Lens v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 12
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 8
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.41 – 0.08
Goals − xG
+0.36 – -0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lens win
38.9%
Draw
33.9%
Rennes win
27.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.23–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lens 0.64 xGRennes 0.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lens attacking right
Rennes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Lens |
Ruben Aguilar | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wesley Said |
| 6' |
 Rennes |
Jérémy Jacquet | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Jordan James |
| 20' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
| 26' |
Lens |
Ruben Aguilar | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Sotoca |
| 27' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 32' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Azor Matusiwa |
| 33' |
Rennes |
Adrien Truffert | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Djaoui Cissé |
| 41' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Truffert |
| 44' |
Rennes |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djaoui Cissé |
| 46' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.23 | From Corner | — | Goal | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 46' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Lens |
Nampalys Mendy | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Gradit |
| 53' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.15 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Facundo Medina |
| 57' |
Lens |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Juma Bah |
| 58' |
Lens |
Florian Sotoca | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
| 59' |
Rennes |
Mikayil Faye | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 60' |
Rennes |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Rennes |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Rennes |
Mikayil Faye | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Rennes |
Djaoui Cissé | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jérémy Jacquet |
| 91' |
Rennes |
Kazeem Olaigbe | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Said FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Florian Sotoca FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Ruben Aguilar DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Jonathan Gradit DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Facundo Medina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Deiver Machado DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Neil El Aynaoui MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| Nampalys Mendy MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jeremy Agbonifo FWL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| M'Bala Nzola Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Adrien Thomasson Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Malang Sarr Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andy Diouf Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorenz Assignon DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Mikayil Faye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Adrien Truffert DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Djaoui Cissé MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Mohamed Meïté FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Azor Matusiwa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.42 |
| Anthony Rouault DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jordan James MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Ismaël Koné Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kyogo Furuhashi Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kazeem Olaigbe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |