Levante v Villarreal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 18 February 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 15
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
11 – 10
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.29 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.77 – -1.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Levante win
23.0%
Draw
23.9%
Villarreal win
53.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Levante are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLWWWLLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 17.8 xG
conceded 16
from 14.6 xG
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.13–1.82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.49–1.80 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 65% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Levante 0.77 xGVillarreal 2.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Levante attacking right
Villarreal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Levante |
Diego Pampín | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
 Villarreal |
Sergi Cardona | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Rafa Marín |
| 29' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Mouriño | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 40' |
Villarreal |
Ayoze Pérez | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Mouriño | 0.12 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pape Alassane Gueye |
| 44' |
Villarreal |
Alberto Moleiro | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Mouriño |
| 48' |
Levante |
Paco Cortés | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 48' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Moleiro |
| 49' |
Levante |
Víctor García | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Mouriño |
| 52' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Víctor García |
| 55' |
Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Diego Pampín |
| 56' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nicolas Pepe |
| 56' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pape Alassane Gueye |
| 67' |
Villarreal |
Pape Alassane Gueye | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rafa Marín |
| 72' |
Levante |
Adrián De la Fuente | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Álvarez |
| 80' |
Villarreal |
Alfonso | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Georges Mikautadze |
| 80' |
Villarreal |
Georges Mikautadze | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Villarreal |
Alfonso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Renato Veiga |
| 82' |
Levante |
Jon Ander Olasagasti | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Paco Cortés |
| 85' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pau Navarro |
| 90' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Levante |
Kareem Tunde | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Jon Ander Olasagasti |
| 91' |
Levante |
Carlos Espí | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jeremy Toljan |
| 93' |
Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Unai Vencedor |
| 95' |
Levante |
Diego Pampín | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Levante |
Mat Ryan | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Levante |
Mat Ryan | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Pepe MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.41 | 0.62 |
| Santiago Mouriño DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.53 |
| Sergi Cardona DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Pau Navarro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| Georges Mikautadze FW | 89 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.79 | 0.49 | 1.39 |
| Alberto Moleiro ML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.58 |
| Rafa Marín DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.96 |
| Ayoze Pérez FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Alfonso Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Renato Veiga Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Thomas Partey Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alexander Freeman Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tani Oluwaseyi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Espí FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Diego Pampín DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Paco Cortés FWL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.31 |
| Iker Losada MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Víctor García FWR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Matías Moreno DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ugo Raghouber MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Etta Eyong Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai Vencedor Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Alan Matturro Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Carlos Álvarez Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Kareem Tunde Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |