Lens v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 13 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 10
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
19 – 8
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-3.13 – +1.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lens win
32.4%
Draw
25.2%
Paris Saint Germain win
42.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDWWLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 19.8 xG
conceded 10
from 12.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.36–1.59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.90 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 65% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lens 3.13 xGParis Saint Germain 0.94 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lens attacking right
Paris Saint Germain attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Paris Saint Germain |
Dro Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 8' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 12' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Lens |
Pierre Ganiou | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 13' |
Paris Saint Germain |
João Neves | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 17' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Ganiou |
| 28' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 31' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Bradley Barcola | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
| 32' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 35' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
| 37' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Odsonne Edouard |
| 38' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 40' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 43' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bradley Barcola |
| 45' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Wesley Said |
| 46' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
| 48' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Dro Fernández | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Senny Mayulu |
| 49' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Désiré Doué | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Dembélé |
| 53' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 53' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ousmane Dembélé | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | João Neves |
| 62' |
Lens |
Matthieu Udol | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Allan Saint-Maximin |
| 71' |
Lens |
Allan Saint-Maximin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 72' |
Lens |
Allan Saint-Maximin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 73' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Florian Thauvin |
| 79' |
Lens |
Mamadou Sangaré | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 84' |
Lens |
Allan Saint-Maximin | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Lens |
Allan Saint-Maximin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Paris Saint Germain |
Ibrahim Mbaye | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Désiré Doué |
| 94' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.17 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Allan Saint-Maximin |
Players
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dro Fernández MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Désiré Doué MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 0.40 |
| Beraldo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Senny Mayulu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Matvey Safonov GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Ousmane Dembélé FW | 78 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.33 | 0.66 |
| João Neves MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia FWL | 74 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 0.58 |
| Lucas Hernández DL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Bradley Barcola FWR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| Vitinha Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Fabián Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonçalo Ramos Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Dimitri Lucea Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.16 | 0.88 |
| Mamadou Sangaré MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.83 |
| Pierre Ganiou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Abdallah Sima AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 1.63 |
| Ruben Aguilar DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 1.18 |
| Odsonne Edouard FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0.33 |
| Wesley Said AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.14 | 0.03 | 1.19 |
| Samson Baidoo DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Florian Thauvin Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.52 |
| Kyllian Antonio Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Allan Saint-Maximin Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.50 |
| Andrija Bulatovic Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |