Levante v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 23 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
26 – 6
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
18 – 3
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
1.05 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.44 – +1.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Levante win
35.4%
Draw
26.2%
Elche win
38.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Levante are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLWWWLLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 17.8 xG
conceded 16
from 14.6 xG
Elche are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLDLWDDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 20
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.38–1.44 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.77–1.52 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Levante 3.44 xGElche 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Levante attacking right
Elche attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 3' |
 Elche |
Grady Diangana | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 4' |
Levante |
Iker Losada | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 5' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Iván Romero |
| 6' |
Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 9' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 10' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 12' |
Levante |
Alan Matturro | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 12' |
Levante |
Iker Losada | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.16 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Iker Losada |
| 17' |
Levante |
Pablo Martínez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 24' |
Elche |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | David Affengruber |
| 24' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 27' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 27' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iker Losada |
| 36' |
Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Levante |
Iker Losada | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Levante |
Pablo Martínez | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jeremy Toljan |
| 52' |
Elche |
Leo Petrot | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Martim Neto |
| 54' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Etta Eyong |
| 56' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 63' |
Levante |
Manuel Sánchez | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jeremy Toljan |
| 65' |
Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 65' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Pablo Martínez |
| 74' |
Elche |
Adam El Mokhtari | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 79' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 80' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 91' |
Elche |
Adam El Mokhtari | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Álex Sánchez |
| 94' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 95' |
Levante |
Alan Matturro | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Goal | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
Players
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Romero AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.07 | 1.22 |
| Pablo Martínez DMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 1.00 |
| Alan Matturro DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Ugo Raghouber DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Etta Eyong FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.96 | 0.02 | 1.15 |
| Carlos Álvarez AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0.13 | 0.83 | 0.78 |
| Iker Losada AML | 46 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| Paco Cortés Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Espí Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti Sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Petrot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Adrià Pedrosa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| German Valera DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Iñaki Peña GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez FW | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Grady Diangana MR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Yago Alonso ML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Martim Neto MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| Josan Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Adam El Mokhtari Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| André Silva Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Álex Sánchez Sub | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |