet in 2nd half	17.3%	19.0%	37.8%	0.50×	5.25

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 6.5 corners	86.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Marseille under 5.5 corners	77.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Marseille over 2.5 corners	67.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Marseille under 4.5 corners	65.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Marseille under 3.5 corners	50.3%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Marseille over 3.5 corners	49.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Marseille over 4.5 corners	34.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Marseille under 2.5 corners	33.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Marseille over 5.5 corners	22.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Marseille over 6.5 corners	13.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 3.5 goals	93.1%	92.3%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Marseille under 2.5 goals	80.2%	81.4%	84.5%	0.96×	1.23
Marseille over 0.5 goals	78.3%	76.3%	70.2%	1.09×	1.31
Marseille under 1.5 goals	54.8%	53.6%	63.2%	0.85×	1.87
Marseille over 1.5 goals	45.2%	46.4%	36.8%	1.26×	2.15
Marseille under 0.5 goals	21.7%	23.7%	29.8%	0.80×	4.21
Marseille over 2.5 goals	19.8%	18.6%	15.5%	1.20×	5.39
Marseille over 3.5 goals	6.9%	7.7%	6.4%	1.21×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 1.5 in 1st half	85.6%	89.2%	87.7%	1.02×	1.12
Marseille under 0.5 in 1st half	51.4%	55.4%	57.9%	0.96×	1.80
Marseille over 0.5 in 1st half	48.6%	44.6%	42.1%	1.06×	2.24
Marseille over 1.5 in 1st half	14.4%	10.8%	12.3%	0.88×	9.27

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille scores more in 2nd half	37.7%	37.3%	34.4%	1.08×	2.68
Marseille scores equally in both	36.1%	37.3%	41.1%	0.91×	2.68
Marseille scores more in 1st half	26.3%	26.3%	24.7%	1.06×	3.81

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (away no bet)	75.2%	73.5%	67.2%	1.09×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	24.8%	26.5%	32.8%	0.81×	3.77

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille even goals	52.4%	52.6%	55.7%	0.94×	1.90
Marseille odd goals	47.6%	47.4%	44.3%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	71.2%	76.5%	82.6%	0.93×	1.31
Both halves over 1.5 goals	28.8%	23.5%	17.4%	1.35×	4.25

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	83.9%	78.9%	65.9%	1.20×	1.27
Both halves under 1.5 goals	16.1%	21.1%	34.1%	0.62×	4.74

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	75.5%	75.3%	60.5%	1.24×	1.33
Lens to score 2+ in a row	58.9%	55.3%	38.6%	1.43×	1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row	36.7%	36.6%	22.3%	1.64×	2.73
Marseille to score 2+ in a row	30.8%	29.1%	28.0%	1.04×	3.43
Lens to score 3+ in a row	28.9%	25.2%	13.8%	1.83×	3.96
Marseille to score 3+ in a row	8.9%	5.6%	9.2%	0.61×	17.83

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens corners (+3.5)	91.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Lens corners (+2.5)	86.5%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Lens corners (+1.5)	79.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Marseille corners (+3.5)	68.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Marseille corners (+2.5)	59.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Lens corners (-1.5)	51.1%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Marseille corners (+1.5)	48.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Lens corners (-2.5)	40.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Lens corners (-3.5)	31.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Marseille corners (-1.5)	20.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Marseille corners (-2.5)	13.5%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Marseille corners (-3.5)	8.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	44.6%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
12+ corners	28.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
9-11 corners	27.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	65.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	63.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	55.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	54.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	45.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	44.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	36.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	34.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	28.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	21.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	11.7%	11.5%	5.2%	2.22×	8.72
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.50
1-1	7.1%	7.4%	9.9%	0.75×	13.51
2-2	6.6%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
3-1	7.0%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.51
1-2	5.4%	7.4%	6.4%	1.17×	13.51
2-0	5.6%	7.4%	7.5%	0.98×	13.51
3-2	5.4%	7.4%	2.8%	2.64×	13.51
0-0	1.9%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.31
0-1	2.9%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.30
0-2	2.2%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.31
0-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
1-0	4.6%	1.7%	10.2%	0.17×	58.29
1-3	2.7%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.30
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
2-3	3.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.30
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.31
3-0	4.6%	1.7%	3.5%	0.48×	58.29
3-3	2.7%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.30
3-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.31
4-0	2.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.30
4-1	4.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.30
4-2	3.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.30
4-3	1.7%	1.7%	0.4%	3.87×	58.31
4-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.3%	5.80×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (2nd half DNB)	76.3%	79.3%	60.9%	1.30×	1.26
Marseille (2nd half DNB)	23.7%	20.7%	39.1%	0.53×	4.82

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens leading at HT (DNB)	50.9%	54.7%	54.1%	1.01×	1.83
Marseille leading at HT (DNB)	49.1%	45.3%	45.9%	0.99×	2.21

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or Marseille (12)	81.0%	80.6%	77.4%	1.04×	1.24
Lens or draw (1X)	76.7%	75.6%	68.7%	1.10×	1.32
Marseille or draw (X2)	42.3%	46.0%	53.8%	0.86×	2.18

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw at HT	70.1%	75.0%	71.6%	1.05×	1.33
Marseille or draw at HT	69.0%	66.7%	66.6%	1.00×	1.50
Lens or Marseille at HT	60.9%	61.6%	61.6%	1.00×	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw (1UP)	76.7%	84.0%	73.1%	1.15×	1.19
Marseille or draw (1UP)	46.6%	53.2%	61.5%	0.86×	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw in 2nd half	81.8%	81.9%	73.1%	1.12×	1.22
Lens or Marseille in 2nd half	76.7%	75.7%	68.7%	1.10×	1.32
Marseille or draw in 2nd half	41.5%	38.6%	58.1%	0.66×	2.59

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.3%	50.1%	57.0%	0.88×	2.00
Neither half drawn	46.7%	49.9%	43.0%	1.16×	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (DNB)	71.2%	71.5%	59.6%	1.20×	1.40
Marseille (DNB)	28.8%	28.5%	40.4%	0.71×	3.51

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to score first	60.4%	64.4%	50.3%	1.28×	1.55
Marseille to score first	37.8%	32.8%	43.5%	0.75×	3.05
No goal scored	1.9%	4.2%	6.4%	0.67×	23.63

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	71.5%	62.5%	54.7%	1.14×	1.60
Not both teams to score	28.5%	37.5%	45.3%	0.83×	2.67

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	64.4%	50.5%	44.9%	1.13×	1.98
Not both score & under 2.5	17.2%	21.5%	35.3%	0.61×	4.64
Not both score & over 2.5	11.3%	12.4%	10.2%	1.21×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	7.1%	8.3%	9.9%	0.84×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	68.4%	71.5%	84.5%	0.85×	1.40
Both teams to score 2+	31.6%	28.5%	15.5%	1.84×	3.50

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	52.2%	51.9%	69.4%	0.75×	1.93
Both teams to score in 2nd half	47.8%	48.1%	30.6%	1.57×	2.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	39.6%	45.1%	57.2%	0.79×	2.22
Both score 2nd half only	36.3%	43.5%	24.2%	1.79×	2.30
Both score 1st half only	12.6%	10.7%	12.4%	0.86×	9.36
Both score in both halves	11.5%	10.7%	6.5%	1.64×	9.38

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	75.9%	81.1%	81.2%	1.00×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	24.1%	18.9%	18.8%	1.01×	5.30

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	68.7%	66.5%	59.7%	1.12×	1.50
A half without a goal	31.3%	33.5%	40.3%	0.83×	2.99

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	45.4%	47.2%	30.9%	1.53×	2.12
2-3 goals	34.6%	30.8%	43.3%	0.71×	3.25
7+ goals	10.6%	16.9%	3.7%	4.57×	5.92
0-1 goals	9.4%	7.7%	22.5%	0.34×	13.07

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score exactly 1	33.2%	33.8%	33.5%	1.01×	2.96
Marseille to score exactly 2	25.3%	27.4%	21.4%	1.28×	3.66
Marseille to score exactly 0	21.7%	22.3%	29.8%	0.75×	4.49
Marseille to score 3+	19.8%	19.6%	15.5%	1.26×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to score 3+	44.0%	35.3%	22.6%	1.56×	2.83
Lens to score exactly 2	26.0%	26.5%	24.1%	1.10×	3.77
Lens to score exactly 1	21.3%	23.3%	31.8%	0.73×	4.29
Lens to score exactly 0	8.7%	10.3%	21.9%	0.47×	9.70

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.1%	38.4%	38.4%	1.00×	2.60
Lens leading at HT	31.0%	33.3%	33.4%	1.00×	3.01
Marseille leading at HT	29.9%	25.0%	28.4%	0.88×	4.00

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens -1: 2	42.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Lens -1: 1	37.1%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Lens -1: X	20.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:1)	42.3%	42.6%	53.8%	0.79×	2.35
Lens (0:1)	37.1%	37.3%	24.5%	1.52×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	20.6%	24.2%	21.9%	1.11×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:2)	62.9%	67.1%	75.5%	0.89×	1.49
Lens (0:2)	20.2%	20.3%	9.9%	2.05×	4.94
Draw (0:2)	16.9%	15.3%	14.8%	1.03×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:3)	79.8%	80.6%	90.1%	0.89×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	10.9%	9.9%	5.9%	1.68×	10.08
Lens (0:3)	9.3%	5.8%	4.1%	1.41×	17.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:4)	90.7%	94.5%	95.9%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.7%	4.6%	2.8%	1.64×	21.77
Lens (0:4)	3.7%	1.2%	1.5%	0.83×	81.70

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (1:0)	76.7%	78.7%	68.7%	1.15×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	12.9%	12.7%	14.6%	0.87×	7.87
Marseille (1:0)	10.4%	12.7%	16.8%	0.75×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (2:0)	89.6%	88.5%	83.2%	1.06×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	6.6%	6.4%	9.9%	0.64×	15.70
Marseille (2:0)	3.8%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.59

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	64.6%	64.6%	48.2%	1.34×	1.55
1st half highest scoring	18.0%	19.4%	26.0%	0.75×	5.15
Halves equal	17.4%	19.3%	26.0%	0.74×	5.19

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to concede	78.3%	76.1%	70.2%	1.08×	1.31
Lens clean sheet	21.7%	23.9%	29.8%	0.80×	4.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens clean sheet in 1st half	51.4%	55.4%	57.9%	0.96×	1.80
Lens to concede in 1st half	48.6%	44.6%	42.1%	1.06×	2.24

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to concede in 2nd half	57.8%	54.9%	50.2%	1.09×	1.82
Lens clean sheet in 2nd half	42.2%	45.1%	49.8%	0.91×	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens over 2.5 corners	83.9%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lens over 3.5 corners	71.8%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Lens under 6.5 corners	65.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Lens over 4.5 corners	58.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Lens under 5.5 corners	54.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Lens over 5.5 corners	45.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Lens under 4.5 corners	41.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Lens over 6.5 corners	34.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Lens under 3.5 corners	28.2%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Lens under 2.5 corners	16.1%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens over 0.5 goals	91.3%	92.2%	78.1%	1.18×	1.08
Lens under 3.5 goals	77.1%	77.7%	91.6%	0.85×	1.29
Lens over 1.5 goals	70.0%	74.2%	46.5%	1.60×	1.35
Lens under 2.5 goals	56.0%	58.6%	77.4%	0.76×	1.71
Lens over 2.5 goals	44.0%	41.4%	22.6%	1.83×	2.41
Lens under 1.5 goals	30.0%	25.8%	53.5%	0.48×	3.88
Lens over 3.5 goals	22.9%	22.3%	8.4%	2.65×	4.49
Lens under 0.5 goals	8.7%	7.8%	21.9%	0.36×	12.87

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens under 1.5 in 1st half	85.0%	83.9%	87.1%	0.96×	1.19
Lens under 0.5 in 1st half	50.4%	50.3%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Lens over 0.5 in 1st half	49.6%	49.7%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01
Lens over 1.5 in 1st half	15.0%	16.1%	12.9%	1.26×	6.20

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens scores more in 2nd half	63.1%	63.1%	40.9%	1.54×	1.58
Lens scores equally in both	22.8%	21.2%	36.6%	0.58×	4.71
Lens scores more in 1st half	14.1%	14.1%	22.6%	0.62×	7.10

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (home no bet)	55.1%	56.4%	58.1%	0.97×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	44.9%	43.6%	41.9%	1.04×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens even goals	50.4%	50.7%	51.8%	0.98×	1.97
Lens odd goals	49.6%	49.3%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.9%	27.9%	28.5%	0.98×	3.58
HT 1-0	17.7%	18.6%	21.4%	0.87×	5.38
HT 0-1	17.3%	18.6%	16.8%	1.10×	5.38
HT 1-1	11.8%	11.0%	9.5%	1.17×	9.08
HT 2-0	6.1%	6.9%	6.8%	1.01×	14.51
Any other HT score	6.1%	6.9%	4.6%	1.51×	14.50
HT 0-2	5.7%	6.9%	5.2%	1.33×	14.51
HT 1-2	3.9%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.02
HT 2-1	4.0%	2.4%	3.3%	0.73×	42.01
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.4%	0.7%	3.21×	42.19

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens at HT / Lens at FT	26.6%	27.2%	27.8%	0.98×	3.68
Draw at HT / Lens at FT	22.9%	21.8%	15.1%	1.45×	4.58
Marseille at HT / Marseille at FT	14.8%	12.7%	18.9%	0.67×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.1%	6.0%	12.7%	0.48×	16.57
Marseille at HT / Lens at FT	8.2%	6.0%	3.7%	1.63×	16.60
Draw at HT / Marseille at FT	7.1%	6.0%	10.9%	0.55×	16.63
Marseille at HT / Draw at FT	6.8%	6.0%	6.1%	0.99×	16.64
Lens at HT / Draw at FT	3.1%	3.5%	4.1%	0.84×	28.65
Lens at HT / Marseille at FT	1.4%	3.5%	1.8%	1.96×	28.71

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to score last	60.3%	62.0%	53.0%	1.17×	1.61
Marseille to score last	37.8%	38.7%	40.8%	0.95×	2.59
No goal scored	1.9%	4.2%	6.4%	0.67×	23.63

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	98.1%	95.7%	93.6%	1.02×	1.05
Lens to lead by 1 at any time	74.4%	74.4%	59.0%	1.26×	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	64.4%	61.5%	51.6%	1.19×	1.63
Lens to lead by 2 at any time	46.9%	44.5%	30.0%	1.48×	2.25
Marseille to lead by 1 at any time	46.6%	44.5%	48.8%	0.91×	2.25
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	31.1%	29.8%	19.8%	1.50×	3.36
Lens to lead by 3 at any time	25.0%	19.7%	11.7%	1.69×	5.08
Marseille to lead by 2 at any time	18.4%	15.0%	21.7%	0.69×	6.68
Marseille to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.7%	8.3%	0.81×	14.96

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens most corners	61.6%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Marseille most corners	28.6%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	9.8%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	80.0%	83.4%	74.0%	1.13×	1.20
1-5 goals	77.2%	78.7%	85.2%	0.92×	1.27
2-5 goals	69.7%	68.8%	69.1%	1.00×	1.45
3-6 goals	65.1%	68.8%	51.4%	1.34×	1.45
1-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	76.8%	0.82×	1.58
3-5 goals	54.9%	53.2%	46.5%	1.14×	1.88
2-4 goals	54.2%	53.2%	60.7%	0.88×	1.88
4-6 goals	45.4%	48.5%	30.9%	1.57×	2.06
1-3 goals	42.1%	43.6%	59.4%	0.73×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.3%	39.2%	38.1%	1.03×	2.55
4-5 goals	35.1%	39.2%	26.0%	1.51×	2.55
2-3 goals	34.6%	35.2%	43.3%	0.81×	2.84
5-6 goals	25.8%	30.2%	13.4%	2.25×	3.31
1-2 goals	22.4%	24.5%	38.8%	0.63×	4.08
7+ goals	10.6%	14.8%	3.7%	4.01×	6.76

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens never behind	51.5%	62.4%	51.2%	1.22×	1.60
Marseille never behind	23.7%	24.7%	41.0%	0.60×	4.05

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	47.7%	1.07×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	52.3%	0.94×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.4%	51.7%	51.6%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.6%	48.3%	48.4%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.3%	51.9%	50.1%	1.04×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.7%	48.1%	49.9%	0.96×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	98.1%	95.4%	93.6%	1.02×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	77.5%	1.19×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	79.1%	77.3%	91.4%	0.85×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	75.7%	77.3%	54.9%	1.41×	1.29
Under 4.5 goals	63.6%	61.7%	83.0%	0.74×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	56.0%	58.6%	34.4%	1.70×	1.71
Under 3.5 goals	44.0%	41.4%	65.6%	0.63×	2.42
Over 4.5 goals	36.4%	38.3%	17.0%	2.25×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	24.3%	22.7%	45.1%	0.50×	4.40
Over 5.5 goals	20.9%	22.7%	8.6%	2.65×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	22.5%	0.34×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	1.9%	4.6%	6.4%	0.72×	21.89

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	89.0%	86.7%	71.0%	1.22×	1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	88.2%	86.7%	96.1%	0.90×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	75.3%	75.9%	90.6%	0.84×	1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	69.8%	67.5%	43.3%	1.56×	1.48
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	54.7%	51.9%	79.4%	0.65×	1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	45.3%	48.1%	20.6%	2.34×	2.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	30.2%	32.5%	56.7%	0.57×	3.07
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	24.7%	24.1%	9.4%	2.58×	4.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	11.8%	13.3%	3.9%	3.42×	7.54
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	11.0%	13.3%	29.0%	0.46×	7.54

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.5%	85.9%	87.4%	0.98×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.1%	71.9%	71.5%	1.01×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.9%	63.2%	66.5%	0.95×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.1%	36.8%	33.5%	1.10×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.9%	28.1%	28.5%	0.99×	3.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.5%	14.1%	12.6%	1.12×	7.09

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	92.7%	90.1%	81.8%	1.10×	1.11
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	73.6%	77.4%	49.8%	1.56×	1.29
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	51.4%	53.1%	75.3%	0.71×	1.88
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	48.6%	46.9%	24.7%	1.90×	2.13
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	26.4%	22.6%	50.2%	0.45×	4.43
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	7.3%	9.9%	18.2%	0.54×	10.14

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille not to score in both halves	71.9%	73.9%	77.8%	0.95×	1.35
Lens not to score in both halves	59.0%	58.2%	67.8%	0.86×	1.72
Lens to score in both halves	41.0%	41.8%	32.2%	1.30×	2.39
Marseille to score in both halves	28.1%	26.1%	22.2%	1.18×	3.83

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	71.5%	66.1%	54.7%	1.21×	1.51
Only Lens scores	19.8%	16.0%	23.6%	0.68×	6.24
Only Marseille scores	6.8%	7.1%	15.7%	0.45×	14.04
Neither team scores	1.9%	4.6%	6.4%	0.72×	21.77

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	20.9%	22.6%	8.6%	2.63×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	19.7%	17.5%	20.7%	0.84×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	19.6%	17.5%	17.6%	0.99×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	15.6%	17.5%	8.6%	2.04×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	14.9%	12.1%	22.7%	0.53×	8.24
Exactly 1 goals	7.5%	7.6%	16.2%	0.47×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	1.9%	4.5%	6.4%	0.70×	22.41

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.0%	35.9%	38.1%	0.94×	2.79
No goals in 1st half	25.9%	28.2%	28.5%	0.99×	3.55
2 goals in 1st half	23.6%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	15.5%	15.6%	12.6%	1.24×	6.42

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	73.6%	69.9%	49.8%	1.40×	1.43
1 goal in 2nd half	19.1%	16.5%	32.2%	0.51×	6.06
No goals in 2nd half	7.3%	10.0%	18.2%	0.55×	9.99

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille not to win both halves	94.6%	94.2%	90.7%	1.04×	1.06
Lens not to win both halves	81.9%	83.8%	83.6%	1.00×	1.19
Lens to win both halves	18.1%	16.2%	16.4%	0.99×	6.19
Marseille to win both halves	5.4%	5.8%	9.3%	0.63×	17.13

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to win either half	71.4%	72.9%	58.9%	1.24×	1.37
Marseille to win neither half	57.4%	59.1%	54.1%	1.09×	1.69
Marseille to win either half	42.6%	40.9%	45.9%	0.89×	2.44
Lens to win neither half	28.6%	27.1%	41.1%	0.66×	3.70

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille not to win to nil	93.2%	92.1%	84.3%	1.09×	1.09
Lens not to win to nil	80.2%	83.1%	76.4%	1.09×	1.20
Lens to win to nil	19.8%	16.9%	23.6%	0.72×	5.91
Marseille to win to nil	6.8%	7.9%	15.7%	0.50×	12.67

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens by 1	20.6%	24.1%	21.9%	1.10×	4.15
Lens by 3+	20.2%	24.1%	9.9%	2.44×	4.15
Draw	19.0%	17.1%	22.6%	0.75×	5.86
Lens by 2	16.9%	17.0%	14.8%	1.15×	5.87
Marseille by 1	12.9%	11.8%	14.6%	0.80×	8.51
Marseille by 2	6.6%	7.2%	9.9%	0.73×	13.91
Marseille by 3+	3.8%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	36.78