Libertad (Ecuador) v Independiente del Valle — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ECU-LigaPro · 2627

ECU-LigaPro results-only Prediction generated 8 Sep 2026, 11:44 UTC

Libertad (Ecuador)

23:00 UTC

Independiente del Valle

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 135h before kick-off

Libertad (Ecuador) win

23.1%

model 24.8%

Draw

23.0%

model 23.5%

Independiente del Valle win

53.9%

model 51.7%

232354

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.1%
0-1 10.6%
1-2 9.7%
0-2 8.8%
1-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.1%	Under 2.5	46.9%
BTTS yes	54.2%	BTTS no	45.8%
Libertad (Ecuador) 1+	66.7%	Libertad (Ecuador) 2+	30.1%
Independiente del Valle 1+	81.7%	Independiente del Valle 2+	50.7%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.70. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Independiente del Valle over 1.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 26%

53.6% fair odds 1.87

strong signal · 7084 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both teams to score 2+

GG/NG 2+ · usually 90%

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 6854 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Independiente del Valle carry the stronger rating, 1790 Elo against 1536.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Independiente del Valle have an estimated 53.9% win probability, against 23.1% for Libertad (Ecuador) and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.10 for Libertad (Ecuador) and 1.70 for Independiente del Valle.

Why Libertad (Ecuador)

Nothing in the data singles out Libertad (Ecuador).

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Independiente del Valle can win

Independiente del Valle carry the stronger rating, 1790 Elo against 1536. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Libertad (Ecuador), so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Independiente del Valle, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Libertad (Ecuador): 29% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Independiente del Valle: 46% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Independiente del Valle are the model's most likely outcome at 53.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.1%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	252352	1.10–1.70	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	262351	1.20–1.76	1-1 11%	57%	58%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to win	51.7%	51.6%	29.4%	1.75×	1.94
Libertad (Ecuador) to win	24.8%	23.5%	44.4%	0.53×	4.26
Draw	23.5%	23.5%	26.4%	0.89×	4.26

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle & not both score	27.5%	26.5%	17.9%	1.48×	3.78
Independiente del Valle & both teams score	24.2%	21.5%	11.6%	1.85×	4.65
Draw & both teams score	17.7%	18.2%	18.7%	0.98×	5.49
Libertad (Ecuador) & both teams score	12.4%	12.6%	19.0%	0.66×	7.91
Libertad (Ecuador) & not both score	12.4%	12.6%	25.5%	0.50×	7.91
Draw & not both score	5.8%	7.7%	7.9%	0.96×	13.05

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle & over 1.5	41.1%	42.8%	19.0%	2.25×	2.34
Independiente del Valle & under 3.5	34.1%	31.8%	22.2%	1.43×	3.15
Independiente del Valle & over 2.5	32.3%	31.8%	14.6%	2.18×	3.15
Independiente del Valle & under 2.5	19.4%	17.7%	15.0%	1.18×	5.66
Libertad (Ecuador) & over 1.5	17.9%	17.7%	32.2%	0.55×	5.66
Libertad (Ecuador) & under 3.5	18.2%	17.7%	33.3%	0.53×	5.66
Draw & over 1.5	17.7%	17.7%	18.7%	0.95×	5.66
Draw & under 2.5	16.9%	17.7%	22.2%	0.80×	5.66
Draw & under 3.5	16.9%	17.7%	22.2%	0.80×	5.66
Independiente del Valle & over 3.5	17.6%	17.7%	7.4%	2.39×	5.66
Libertad (Ecuador) & over 2.5	14.2%	12.5%	24.6%	0.51×	8.03
Libertad (Ecuador) & under 2.5	10.6%	12.5%	20.0%	0.62×	8.03
Independiente del Valle & under 1.5	10.6%	12.5%	10.5%	1.18×	8.03
Libertad (Ecuador) & under 1.5	7.0%	7.6%	12.4%	0.61×	13.17
Libertad (Ecuador) & over 3.5	6.6%	7.6%	11.3%	0.67×	13.17
Draw & over 2.5	6.6%	7.6%	4.4%	1.71×	13.17
Draw & over 3.5	6.6%	7.6%	4.4%	1.71×	13.17
Draw & under 1.5	5.8%	7.6%	7.9%	0.96×	13.17

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (1UP)	66.0%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Libertad (Ecuador) (1UP)	42.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (2UP)	51.7%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
Libertad (Ecuador) (2UP)	24.8%	23.0%	—	—	4.34

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to win 2nd half	44.3%	40.9%	—	—	2.44
2nd half drawn	33.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Libertad (Ecuador) to win 2nd half	22.2%	22.3%	—	—	4.48

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (+2.5)	97.2%	96.6%	92.2%	1.05×	1.04
Independiente del Valle (+1.5)	90.7%	92.3%	80.6%	1.15×	1.08
Independiente del Valle (+0.5)	75.2%	78.2%	55.6%	1.41×	1.28
Independiente del Valle (-0.5)	51.7%	52.0%	29.4%	1.77×	1.92
Libertad (Ecuador) (+0.5)	48.3%	48.0%	70.6%	0.68×	2.08
Libertad (Ecuador) (-0.5)	24.8%	21.8%	44.4%	0.49×	4.60
Libertad (Ecuador) (-1.5)	9.3%	7.7%	19.4%	0.40×	12.95
Libertad (Ecuador) (-2.5)	2.8%	3.4%	7.8%	0.44×	29.56

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to concede	66.7%	71.6%	74.3%	0.96×	1.40
Independiente del Valle clean sheet	33.3%	28.4%	25.7%	1.11×	3.52

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle clean sheet in 1st half	62.3%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Independiente del Valle to concede in 1st half	37.7%	38.0%	—	—	2.63

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle over 2.5 corners	83.4%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Independiente del Valle under 6.5 corners	73.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Independiente del Valle over 3.5 corners	69.5%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Independiente del Valle under 5.5 corners	60.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Independiente del Valle over 4.5 corners	53.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Independiente del Valle under 4.5 corners	46.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Independiente del Valle over 5.5 corners	39.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Independiente del Valle under 3.5 corners	30.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Independiente del Valle over 6.5 corners	26.8%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Independiente del Valle under 2.5 corners	16.6%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle under 3.5 goals	90.7%	92.1%	96.9%	0.95×	1.09
Independiente del Valle over 0.5 goals	81.8%	82.4%	66.7%	1.24×	1.21
Independiente del Valle under 2.5 goals	75.7%	76.4%	89.6%	0.85×	1.31
Independiente del Valle over 1.5 goals	50.7%	53.6%	26.2%	2.04×	1.87
Independiente del Valle under 1.5 goals	49.3%	46.4%	73.8%	0.63×	2.16
Independiente del Valle over 2.5 goals	24.3%	23.6%	10.4%	2.28×	4.24
Independiente del Valle under 0.5 goals	18.3%	17.6%	33.3%	0.53×	5.69
Independiente del Valle over 3.5 goals	9.3%	7.9%	3.1%	2.53×	12.60

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle under 1.5 in 1st half	85.1%	86.8%	—	—	1.15
Independiente del Valle under 0.5 in 1st half	50.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Independiente del Valle over 0.5 in 1st half	49.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Independiente del Valle over 1.5 in 1st half	14.9%	13.2%	—	—	7.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) (away no bet)	51.4%	52.1%	62.7%	0.83×	1.92
Draw (away no bet)	48.6%	47.9%	37.3%	1.28×	2.09

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle even goals	51.7%	53.5%	51.6%	1.04×	1.87
Independiente del Valle odd goals	48.3%	46.5%	48.4%	0.96×	2.15

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.3%	82.7%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.7%	17.3%	—	—	5.77

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.2%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.8%	33.6%	—	—	2.98

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.8%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Independiente del Valle to score 2+ in a row	42.5%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.7%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Libertad (Ecuador) to score 2+ in a row	21.6%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Independiente del Valle to score 3+ in a row	16.7%	17.3%	—	—	5.77
Libertad (Ecuador) to score 3+ in a row	5.3%	7.8%	—	—	12.86

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle corners (+3.5)	94.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Independiente del Valle corners (+2.5)	90.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Independiente del Valle corners (+1.5)	84.1%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Libertad (Ecuador) corners (+3.5)	71.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Libertad (Ecuador) corners (+2.5)	60.3%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Independiente del Valle corners (-1.5)	51.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Libertad (Ecuador) corners (+1.5)	48.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Independiente del Valle corners (-2.5)	39.7%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Independiente del Valle corners (-3.5)	28.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Libertad (Ecuador) corners (-1.5)	15.9%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Libertad (Ecuador) corners (-2.5)	9.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Libertad (Ecuador) corners (-3.5)	5.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	54.9%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	17.2%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.5%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	82.8%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	75.3%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	65.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	57.1%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	54.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	45.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	42.9%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	34.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 10.5 corners	24.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 11.5 corners	17.2%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 12.5 corners	11.5%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	10.6%	11.2%	10.5%	1.07×	8.90
1-1	11.1%	11.2%	14.4%	0.78×	8.90
0-0	5.8%	7.4%	7.9%	0.93×	13.49
0-2	8.8%	7.4%	4.6%	1.60×	13.48
1-0	7.0%	7.4%	12.4%	0.60×	13.49
1-2	9.7%	7.4%	5.7%	1.29×	13.48
1-3	5.5%	7.4%	2.4%	3.09×	13.49
2-1	6.3%	7.4%	10.4%	0.72×	13.49
2-2	5.3%	7.4%	3.9%	1.91×	13.49
0-3	5.0%	1.7%	1.8%	0.93×	58.10
0-4	2.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.11
1-4	2.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.10
2-0	3.7%	1.7%	7.8%	0.22×	58.10
2-3	3.0%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.10
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.11
3-0	1.3%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.11
3-1	2.3%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.10
3-2	1.9%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.11
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.11
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	9.31×	58.11
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.11
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.11
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	4.66×	58.11
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.11
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	9.31×	58.11
Any other score	3.5%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.10

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle leading at HT (DNB)	61.6%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Libertad (Ecuador) leading at HT (DNB)	38.4%	37.2%	—	—	2.69

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) or Independiente del Valle (12)	76.5%	76.5%	73.6%	1.04×	1.31
Independiente del Valle or draw (X2)	75.2%	76.5%	55.6%	1.38×	1.31
Libertad (Ecuador) or draw (1X)	48.3%	48.4%	70.6%	0.69×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle or draw at HT	77.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Libertad (Ecuador) or draw at HT	64.6%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Libertad (Ecuador) or Independiente del Valle at HT	57.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle or draw (1UP)	75.2%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Libertad (Ecuador) or draw (1UP)	48.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle or draw in 2nd half	77.8%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Libertad (Ecuador) or Independiente del Valle in 2nd half	66.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Libertad (Ecuador) or draw in 2nd half	55.7%	59.1%	—	—	1.69

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.0%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Neither half drawn	38.0%	39.9%	—	—	2.51

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (DNB)	67.6%	67.0%	39.9%	1.68×	1.49
Libertad (Ecuador) (DNB)	32.4%	33.0%	60.2%	0.55×	3.03

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to score first	57.2%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Libertad (Ecuador) to score first	37.0%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goal scored	5.8%	6.3%	—	—	15.96

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.3%	51.8%	49.0%	1.06×	1.93
Not both teams to score	45.7%	48.2%	51.0%	0.94×	2.08

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.2%	41.6%	34.8%	1.20×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	35.8%	38.0%	42.5%	0.89×	2.63
Both score & under 2.5	11.1%	11.9%	14.4%	0.82×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	9.9%	8.5%	8.7%	0.97×	11.81

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.7%	83.1%	89.8%	0.92×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	15.3%	16.9%	10.2%	1.66×	5.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.3%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.7%	28.7%	—	—	3.49

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.3%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Both score 2nd half only	24.2%	23.3%	—	—	4.28
Both score 1st half only	13.0%	11.9%	—	—	8.39
Both score in both halves	5.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.13

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.5%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	18.5%	17.4%	—	—	5.76

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	44.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.8%	46.6%	47.0%	0.99×	2.15
4-6 goals	28.4%	27.3%	21.3%	1.29×	3.66
0-1 goals	23.4%	23.3%	30.5%	0.76×	4.29
7+ goals	2.4%	2.0%	1.7%	1.20×	50.24

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to score exactly 1	31.0%	32.4%	40.7%	0.80×	3.08
Independiente del Valle to score exactly 2	26.4%	27.4%	16.1%	1.70×	3.66
Independiente del Valle to score 3+	24.3%	23.1%	10.4%	2.23×	4.32
Independiente del Valle to score exactly 0	18.3%	18.4%	33.3%	0.55×	5.43

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) to score exactly 1	36.6%	36.5%	35.3%	1.04×	2.74
Libertad (Ecuador) to score exactly 0	33.3%	32.1%	25.7%	1.25×	3.12
Libertad (Ecuador) to score exactly 2	20.1%	22.9%	24.4%	0.94×	4.37
Libertad (Ecuador) to score 3+	9.9%	8.9%	15.0%	0.59×	11.26

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Independiente del Valle leading at HT	35.4%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Libertad (Ecuador) leading at HT	22.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle -1: 1	48.3%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Independiente del Valle -1: 2	27.9%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Independiente del Valle -1: X	23.8%	23.2%	—	—	4.30

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (0:1)	75.2%	76.7%	55.6%	1.38×	1.30
Draw (0:1)	15.5%	18.2%	25.1%	0.72×	5.51
Libertad (Ecuador) (0:1)	9.3%	8.7%	19.4%	0.45×	11.45

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (0:2)	90.7%	91.4%	80.6%	1.13×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.6%	7.7%	11.8%	0.65×	12.95
Libertad (Ecuador) (0:2)	2.8%	3.5%	7.8%	0.45×	28.82

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (0:3)	97.2%	96.7%	92.2%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.1%	2.6%	4.6%	0.56×	38.98
Libertad (Ecuador) (0:3)	0.7%	2.6%	3.3%	0.77×	39.00

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (0:4)	99.3%	97.7%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Libertad (Ecuador) (0:4)	0.1%	1.4%	1.3%	1.09×	70.62
Draw (0:4)	0.5%	1.4%	2.2%	0.64×	70.60

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) (1:0)	48.3%	49.6%	70.6%	0.70×	2.02
Independiente del Valle (1:0)	27.9%	25.3%	11.5%	2.20×	3.96
Draw (1:0)	23.8%	21.9%	18.1%	1.21×	4.56

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) (2:0)	72.1%	74.7%	88.5%	0.84×	1.34
Draw (2:0)	15.7%	15.4%	7.4%	2.08×	6.51
Independiente del Valle (2:0)	12.2%	11.5%	4.3%	2.71×	8.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.1%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	26.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Halves equal	24.0%	23.3%	—	—	4.30

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) to concede	81.8%	82.6%	66.7%	1.24×	1.21
Libertad (Ecuador) clean sheet	18.3%	17.4%	33.3%	0.52×	5.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) clean sheet in 1st half	50.6%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Libertad (Ecuador) to concede in 1st half	49.4%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) under 6.5 corners	92.7%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Libertad (Ecuador) under 5.5 corners	85.9%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Libertad (Ecuador) under 4.5 corners	74.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Libertad (Ecuador) over 2.5 corners	61.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Libertad (Ecuador) under 3.5 corners	58.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Libertad (Ecuador) over 3.5 corners	41.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Libertad (Ecuador) under 2.5 corners	38.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Libertad (Ecuador) over 4.5 corners	25.2%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Libertad (Ecuador) over 5.5 corners	14.1%	13.7%	—	—	7.28
Libertad (Ecuador) over 6.5 corners	7.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) under 3.5 goals	97.4%	96.6%	94.5%	1.02×	1.04
Libertad (Ecuador) under 2.5 goals	90.1%	92.3%	85.0%	1.09×	1.08
Libertad (Ecuador) under 1.5 goals	69.9%	68.4%	60.8%	1.13×	1.46
Libertad (Ecuador) over 0.5 goals	66.7%	68.4%	74.3%	0.92×	1.46
Libertad (Ecuador) under 0.5 goals	33.3%	31.6%	25.7%	1.23×	3.17
Libertad (Ecuador) over 1.5 goals	30.1%	31.6%	39.2%	0.81×	3.17
Libertad (Ecuador) over 2.5 goals	9.9%	7.7%	15.0%	0.51×	13.03
Libertad (Ecuador) over 3.5 goals	2.6%	3.4%	5.5%	0.62×	29.08

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) under 1.5 in 1st half	91.8%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Libertad (Ecuador) under 0.5 in 1st half	62.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Libertad (Ecuador) over 0.5 in 1st half	37.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Libertad (Ecuador) over 1.5 in 1st half	8.2%	6.2%	—	—	16.19

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle (home no bet)	68.8%	64.7%	52.6%	1.23×	1.55
Draw (home no bet)	31.2%	35.3%	47.4%	0.75×	2.83

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) even goals	55.5%	55.5%	54.2%	1.02×	1.80
Libertad (Ecuador) odd goals	44.5%	44.5%	45.8%	0.97×	2.25

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
HT 0-1	21.5%	22.2%	—	—	4.51
HT 1-0	15.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 1-1	10.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 0-2	7.3%	8.0%	—	—	12.46
Any other HT score	4.4%	2.5%	—	—	40.35
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.5%	—	—	40.39
HT 2-0	3.5%	2.5%	—	—	40.39
HT 2-1	2.4%	2.5%	—	—	40.44
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.5%	—	—	40.51

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle at HT / Independiente del Valle at FT	29.5%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
Draw at HT / Independiente del Valle at FT	19.0%	17.2%	—	—	5.81
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.9%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Libertad (Ecuador) at HT / Libertad (Ecuador) at FT	13.7%	12.2%	—	—	8.20
Draw at HT / Libertad (Ecuador) at FT	9.6%	6.4%	—	—	15.51
Libertad (Ecuador) at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.4%	—	—	15.60
Independiente del Valle at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.7%	—	—	27.27
Libertad (Ecuador) at HT / Independiente del Valle at FT	3.3%	3.7%	—	—	27.30
Independiente del Valle at HT / Libertad (Ecuador) at FT	1.5%	3.7%	—	—	27.35

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to score last	57.2%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Libertad (Ecuador) to score last	37.0%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
No goal scored	5.8%	6.3%	—	—	15.96

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.2%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Independiente del Valle to lead by 1 at any time	66.0%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Libertad (Ecuador) to lead by 1 at any time	42.7%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Independiente del Valle to lead by 2 at any time	34.5%	31.7%	—	—	3.15
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.6%	17.3%	—	—	5.78
Independiente del Valle to lead by 3 at any time	14.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
Libertad (Ecuador) to lead by 2 at any time	14.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
Libertad (Ecuador) to lead by 3 at any time	4.0%	2.5%	—	—	40.18

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle most corners	64.2%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Libertad (Ecuador) most corners	24.8%	26.0%	—	—	3.85
Corners level	11.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.63

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.2%	88.9%	0.98×	1.15
1-4 goals	79.0%	77.9%	81.7%	0.95×	1.28
2-6 goals	74.2%	72.1%	68.0%	1.06×	1.39
2-5 goals	70.1%	72.1%	66.4%	1.09×	1.39
1-3 goals	63.4%	62.7%	69.5%	0.90×	1.60
2-4 goals	61.4%	62.7%	59.2%	1.06×	1.60
3-6 goals	50.6%	52.9%	41.8%	1.27×	1.89
2-3 goals	45.8%	47.4%	47.0%	1.01×	2.11
3-5 goals	46.6%	47.4%	40.1%	1.18×	2.11
1-2 goals	41.1%	43.7%	49.0%	0.89×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.8%	39.0%	32.9%	1.19×	2.56
4-6 goals	28.4%	28.5%	21.3%	1.34×	3.50
4-5 goals	24.3%	23.8%	19.6%	1.21×	4.20
5-6 goals	12.8%	13.5%	9.1%	1.49×	7.40
7+ goals	2.4%	2.2%	1.7%	1.35×	44.58

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle never behind	51.5%	59.4%	—	—	1.69
Libertad (Ecuador) never behind	28.2%	31.0%	—	—	3.22

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.4%	50.0%	51.6%	0.97×	2.00
Even number of goals	49.6%	50.0%	48.4%	1.03×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.9%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.1%	48.4%	—	—	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	92.1%	1.00×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.5%	92.3%	96.7%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.8%	81.7%	89.5%	0.91×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	76.6%	77.0%	69.5%	1.11×	1.30
Under 3.5 goals	69.2%	67.5%	77.3%	0.87×	1.48
Over 2.5 goals	53.1%	52.2%	43.3%	1.21×	1.92
Under 2.5 goals	46.9%	47.8%	56.7%	0.84×	2.09
Over 3.5 goals	30.8%	32.5%	22.7%	1.43×	3.08
Under 1.5 goals	23.4%	23.0%	30.5%	0.75×	4.35
Over 4.5 goals	15.2%	18.3%	10.5%	1.74×	5.47
Over 5.5 goals	6.5%	7.7%	3.3%	2.32×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	7.9%	0.97×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.5%	97.3%	98.3%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.9%	92.0%	96.4%	0.95×	1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.0%	81.3%	88.0%	0.92×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.4%	67.4%	58.6%	1.15×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.4%	62.0%	71.4%	0.87×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.6%	38.0%	28.6%	1.33×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.6%	32.6%	41.4%	0.79×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.0%	18.7%	12.0%	1.56×	5.35
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.1%	8.0%	3.6%	2.22×	12.56
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.5%	2.7%	1.7%	1.61×	36.69

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.9%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Under 1.5 in 1st half	68.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.1%	11.6%	—	—	8.61

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.8%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.9%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.1%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.96
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.2%	17.4%	—	—	5.75

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) not to score in both halves	82.5%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Independiente del Valle not to score in both halves	68.4%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Independiente del Valle to score in both halves	31.6%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Libertad (Ecuador) to score in both halves	17.5%	18.7%	—	—	5.34

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.3%	54.5%	49.0%	1.11×	1.84
Only Independiente del Valle scores	27.5%	25.5%	17.9%	1.42×	3.93
Only Libertad (Ecuador) scores	12.4%	11.1%	25.5%	0.43×	9.04
Neither team scores	5.8%	7.2%	7.9%	0.90×	13.97

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.6%	22.3%	26.4%	0.84×	4.48
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.3%	20.7%	1.08×	4.48
Exactly 1 goals	17.6%	17.6%	22.7%	0.77×	5.69
Exactly 4 goals	15.6%	17.6%	12.4%	1.42×	5.69
Exactly 5 goals	8.7%	7.8%	7.4%	1.05×	12.88
6 or more goals	6.5%	7.8%	3.3%	2.33×	12.89
Exactly 0 goals	5.8%	7.8%	7.9%	0.98×	12.89

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.9%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
1 goal in 2nd half	31.9%	34.3%	—	—	2.91
No goals in 2nd half	19.2%	16.6%	—	—	6.02

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) not to win both halves	95.1%	97.4%	—	—	1.03
Independiente del Valle not to win both halves	84.4%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Independiente del Valle to win both halves	15.6%	17.4%	—	—	5.74
Libertad (Ecuador) to win both halves	4.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.22

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle to win either half	64.1%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
Libertad (Ecuador) to win neither half	60.6%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Libertad (Ecuador) to win either half	39.4%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Independiente del Valle to win neither half	35.9%	35.8%	—	—	2.79

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Libertad (Ecuador) not to win to nil	87.6%	88.1%	74.5%	1.18×	1.14
Independiente del Valle not to win to nil	72.5%	74.8%	82.1%	0.91×	1.34
Independiente del Valle to win to nil	27.5%	25.2%	17.9%	1.41×	3.96
Libertad (Ecuador) to win to nil	12.4%	11.9%	25.5%	0.47×	8.39

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente del Valle by 1	23.8%	23.3%	18.1%	1.29×	4.29
Draw	23.5%	23.3%	26.4%	0.88×	4.29
Libertad (Ecuador) by 1	15.5%	17.3%	25.1%	0.69×	5.78
Independiente del Valle by 2	15.7%	17.3%	7.4%	2.34×	5.78
Independiente del Valle by 3+	12.2%	11.8%	4.3%	2.78×	8.46
Libertad (Ecuador) by 2	6.6%	7.3%	11.8%	0.62×	13.66
Libertad (Ecuador) by 3+	2.8%	3.0%	7.8%	0.38×	33.82