Levante v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 13 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 5
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 3
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.75 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-2.33 – -0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Levante win
39.0%
Draw
31.6%
Getafe win
29.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Levante are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDWDLLDDW last 10
scored 16
from 16.1 xG
conceded 19
from 21.6 xG
Getafe are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWLDDLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 7.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.16–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–1.09 | 1-1 13% | 44% | 49% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Levante 3.33 xGGetafe 0.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Levante attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrián De la Fuente |
| 5' |
Levante |
Kareem Tunde | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Jeremy Toljan |
| 6' |
Levante |
Ugo Raghouber | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Levante |
Pablo Martínez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Espí |
| 24' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 24' |
Levante |
Kareem Tunde | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 30' |
 Getafe |
Adrián Liso | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martín Satriano |
| 31' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Vázquez |
| 38' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Pablo Martínez |
| 44' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrián Liso |
| 45' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kiko Femenía |
| 52' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 52' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrián De la Fuente |
| 54' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matías Moreno |
| 60' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.74 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 64' |
Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matías Moreno |
| 66' |
Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jeremy Toljan |
| 71' |
Levante |
Manuel Sánchez | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Levante |
Kareem Tunde | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Espí |
| 77' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 82' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.39 | Open Play | — | Goal | Manuel Sánchez |
| 89' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 91' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.74 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 92' |
Levante |
Matías Moreno | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Satriano ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| Juan Iglesias DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Zaid Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djené Dakonam MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| Adrián Liso MR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Abdelkabir Abqar DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Vázquez FW | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Mario Martín Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Davinchi Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Veljko Birmancevic Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Abu Kamara Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastián Boselli Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.88 | 0.07 | 1.03 |
| Iván Romero ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matías Moreno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.38 | 1.36 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.39 | 1.01 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| Carlos Espí FW | 89 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.88 | 0.04 | 0.85 |
| Kareem Tunde MR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.68 |
| Ugo Raghouber DMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Pablo Martínez MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| Kervin Arriaga Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Carlos Álvarez Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.56 |
| Víctor García Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Etta Eyong Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alan Matturro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |