Levante v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 18
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 9
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.96 – 0.65
Goals − xG
-0.23 – -0.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Levante win
32.2%
Draw
24.7%
Real Sociedad win
43.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Levante are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLWWWLLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 17.8 xG
conceded 16
from 14.6 xG
Real Sociedad are conceding fewer than expected — 2.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDLDLLWDW last 10
scored 13
from 12.3 xG
conceded 17
from 19.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–1.49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.61–1.60 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 64% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Levante 1.23 xGReal Sociedad 1.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Levante attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
 Levante |
Matías Moreno | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Sánchez |
| 17' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 17' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Levante |
Víctor García | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jeremy Toljan |
| 22' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 28' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 29' |
Real Sociedad |
Pablo Marín | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 36' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 39' |
Real Sociedad |
Pablo Marín | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 43' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Víctor García |
| 45' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.37 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jeremy Toljan |
| 51' |
Levante |
Pablo Martínez | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 54' |
Levante |
Pablo Martínez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 55' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 64' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Marín |
| 68' |
Levante |
Manuel Sánchez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Unai Vencedor |
| 74' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arsen Zakharyan |
| 75' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Brais Méndez |
| 77' |
Real Sociedad |
Takefusa Kubo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arsen Zakharyan |
| 84' |
Real Sociedad |
Brais Méndez | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jon Gorrotxategi |
| 86' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Takefusa Kubo |
| 87' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
Real Sociedad |
Lander Astiazarán | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Levante |
Manuel Sánchez | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 93' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 95' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Levante |
Kareem Tunde | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Levante |
Kervin Arriaga | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.06 | 0.59 |
| Takefusa Kubo MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.43 | 0.81 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.51 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.21 |
| Igor Zubeldia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Aritz Elustondo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Pablo Marín MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Luka Sucic MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Gonçalo Guedes ML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Brais Méndez Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Arsen Zakharyan Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Carlos Soler Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lander Astiazarán Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arkaitz Mariezkurrena Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Carlos Álvarez AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Víctor García AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Kervin Arriaga DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Iván Romero FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Unai Vencedor DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Matías Moreno DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Pablo Martínez AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Carlos Espí Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kareem Tunde Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alan Matturro Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oriol Rey Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iker Losada Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |