Lens v Paris FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Lens

18:45 UTC

Paris FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 56h before kick-off

Lens win

62.7%

model 61.6%

Draw

18.7%

model 19.9%

Paris FC win

18.6%

model 18.5%

631919

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.8%
1-1 9.0%
2-0 8.8%
1-0 8.0%
3-1 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	64.2%	Under 2.5	35.8%
BTTS yes	59.8%	BTTS no	40.2%
Lens 1+	88.8%	Lens 2+	64.2%
Paris FC 1+	67.4%	Paris FC 2+	30.8%

Expected goals 2.19 – 1.12. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

99/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Lens to score 2+ in a row

Consecutive goals · usually 39%

59.3% fair odds 1.69

strong signal · 721 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lens or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 73%

83.7% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Lens have created 2.16 xG a match over their last five while Paris FC have allowed 0.99.
At home Lens average 2.28 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Lens have an estimated 62.7% win probability, against 18.7% for the draw and 18.6% for Paris FC. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.19 for Lens and 1.12 for Paris FC.

Why Lens

Lens have created 2.16 xG a match over their last five while Paris FC have allowed 0.99. At home Lens average 2.28 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.7%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Paris FC can win

Paris FC have created 2.02 xG a match over their last five while Lens have allowed 1.39. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Paris FC average 1.88 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Lens were missing 1.43 expected goal involvements a match against 0.85.

Key players

Lens's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Florian Thauvin (0.66), Odsonne Edouard (0.42), Adrien Thomasson (0.41). Paris FC's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Lassine Sinayoko (0.60), Ilan Kebbal (0.32), Marshall Munetsi (0.32).

Availability

1 of Lens's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Lens's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Paris FC's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lens: 52% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.34 xG a match from set pieces. Paris FC: 52% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Lens are the model's most likely outcome at 62.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.8%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lens are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WLWWLLDLWW last 10 scored 19 from 21.6 xG conceded 13 from 13.9 xG

Paris FC have scored 19 from 20.2 expected and conceded 10 from 9.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WLWDWWDWLW last 10 scored 19 from 20.2 xG conceded 10 from 9.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	622019	2.19–1.12	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	631918	2.24–1.11	2-1 10%	65%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to win	63.4%	58.2%	46.2%	1.26×	1.72
Draw	18.3%	19.4%	22.6%	0.86×	5.16
Paris FC to win	18.3%	19.4%	31.3%	0.62×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens & both teams score	37.4%	33.3%	22.7%	1.46×	3.00
Lens & not both score	26.0%	25.2%	23.6%	1.07×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	15.9%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.57
Paris FC & both teams score	12.0%	13.3%	15.8%	0.84×	7.54
Paris FC & not both score	6.2%	8.3%	15.7%	0.53×	12.02
Draw & not both score	2.5%	4.9%	6.4%	0.76×	20.62

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens & over 1.5	57.3%	54.9%	36.2%	1.52×	1.82
Lens & over 2.5	50.0%	45.1%	28.8%	1.57×	2.22
Lens & over 3.5	34.7%	30.8%	16.8%	1.83×	3.25
Lens & under 3.5	28.7%	26.1%	29.5%	0.88×	3.84
Draw & over 1.5	15.9%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Paris FC & over 1.5	15.1%	18.0%	25.3%	0.71×	5.56
Lens & under 2.5	13.4%	12.8%	17.6%	0.73×	7.79
Paris FC & over 2.5	13.2%	12.8%	19.8%	0.65×	7.79
Paris FC & under 3.5	10.7%	12.8%	20.2%	0.63×	7.79
Draw & under 2.5	10.1%	12.8%	16.1%	0.80×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	10.1%	12.8%	16.1%	0.80×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	8.3%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.3%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Paris FC & over 3.5	7.6%	7.9%	11.2%	0.71×	12.63
Lens & under 1.5	6.1%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Paris FC & under 2.5	5.1%	7.9%	11.7%	0.68×	12.63
Paris FC & under 1.5	3.1%	4.8%	6.2%	0.77×	20.82
Draw & under 1.5	2.5%	4.8%	6.4%	0.76×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (1UP)	77.4%	78.8%	59.0%	1.34×	1.27
Paris FC (1UP)	39.9%	34.3%	48.8%	0.70×	2.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (2UP)	63.4%	68.6%	48.2%	1.42×	1.46
Paris FC (2UP)	18.3%	17.3%	33.6%	0.52×	5.77

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to win 2nd half	60.4%	59.2%	42.0%	1.41×	1.69
2nd half drawn	24.4%	24.3%	31.3%	0.78×	4.11
Paris FC to win 2nd half	15.2%	17.9%	26.9%	0.67×	5.59

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.2%	86.7%	82.3%	1.05×	1.15
Paris FC under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.8%	52.5%	49.8%	1.06×	1.90
Paris FC over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.2%	47.5%	50.2%	0.95×	2.11
Paris FC over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.8%	13.3%	17.7%	0.75×	7.50

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.4%	82.4%	62.2%	1.32×	1.21
Lens under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.5%	55.1%	75.5%	0.73×	1.82
Lens over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.5%	44.9%	24.5%	1.83×	2.23
Lens under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.6%	17.6%	37.8%	0.47×	5.67

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (+0.5)	81.7%	82.5%	68.7%	1.20×	1.21
Paris FC (+2.5)	76.7%	78.5%	90.1%	0.87×	1.27
Lens (-0.5)	63.4%	62.9%	46.2%	1.36×	1.59
Paris FC (+1.5)	58.1%	57.0%	75.5%	0.76×	1.75
Lens (-1.5)	41.9%	43.0%	24.5%	1.75×	2.33
Paris FC (+0.5)	36.6%	37.1%	53.8%	0.69×	2.70
Lens (-2.5)	23.3%	21.5%	9.9%	2.17×	4.65
Paris FC (-0.5)	18.3%	17.5%	31.3%	0.56×	5.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC to concede	91.3%	91.8%	78.1%	1.17×	1.09
Paris FC clean sheet	8.7%	8.2%	21.9%	0.37×	12.21

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC to concede in 1st half	55.5%	56.9%	48.2%	1.18×	1.76
Paris FC clean sheet in 1st half	44.5%	43.1%	51.8%	0.83×	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC to concede in 2nd half	80.4%	80.0%	62.2%	1.29×	1.25
Paris FC clean sheet in 2nd half	19.6%	20.0%	37.8%	0.53×	4.99

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC under 6.5 corners	89.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Paris FC under 5.5 corners	82.2%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Paris FC under 4.5 corners	71.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Paris FC over 2.5 corners	61.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Paris FC under 3.5 corners	56.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Paris FC over 3.5 corners	43.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Paris FC under 2.5 corners	38.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Paris FC over 4.5 corners	28.9%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Paris FC over 5.5 corners	17.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Paris FC over 6.5 corners	10.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC under 3.5 goals	96.1%	97.5%	93.6%	1.04×	1.03
Paris FC under 2.5 goals	86.7%	87.8%	84.5%	1.04×	1.14
Paris FC over 0.5 goals	71.6%	71.9%	70.2%	1.02×	1.39
Paris FC under 1.5 goals	64.2%	63.2%	63.2%	1.00×	1.58
Paris FC over 1.5 goals	35.8%	36.8%	36.8%	1.00×	2.72
Paris FC under 0.5 goals	28.4%	28.1%	29.8%	0.94×	3.56
Paris FC over 2.5 goals	13.3%	12.2%	15.5%	0.79×	8.20
Paris FC over 3.5 goals	3.9%	2.5%	6.4%	0.40×	39.83

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC under 1.5 in 1st half	88.5%	89.4%	87.7%	1.02×	1.12
Paris FC under 0.5 in 1st half	56.0%	61.9%	57.9%	1.07×	1.62
Paris FC over 0.5 in 1st half	44.0%	38.1%	42.1%	0.91×	2.62
Paris FC over 1.5 in 1st half	11.5%	10.6%	12.3%	0.87×	9.40

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC scores equally in both	40.8%	43.4%	41.1%	1.06×	2.31
Paris FC scores more in 2nd half	32.6%	33.6%	34.4%	0.98×	2.97
Paris FC scores more in 1st half	26.6%	26.3%	24.7%	1.06×	3.81

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (away no bet)	77.6%	73.6%	67.2%	1.10×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	22.4%	26.4%	32.8%	0.80×	3.79

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC even goals	54.0%	52.6%	55.7%	0.94×	1.90
Paris FC odd goals	46.0%	47.4%	44.3%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	72.9%	76.6%	82.6%	0.93×	1.31
Both halves over 1.5 goals	27.1%	23.4%	17.4%	1.34×	4.28

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	80.4%	78.2%	65.9%	1.19×	1.28
Both halves under 1.5 goals	19.6%	21.8%	34.1%	0.64×	4.58

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	73.1%	72.1%	60.5%	1.19×	1.39
Lens to score 2+ in a row	60.6%	60.0%	38.6%	1.55×	1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row	36.0%	36.6%	22.3%	1.64×	2.74
Lens to score 3+ in a row	31.0%	29.1%	13.8%	2.12×	3.43
Paris FC to score 2+ in a row	23.4%	19.7%	28.0%	0.70×	5.09
Paris FC to score 3+ in a row	5.7%	5.5%	9.2%	0.60×	18.09

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens corners (+3.5)	95.4%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Lens corners (+2.5)	92.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Lens corners (+1.5)	87.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Lens corners (-1.5)	64.7%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Lens corners (-2.5)	55.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Paris FC corners (+3.5)	54.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Lens corners (-3.5)	45.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Paris FC corners (+2.5)	45.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Paris FC corners (+1.5)	35.3%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Paris FC corners (-1.5)	12.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Paris FC corners (-2.5)	7.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Paris FC corners (-3.5)	4.7%	4.3%	—	—	23.41

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	37.5%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	35.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
9-11 corners	27.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	72.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	71.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	64.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	62.5%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	47.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	37.5%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	35.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	28.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	27.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	10.8%	11.5%	5.2%	2.22×	8.72
2-1	9.3%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.50
1-1	7.6%	7.4%	9.9%	0.75×	13.50
2-0	7.4%	7.4%	7.5%	0.98×	13.50
3-1	7.6%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.50
1-0	6.1%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
2-2	5.8%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
3-0	6.0%	7.4%	3.5%	2.09×	13.51
1-2	4.8%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.29
3-2	4.8%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.29
0-0	2.5%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.31
0-1	3.1%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.30
0-2	2.0%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.31
0-3	0.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
1-3	2.0%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
2-3	2.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.31
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.31
3-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.32
4-0	3.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.30
4-1	4.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.29
4-2	2.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.30
4-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.4%	3.87×	58.31
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.80×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (2nd half DNB)	79.9%	80.0%	60.9%	1.31×	1.25
Paris FC (2nd half DNB)	20.1%	20.0%	39.1%	0.51×	4.99

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens leading at HT (DNB)	61.1%	65.5%	54.1%	1.21×	1.53
Paris FC leading at HT (DNB)	38.9%	34.5%	45.9%	0.75×	2.90

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw (1X)	81.7%	80.6%	68.7%	1.17×	1.24
Lens or Paris FC (12)	81.7%	80.6%	77.4%	1.04×	1.24
Paris FC or draw (X2)	36.6%	41.8%	53.8%	0.78×	2.40

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw at HT	75.9%	79.0%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Paris FC or draw at HT	62.2%	61.6%	66.6%	0.92×	1.62
Lens or Paris FC at HT	61.9%	61.6%	61.6%	1.00×	1.62

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw (1UP)	81.7%	88.5%	73.1%	1.21×	1.13
Paris FC or draw (1UP)	39.9%	41.4%	61.5%	0.67×	2.41

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw in 2nd half	84.8%	82.1%	73.1%	1.12×	1.22
Lens or Paris FC in 2nd half	75.6%	75.7%	68.7%	1.10×	1.32
Paris FC or draw in 2nd half	39.6%	40.8%	58.1%	0.70×	2.45

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.2%	50.1%	57.0%	0.88×	2.00
Neither half drawn	46.8%	49.9%	43.0%	1.16×	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (DNB)	77.6%	74.7%	59.6%	1.25×	1.34
Paris FC (DNB)	22.4%	25.3%	40.4%	0.63×	3.96

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to score first	64.4%	64.7%	50.3%	1.29×	1.55
Paris FC to score first	33.1%	27.5%	43.5%	0.63×	3.64
No goal scored	2.5%	4.2%	6.4%	0.67×	23.54

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.3%	58.4%	54.7%	1.07×	1.71
Not both teams to score	34.7%	41.6%	45.3%	0.92×	2.40

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	57.7%	47.6%	44.9%	1.06×	2.10
Not both score & under 2.5	21.0%	27.7%	35.3%	0.79×	3.61
Not both score & over 2.5	13.7%	12.4%	10.2%	1.21×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	7.6%	8.3%	9.9%	0.84×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	74.9%	80.7%	84.5%	0.95×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	25.1%	19.3%	15.5%	1.25×	5.18

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	60.4%	65.6%	69.4%	0.94×	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	39.6%	34.4%	30.6%	1.13×	2.90

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	45.7%	52.8%	57.2%	0.92×	1.90
Both score 2nd half only	29.9%	27.5%	24.2%	1.13×	3.64
Both score 1st half only	14.8%	10.7%	12.4%	0.86×	9.33
Both score in both halves	9.7%	6.9%	6.5%	1.06×	14.58

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	75.6%	81.1%	81.2%	1.00×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	24.4%	18.9%	18.8%	1.01×	5.30

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	67.6%	66.4%	59.7%	1.11×	1.51
A half without a goal	32.4%	33.6%	40.3%	0.83×	2.98

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	42.5%	42.1%	30.9%	1.36×	2.37
2-3 goals	37.9%	35.1%	43.3%	0.81×	2.85
0-1 goals	11.6%	16.9%	22.5%	0.75×	5.92
7+ goals	8.0%	7.6%	3.7%	2.07×	13.11

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC to score exactly 1	35.8%	35.9%	33.5%	1.07×	2.78
Paris FC to score exactly 0	28.4%	27.4%	29.8%	0.92×	3.65
Paris FC to score exactly 2	22.5%	22.3%	21.4%	1.04×	4.49
Paris FC to score 3+	13.3%	12.9%	15.5%	0.83×	7.76

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to score 3+	44.0%	35.3%	22.6%	1.56×	2.83
Lens to score exactly 2	26.0%	26.5%	24.1%	1.10×	3.77
Lens to score exactly 1	21.3%	23.3%	31.8%	0.73×	4.29
Lens to score exactly 0	8.7%	10.3%	21.9%	0.47×	9.70

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.1%	38.4%	38.4%	1.00×	2.60
Lens leading at HT	37.8%	38.4%	33.4%	1.15×	2.60
Paris FC leading at HT	24.1%	21.0%	28.4%	0.74×	4.77

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens -1: 1	41.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Lens -1: 2	36.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Lens -1: X	21.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (0:1)	41.9%	42.6%	24.5%	1.74×	2.35
Paris FC (0:1)	36.6%	37.3%	53.8%	0.69×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	21.5%	24.2%	21.9%	1.11×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (0:2)	58.1%	63.0%	75.5%	0.83×	1.59
Lens (0:2)	23.3%	20.3%	9.9%	2.05×	4.92
Draw (0:2)	18.5%	15.3%	14.8%	1.04×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (0:3)	76.7%	80.4%	90.1%	0.89×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.3%	9.9%	5.9%	1.68×	10.05
Lens (0:3)	11.0%	9.9%	4.1%	2.40×	10.07

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (0:4)	89.0%	92.0%	95.9%	0.96×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	6.6%	4.6%	2.8%	1.64×	21.69
Lens (0:4)	4.4%	1.2%	1.5%	0.83×	81.61

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (1:0)	81.7%	81.3%	68.7%	1.18×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	11.1%	12.7%	14.6%	0.87×	7.88
Paris FC (1:0)	7.2%	6.9%	16.8%	0.41×	14.50

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (2:0)	92.8%	94.0%	83.2%	1.13×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.9%	2.3%	9.9%	0.23×	43.52
Paris FC (2:0)	2.3%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.69

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	58.0%	59.6%	48.2%	1.24×	1.68
1st half highest scoring	22.3%	24.3%	26.0%	0.94×	4.11
Halves equal	19.6%	19.9%	26.0%	0.77×	5.03

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to concede	71.6%	73.2%	70.2%	1.04×	1.37
Lens clean sheet	28.4%	26.8%	29.8%	0.90×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens clean sheet in 1st half	56.0%	61.9%	57.9%	1.07×	1.62
Lens to concede in 1st half	44.0%	38.1%	42.1%	0.91×	2.62

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens clean sheet in 2nd half	50.8%	52.7%	49.8%	1.06×	1.90
Lens to concede in 2nd half	49.2%	47.3%	50.2%	0.94×	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens over 2.5 corners	89.9%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Lens over 3.5 corners	81.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lens over 4.5 corners	70.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Lens over 5.5 corners	58.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Lens under 6.5 corners	52.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Lens over 6.5 corners	47.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Lens under 5.5 corners	41.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Lens under 4.5 corners	29.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Lens under 3.5 corners	18.9%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Lens under 2.5 corners	10.1%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens over 0.5 goals	91.3%	92.2%	78.1%	1.18×	1.08
Lens under 3.5 goals	77.1%	77.7%	91.6%	0.85×	1.29
Lens over 1.5 goals	70.0%	74.2%	46.5%	1.60×	1.35
Lens under 2.5 goals	56.0%	58.6%	77.4%	0.76×	1.71
Lens over 2.5 goals	44.0%	41.4%	22.6%	1.83×	2.41
Lens under 1.5 goals	30.0%	25.8%	53.5%	0.48×	3.88
Lens over 3.5 goals	22.9%	22.3%	8.4%	2.65×	4.49
Lens under 0.5 goals	8.7%	7.8%	21.9%	0.36×	12.87

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens under 1.5 in 1st half	80.6%	83.6%	87.1%	0.96×	1.20
Lens over 0.5 in 1st half	55.5%	56.6%	48.2%	1.18×	1.77
Lens under 0.5 in 1st half	44.5%	43.4%	51.8%	0.84×	2.31
Lens over 1.5 in 1st half	19.4%	16.4%	12.9%	1.28×	6.10

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens scores more in 2nd half	56.9%	57.5%	40.9%	1.41×	1.74
Lens scores equally in both	24.6%	21.3%	36.6%	0.58×	4.70
Lens scores more in 1st half	18.5%	15.7%	22.6%	0.69×	6.37

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.1%	51.3%	41.9%	1.22×	1.95
Paris FC (home no bet)	49.9%	48.7%	58.1%	0.84×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens even goals	50.4%	50.7%	51.8%	0.98×	1.97
Lens odd goals	49.6%	49.3%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	24.9%	24.5%	28.5%	0.86×	4.09
HT 1-0	20.2%	24.4%	21.4%	1.14×	4.10
HT 0-1	14.5%	11.0%	16.8%	0.66×	9.06
HT 1-1	11.7%	11.0%	9.5%	1.16×	9.08
HT 2-0	8.2%	6.9%	6.8%	1.02×	14.47
Any other HT score	6.9%	6.9%	4.6%	1.51×	14.49
HT 2-1	4.7%	2.4%	3.3%	0.73×	41.97
HT 0-2	4.2%	2.4%	5.2%	0.46×	42.00
HT 1-2	3.4%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.06
HT 2-2	1.4%	2.4%	0.7%	3.21×	42.19

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens at HT / Lens at FT	33.6%	32.3%	27.8%	1.16×	3.10
Draw at HT / Lens at FT	23.0%	21.8%	15.1%	1.45×	4.58
Paris FC at HT / Paris FC at FT	11.4%	12.6%	18.9%	0.67×	7.92
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	9.3%	6.0%	12.7%	0.48×	16.57
Paris FC at HT / Lens at FT	6.8%	6.0%	3.7%	1.63×	16.64
Paris FC at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	6.1%	0.99×	16.66
Draw at HT / Paris FC at FT	5.8%	6.0%	10.9%	0.55×	16.66
Lens at HT / Draw at FT	3.2%	3.5%	4.1%	0.84×	28.65
Lens at HT / Paris FC at FT	1.1%	3.5%	1.8%	1.96×	28.72

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to score last	64.3%	62.4%	53.0%	1.18×	1.60
Paris FC to score last	33.2%	32.7%	40.8%	0.80×	3.06
No goal scored	2.5%	4.2%	6.4%	0.67×	23.54

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.5%	95.7%	93.6%	1.02×	1.05
Lens to lead by 1 at any time	77.4%	78.4%	59.0%	1.33×	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	63.3%	61.4%	51.6%	1.19×	1.63
Lens to lead by 2 at any time	50.5%	50.8%	30.0%	1.69×	1.97
Paris FC to lead by 1 at any time	39.9%	34.7%	48.8%	0.71×	2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	31.5%	29.8%	19.8%	1.50×	3.36
Lens to lead by 3 at any time	27.7%	25.5%	11.7%	2.18×	3.92
Paris FC to lead by 2 at any time	13.4%	10.5%	21.7%	0.48×	9.54
Paris FC to lead by 3 at any time	3.8%	1.6%	8.3%	0.20×	61.02

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens most corners	73.8%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Paris FC most corners	18.4%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Corners level	7.8%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	80.7%	83.4%	85.2%	0.98×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.3%	83.4%	74.0%	1.13×	1.20
2-5 goals	71.5%	72.4%	69.1%	1.05×	1.38
1-4 goals	66.4%	68.8%	76.8%	0.90×	1.45
3-6 goals	63.4%	63.3%	51.4%	1.23×	1.58
2-4 goals	57.2%	59.1%	60.7%	0.97×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.5%	53.2%	46.5%	1.14×	1.88
1-3 goals	47.0%	48.5%	59.4%	0.82×	2.06
4-6 goals	42.5%	43.6%	30.9%	1.41×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.2%	43.6%	38.1%	1.14×	2.30
2-3 goals	37.9%	39.2%	43.3%	0.91×	2.55
4-5 goals	33.6%	35.2%	26.0%	1.36×	2.84
1-2 goals	26.1%	30.2%	38.8%	0.78×	3.31
5-6 goals	23.1%	24.5%	13.4%	1.82×	4.08
7+ goals	8.0%	8.9%	3.7%	2.41×	11.26

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens never behind	57.6%	62.6%	51.2%	1.22×	1.60
Paris FC never behind	20.2%	24.4%	41.0%	0.60×	4.10

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	47.7%	1.07×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	52.3%	0.94×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.1%	51.6%	51.6%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.9%	48.4%	48.4%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.5%	51.9%	50.1%	1.04×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.5%	48.1%	49.9%	0.96×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.5%	95.4%	93.6%	1.02×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	88.4%	87.6%	77.5%	1.13×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	83.1%	82.3%	91.4%	0.90×	1.22
Over 2.5 goals	71.4%	72.5%	54.9%	1.32×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	68.8%	66.3%	83.0%	0.80×	1.51
Over 3.5 goals	50.5%	52.5%	34.4%	1.53×	1.91
Under 3.5 goals	49.5%	47.5%	65.6%	0.72×	2.11
Over 4.5 goals	31.2%	33.7%	17.0%	1.98×	2.97
Under 2.5 goals	28.6%	27.5%	45.1%	0.61×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	16.9%	17.7%	8.6%	2.07×	5.65
Under 1.5 goals	11.6%	12.4%	22.5%	0.55×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	2.5%	4.6%	6.4%	0.72×	21.88

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	91.2%	92.4%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	86.0%	86.7%	71.0%	1.22×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	80.3%	81.1%	90.6%	0.89×	1.23
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.9%	61.9%	43.3%	1.43×	1.62
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	61.4%	61.9%	79.4%	0.78×	1.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	38.6%	38.1%	20.6%	1.85×	2.62
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.1%	38.1%	56.7%	0.67×	2.63
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	19.7%	18.9%	9.4%	2.02×	5.28
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	14.0%	13.3%	29.0%	0.46×	7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	8.8%	7.6%	3.9%	1.96×	13.14

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.6%	85.8%	87.4%	0.98×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.1%	78.0%	71.5%	1.09×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	59.6%	63.8%	66.5%	0.96×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	40.4%	36.2%	33.5%	1.08×	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.9%	22.0%	28.5%	0.77×	4.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.4%	14.2%	12.6%	1.13×	7.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	90.1%	89.3%	81.8%	1.09×	1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	67.1%	68.7%	49.8%	1.38×	1.46
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	59.4%	55.0%	75.3%	0.73×	1.82
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	40.6%	45.0%	24.7%	1.83×	2.22
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	32.9%	31.3%	50.2%	0.62×	3.19
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	9.9%	10.7%	18.2%	0.59×	9.37

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC not to score in both halves	78.3%	78.5%	77.8%	1.01×	1.28
Lens not to score in both halves	55.4%	57.9%	67.8%	0.85×	1.73
Lens to score in both halves	44.6%	42.1%	32.2%	1.31×	2.37
Paris FC to score in both halves	21.7%	21.5%	22.2%	0.97×	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	65.3%	59.8%	54.7%	1.09×	1.67
Only Lens scores	26.0%	26.0%	23.6%	1.10×	3.84
Only Paris FC scores	6.2%	7.1%	15.7%	0.45×	14.05
Neither team scores	2.5%	4.6%	6.4%	0.72×	21.74

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	20.9%	22.6%	20.7%	1.09×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	19.3%	17.5%	17.6%	0.99×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	17.0%	17.5%	22.7%	0.77×	5.73
6 or more goals	16.9%	17.5%	8.6%	2.04×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	14.3%	12.1%	8.6%	1.42×	8.24
Exactly 1 goals	9.2%	7.6%	16.2%	0.47×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	2.5%	4.5%	6.4%	0.70×	22.40

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.6%	35.9%	38.1%	0.94×	2.79
No goals in 1st half	24.9%	21.6%	28.5%	0.76×	4.64
2 goals in 1st half	24.1%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	16.4%	15.6%	12.6%	1.24×	6.41

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	67.1%	61.5%	49.8%	1.24×	1.63
1 goal in 2nd half	23.0%	22.8%	32.2%	0.71×	4.39
No goals in 2nd half	9.9%	10.8%	18.2%	0.60×	9.23

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC not to win both halves	96.3%	97.2%	90.7%	1.07×	1.03
Lens not to win both halves	77.1%	75.4%	83.6%	0.90×	1.33
Lens to win both halves	22.9%	24.6%	16.4%	1.50×	4.07
Paris FC to win both halves	3.7%	2.8%	9.3%	0.30×	35.27

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to win either half	75.4%	79.6%	58.9%	1.35×	1.26
Paris FC to win neither half	64.3%	65.2%	54.1%	1.21×	1.54
Paris FC to win either half	35.7%	34.8%	45.9%	0.76×	2.87
Lens to win neither half	24.6%	20.4%	41.1%	0.50×	4.91

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC not to win to nil	93.8%	92.1%	84.3%	1.09×	1.09
Lens not to win to nil	74.0%	75.4%	76.4%	0.99×	1.33
Lens to win to nil	26.0%	24.6%	23.6%	1.04×	4.06
Paris FC to win to nil	6.2%	7.9%	15.7%	0.50×	12.68

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens by 3+	23.3%	24.1%	9.9%	2.44×	4.15
Lens by 1	21.5%	24.1%	21.9%	1.10×	4.15
Lens by 2	18.5%	17.1%	14.8%	1.15×	5.86
Draw	18.3%	17.1%	22.6%	0.75×	5.87
Paris FC by 1	11.1%	11.8%	14.6%	0.80×	8.51
Paris FC by 2	4.9%	2.7%	9.9%	0.28×	36.75
Paris FC by 3+	2.3%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	36.83