Lens v Metz — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 5
On target
7 – 0
Shots in box
19 – 4
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.61 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+0.76 – -0.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lens win
76.3%
Draw
14.6%
Metz win
9.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLWDDWLWWL last 10
scored 23
from 27.4 xG
conceded 16
from 13.9 xG
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 11.1 xG
conceded 23
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.55–0.76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.69–0.70 | 2-0 12% | 66% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lens 2.24 xGMetz 0.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lens attacking right
Metz attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Lens |
Saud Abdulhamid | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Ganiou |
| 6' |
 Metz |
Fode Toure | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alpha Touré |
| 14' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.14 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 14' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.14 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 17' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 24' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Odsonne Edouard |
| 24' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 31' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Saud Abdulhamid |
| 34' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 42' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pierre Ganiou |
| 43' |
Lens |
Saud Abdulhamid | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Abdallah Sima |
| 45' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Adrien Thomasson |
| 50' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abdallah Sima |
| 51' |
Lens |
Amadou Haidara | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matthieu Udol |
| 58' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 59' |
Metz |
Bouna Sarr | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 62' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 64' |
Metz |
Alpha Touré | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathan Mbala |
| 69' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 77' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Andrija Bulatovic |
| 80' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Ganiou |
| 83' |
Metz |
Alpha Touré | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 84' |
Metz |
Giorgi Tsitaishvili | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Habib Diallo |
| 90' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Andrija Bulatovic |
| 92' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.52 | 0.86 |
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.16 | 0.52 | 1.16 |
| Saud Abdulhamid DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.53 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Pierre Ganiou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Abdallah Sima AMC | 87 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.19 | 0.76 |
| Mamadou Sangaré MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Odsonne Edouard FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.50 |
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 67 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| Nidal Celik DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amadou Haidara Sub | 40 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Rayan Fofana Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrija Bulatovic Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Anthony Bermont Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Metz
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpha Touré MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Sadibou Sané DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Maxime Colin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jonathan Fischer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Habib Diallo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Fode Toure DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Bouna Sarr DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Giorgi Kvilitaia FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Believe Munongo MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Boubacar Traore MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jessy Deminguet Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Gauthier Hein Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Nathan Mbala Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Michel Mboula Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |