Levante v Athletic Club — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 14
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.40 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-1.20 – -0.81
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Levante win
30.5%
Draw
25.2%
Athletic Club win
44.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Levante are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLWWWLLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 17.8 xG
conceded 16
from 14.6 xG
Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLLWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.7 xG
conceded 18
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.16–1.46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.50–1.59 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 62% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Levante 1.20 xGAthletic Club 2.81 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Levante attacking right
Athletic Club attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Athletic Club |
Aitor Paredes | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 1' |
Athletic Club |
Aitor Paredes | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Yuri |
| 2' |
Athletic Club |
Roberto Navarro | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alex Berenguer |
| 12' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Williams |
| 14' |
 Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gorka Guruzeta |
| 28' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Yuri |
| 29' |
Athletic Club |
Roberto Navarro | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Jauregizar |
| 32' |
Athletic Club |
Mikel Jauregizar | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Athletic Club |
Yuri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Williams |
| 41' |
Levante |
Unai Elgezabal | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 43' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alex Berenguer |
| 46' |
Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 46' |
Levante |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 47' |
Levante |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Levante |
Roger Brugué | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Jeremy Toljan |
| 53' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Etta Eyong |
| 64' |
Levante |
Víctor García | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 70' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.93 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Williams |
| 73' |
Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.23 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Víctor García |
| 74' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Víctor García |
| 75' |
Athletic Club |
Íñigo Lekue | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Athletic Club |
Selton Sánchez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alejandro Rego |
| 92' |
Levante |
Morales | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Athletic Club |
Urko Izeta | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Rego |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorka Guruzeta FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.98 | 0.45 | 2.40 |
| Aitor Paredes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Íñigo Lekue DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Yuri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.46 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dani Vivian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Alex Berenguer AMC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.94 | 1.91 |
| Alejandro Rego DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| Nico Williams AML | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 2.43 |
| Mikel Jauregizar DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Roberto Navarro AMR | 65 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Unai Gómez Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Selton Sánchez Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mikel Vesga Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Urko Izeta Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nicolás Serrano Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etta Eyong FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| Carlos Álvarez MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.73 |
| Oriol Rey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Alan Matturro DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Goduine Koyalipou FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Unai Elgezabal DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kervin Arriaga MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Iván Romero Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Roger Brugué Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge Cabello Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Víctor García Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.29 | 0.08 |
| Morales Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 |