Levante v Real Oviedo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 10
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.80 – 0.77
Goals − xG
+0.99 – +0.66
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Levante win
47.7%
Draw
28.2%
Real Oviedo win
24.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Levante are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLWWWLLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 17.8 xG
conceded 16
from 14.6 xG
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.74–1.20 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Levante 3.01 xGReal Oviedo 1.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Levante attacking right
Real Oviedo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 8' |
Levante |
Iker Losada | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Víctor García |
| 10' |
 Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kwasi Sibo |
| 18' |
Levante |
Jeremy Toljan | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kareem Tunde |
| 20' |
Levante |
Alan Matturro | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeremy Toljan |
| 20' |
Levante |
Víctor García | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alan Matturro |
| 22' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 22' |
Real Oviedo |
Thiago Fernández | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Viñas |
| 24' |
Levante |
Alan Matturro | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 24' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.54 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 29' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Iker Losada |
| 29' |
Real Oviedo |
Nacho Vidal | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Alberto Reina |
| 34' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Alberto Reina |
| 37' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Levante |
Jeremy Toljan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oriol Rey |
| 43' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Goal | Javier López |
| 47' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 50' |
Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Espí |
| 51' |
Levante |
Iker Losada | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Kareem Tunde |
| 57' |
Real Oviedo |
Federico Viñas | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Real Oviedo |
Javier López | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Levante |
Víctor García | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Paco Cortés |
| 82' |
Real Oviedo |
Santiago Cazorla | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Levante |
Paco Cortés | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iván Romero |
| 92' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 93' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Viñas FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.78 | 0.05 | 0.42 |
| Ilyas Chaira AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Nacho Vidal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Aarón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| David Costas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Eric Bailly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Alberto Reina AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.49 |
| Kwasi Sibo DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Thiago Fernández AML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Javier López DL | 70 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Nicolás Fonseca DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Santiago Cazorla Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Haissem Hassan Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rahim Alhassane Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Colombatto Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álex Forés Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Agudín Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Víctor García MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.08 | 0.65 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.05 | 0.33 |
| Alan Matturro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Oriol Rey DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Carlos Espí FW | 81 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.16 | 0.02 | 0.66 |
| Kareem Tunde ML | 81 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| Iker Losada MC | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Pablo Martínez Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iván Romero Sub | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.04 | 0.60 |
| Paco Cortés Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Kervin Arriaga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ugo Raghouber Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tai Abed Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |