Levante v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 22
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 14
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.74
Goals − xG
+0.18 – -0.96
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Levante win
40.5%
Draw
28.9%
Girona win
30.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Levante are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWDLLDD last 10
scored 15
from 16.7 xG
conceded 18
from 20.3 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.35–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.80–1.41 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Levante 0.82 xGGirona 1.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Levante attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Thomas Lemar |
| 4' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 7' |
 Levante |
Kareem Tunde | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Sánchez |
| 13' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jeremy Toljan |
| 17' |
Levante |
Paco Cortés | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Oriol Rey |
| 23' |
Girona |
Fran Beltrán | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Girona |
Claudio Echeverri | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Axel Witsel |
| 28' |
Girona |
Fran Beltrán | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 30' |
Levante |
Matías Moreno | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iván Romero |
| 31' |
Levante |
Oriol Rey | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 36' |
Levante |
Víctor García | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iván Romero |
| 40' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 44' |
Levante |
Víctor García | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Oriol Rey |
| 48' |
Levante |
Paco Cortés | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Sánchez |
| 49' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Goal | Víctor García |
| 57' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alejandro Francés |
| 61' |
Girona |
Alejandro Francés | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Arnau Martinez |
| 67' |
Levante |
Kervin Arriaga | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paco Cortés |
| 70' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 70' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Lemar |
| 74' |
Girona |
Alejandro Francés | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Axel Witsel |
| 74' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Axel Witsel |
| 79' |
Levante |
Alan Matturro | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Víctor García |
| 83' |
Girona |
Abel Ruiz | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alejandro Francés |
| 83' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Abel Ruiz |
| 85' |
Girona |
Daley Blind | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 87' |
Girona |
Vitor Reis | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alejandro Francés |
| 89' |
Girona |
Alejandro Francés | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.63 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 89' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Abel Ruiz |
| 93' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alejandro Francés |
| 97' |
Girona |
Vitor Reis | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Iván Martín |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axel Witsel DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.67 | 0.12 | 0.42 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Viktor Tsygankov AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.12 | 0.62 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Fran Beltrán DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Thomas Lemar AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.36 |
| Arnau Martinez DL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Claudio Echeverri AML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Hugo Rincón DR | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joel Roca Sub | 33 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Alejandro Francés Sub | 33 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.31 | 0.91 |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| Abel Ruiz Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| Iván Martín Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.57 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matías Moreno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Paco Cortés AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Oriol Rey DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.52 |
| Víctor García Sub | 73 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| Carlos Espí FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Iván Romero AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Kervin Arriaga Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Etta Eyong Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kareem Tunde AMR | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alan Matturro Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Unai Vencedor Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |