Lens v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 7
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.41 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-1.22 – -0.40
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lens win
53.2%
Draw
21.9%
Strasbourg win
24.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLWDDWLWWL last 10
scored 23
from 27.4 xG
conceded 16
from 13.9 xG
Strasbourg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWLWLDWWLW last 10
scored 20
from 16.6 xG
conceded 21
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–1.45 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lens 2.22 xGStrasbourg 0.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lens attacking right
Strasbourg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 8' |
 Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 13' |
Strasbourg |
Felix Lemarechal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emanuel Emegha |
| 23' |
Strasbourg |
Mamadou Sarr | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ben Chilwell |
| 33' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wesley Said |
| 40' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.17 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 48' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 48' |
Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 57' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Lens |
Pierre Ganiou | 0.39 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Matthieu Udol |
| 70' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 70' |
Strasbourg |
Guela Doué | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ben Chilwell |
| 72' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mamadou Sangaré |
| 75' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Guilavogui |
| 87' |
Lens |
Morgan Guilavogui | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Sotoca |
| 92' |
Lens |
Abdallah Sima | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Guilavogui |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Ganiou DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Samson Baidoo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.78 | 1.02 |
| Mamadou Sangaré MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1.06 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Ruben Aguilar DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Odsonne Edouard FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.12 | 0.15 | 1.42 |
| Wesley Said AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.92 |
| Morgan Guilavogui Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| Abdallah Sima Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Emegha FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Mamadou Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Guela Doué DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Joaquín Panichelli AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Ben Chilwell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| Diego Moreira DML | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Valentín Barco MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Felix Lemarechal AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Samir El Mourabet MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrew Omobamidele Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Julio Enciso Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mathis Amougou Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rabby Nzingoula Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |