Levante v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 23 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 7
On target
3 – 0
Shots in box
5 – 4
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+0.79 – -0.44
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Levante win
49.8%
Draw
24.8%
Sevilla win
25.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Levante are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWDLLDDWL last 10
scored 16
from 14.5 xG
conceded 19
from 22.6 xG
Sevilla have scored 14 from 12.7 expected and conceded 17 from 16.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWLDWWLDL last 10
scored 14
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 16.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.61–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.72–1.15 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Levante 1.21 xGSevilla 0.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Levante attacking right
Sevilla attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Levante |
Ugo Raghouber | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
 Sevilla |
Oso | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kareem Tunde |
| 37' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 39' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oso |
| 48' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 50' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adrián De la Fuente |
| 51' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Oso |
| 65' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Iván Romero |
| 65' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 77' |
Levante |
Kervin Arriaga | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Levante |
Iván Romero | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kervin Arriaga |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Vargas AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Oso DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Akor Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrés Castrín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Lucien Agoume MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Isaac Romero AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Nemanja Gudelj DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juanlu Sanchez DMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Manu Bueno MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Djibril Sow Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| José Ángel Carmona Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Peque Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexis Sánchez Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Romero ML | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.10 | 0.94 |
| Carlos Espí FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Matías Moreno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pablo Martínez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Ugo Raghouber DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti MC | 70 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Víctor García Sub | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Kareem Tunde MR | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Kervin Arriaga Sub | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.66 | 0.77 |
| Carlos Álvarez Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| Etta Eyong Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |