Lille v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Lille

09:00

Brest

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 965h before kick-off

Lille win

54.6%

model 50.7%

Draw

22.7%

model 24.6%

Brest win

22.7%

model 24.7%

552323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.7%
1-0 11.0%
2-1 9.6%
2-0 9.0%
0-1 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.6%	Under 2.5	49.4%
BTTS yes	52.7%	BTTS no	47.3%
Lille 1+	80.5%	Lille 2+	48.6%
Brest 1+	65.5%	Brest 2+	28.7%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Odd number of goals

Odd/Even · usually 47%

50.3% fair odds 1.99

moderate signal · 2377 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lille or draw (1UP)

Double chance 1UP · usually 73%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 498 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Lille carry the stronger rating, 1695 Elo against 1503.
Lille have created 1.50 xG a match over their last five while Brest have allowed 1.79.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
At home Lille average 1.71 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Lille have an estimated 54.6% win probability, against 22.7% for Brest and 22.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.63 for Lille and 1.06 for Brest.

Why Lille

Lille carry the stronger rating, 1695 Elo against 1503. Lille have created 1.50 xG a match over their last five while Brest have allowed 1.79. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Lille average 1.71 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.7%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Brest can win

Brest have created 1.80 xG a match over their last five while Lille have allowed 1.10. Away from home Brest average 1.42 xG a match.

Key players

Lille's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Matias Fernandez-Pardo (0.50), Hákon Haraldsson (0.35), Olivier Giroud (0.29). Brest's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ludovic Ajorque (0.46), Kamory Doumbia (0.43), Romain Del Castillo (0.34).

Availability

1 of Lille's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Brest's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lille: 47% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Brest: 50% possession, 22.0 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 1.35 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Lille are the model's most likely outcome at 54.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDWDWLWDW last 10 scored 15 from 15.0 xG conceded 5 from 11.0 xG

Brest are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LDDLLLDDDW last 10 scored 15 from 18.0 xG conceded 21 from 17.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	512525	1.63–1.06	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	522325	1.88–1.24	1-1 10%	60%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to win	53.5%	51.4%	45.6%	1.13×	1.94
Draw	23.2%	24.5%	22.8%	1.07×	4.09
Brest to win	23.3%	24.5%	31.8%	0.77×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille & not both score	27.6%	25.2%	23.7%	1.06×	3.97
Lille & both teams score	26.0%	25.2%	22.0%	1.14×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	17.7%	17.9%	16.4%	1.09×	5.58
Brest & both teams score	12.2%	13.3%	15.9%	0.83×	7.54
Brest & not both score	11.1%	13.3%	16.1%	0.82×	7.55
Draw & not both score	5.5%	8.4%	6.6%	1.28×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille & over 1.5	43.7%	40.3%	35.7%	1.13×	2.48
Lille & over 2.5	34.8%	30.9%	28.2%	1.09×	3.24
Lille & under 3.5	33.8%	30.9%	28.9%	1.07×	3.24
Lille & over 3.5	19.7%	18.0%	16.8%	1.07×	5.56
Lille & under 2.5	18.7%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.7%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Brest & over 1.5	17.3%	18.0%	25.6%	0.70×	5.56
Brest & under 3.5	16.7%	18.0%	20.7%	0.87×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.4%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.4%	18.0%	16.5%	1.09×	5.56
Brest & over 2.5	13.9%	12.9%	20.0%	0.64×	7.77
Lille & under 1.5	9.8%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.69
Brest & under 2.5	9.4%	7.9%	12.0%	0.66×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	6.8%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.70
Brest & under 1.5	6.1%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.70
Brest & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	11.2%	0.70×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	6.6%	1.20×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (1UP)	67.9%	70.0%	58.0%	1.21×	1.43
Brest (1UP)	41.8%	39.3%	49.6%	0.79×	2.54

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (2UP)	53.5%	55.7%	47.1%	1.18×	1.80
Brest (2UP)	23.3%	23.7%	34.2%	0.69×	4.21

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to win 2nd half	48.9%	45.6%	42.1%	1.08×	2.19
2nd half drawn	32.4%	34.5%	31.2%	1.11×	2.90
Brest to win 2nd half	18.7%	19.1%	26.8%	0.71×	5.24

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest (+2.5)	86.4%	88.5%	90.0%	0.98×	1.13
Lille (+0.5)	76.7%	78.4%	68.2%	1.15×	1.28
Brest (+1.5)	70.0%	68.7%	75.0%	0.92×	1.46
Lille (-0.5)	53.5%	52.3%	45.6%	1.15×	1.91
Brest (+0.5)	46.5%	47.7%	54.4%	0.88×	2.10
Lille (-1.5)	30.0%	31.3%	25.0%	1.25×	3.20
Brest (-0.5)	23.3%	21.6%	31.8%	0.68×	4.64
Lille (-2.5)	13.6%	11.5%	10.0%	1.15×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest to concede	83.4%	81.3%	77.5%	1.05×	1.23
Brest clean sheet	16.6%	18.7%	22.5%	0.83×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest to concede in 1st half	49.6%	50.8%	47.7%	1.06×	1.97
Brest clean sheet in 1st half	50.4%	49.2%	52.3%	0.94×	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest under 6.5 corners	90.1%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Brest under 5.5 corners	83.0%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Brest under 4.5 corners	72.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Brest over 2.5 corners	60.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Brest under 3.5 corners	57.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Brest over 3.5 corners	42.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Brest under 2.5 corners	39.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Brest over 4.5 corners	27.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Brest over 5.5 corners	17.0%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
Brest over 6.5 corners	9.9%	10.0%	—	—	10.03

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest under 3.5 goals	97.4%	97.5%	93.4%	1.04×	1.03
Brest under 2.5 goals	89.9%	87.9%	84.6%	1.04×	1.14
Brest under 1.5 goals	69.6%	68.0%	63.2%	1.08×	1.47
Brest over 0.5 goals	67.0%	68.0%	69.9%	0.97×	1.47
Brest under 0.5 goals	33.0%	32.0%	30.1%	1.06×	3.12
Brest over 1.5 goals	30.4%	32.0%	36.8%	0.87×	3.12
Brest over 2.5 goals	10.1%	12.1%	15.4%	0.78×	8.27
Brest over 3.5 goals	2.6%	2.5%	6.6%	0.37×	40.74

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest under 1.5 in 1st half	89.7%	89.2%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Brest under 0.5 in 1st half	58.1%	62.4%	57.3%	1.09×	1.60
Brest over 0.5 in 1st half	41.9%	37.6%	42.7%	0.88×	2.66
Brest over 1.5 in 1st half	10.3%	10.8%	12.8%	0.85×	9.23

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (away no bet)	69.8%	66.4%	66.7%	1.00×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	30.2%	33.6%	33.3%	1.01×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest even goals	55.5%	56.9%	56.3%	1.01×	1.76
Brest odd goals	44.5%	43.1%	43.7%	0.99×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.7%	82.9%	83.0%	1.00×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.3%	17.1%	17.0%	1.00×	5.86

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.3%	68.6%	65.5%	1.05×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.7%	31.4%	34.5%	0.91×	3.19

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.9%	55.3%	60.2%	0.92×	1.81
Lille to score 2+ in a row	45.2%	45.7%	38.1%	1.20×	2.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.5%	19.6%	22.6%	0.86×	5.12
Brest to score 2+ in a row	21.5%	19.5%	28.1%	0.69×	5.13
Lille to score 3+ in a row	18.6%	16.4%	14.0%	1.17×	6.11
Brest to score 3+ in a row	5.2%	5.6%	9.2%	0.61×	17.87

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille corners (+3.5)	95.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Lille corners (+2.5)	91.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Lille corners (+1.5)	86.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Lille corners (-1.5)	62.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Brest corners (+3.5)	57.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Lille corners (-2.5)	52.5%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Brest corners (+2.5)	47.5%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Lille corners (-3.5)	42.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Brest corners (+1.5)	37.5%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Brest corners (-1.5)	13.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Brest corners (-2.5)	8.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Brest corners (-3.5)	5.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	41.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
12+ corners	31.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	68.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	68.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	60.2%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	58.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	51.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	49.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	41.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	39.8%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 7.5 corners	31.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	31.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	24.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.9%	11.5%	10.1%	1.13×	8.73
1-0	9.8%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.48
2-0	8.8%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.48
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.48
0-0	5.5%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
0-1	6.1%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.48
1-2	6.0%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	4.8%	1.53×	13.48
3-0	5.3%	7.4%	3.7%	1.98×	13.48
3-1	5.9%	7.4%	6.2%	1.19×	13.48
0-2	3.4%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.47
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.48
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.49
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.48
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.49
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.48
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.47
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.48
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
4-0	2.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.48
4-1	2.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.47
4-2	1.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.48
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49
Any other score	4.1%	1.7%	5.1%	0.33×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille leading at HT (DNB)	57.6%	57.8%	53.2%	1.09×	1.73
Brest leading at HT (DNB)	42.4%	42.2%	46.8%	0.90×	2.37

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille or draw (1X)	76.7%	75.5%	68.2%	1.11×	1.32
Lille or Brest (12)	76.8%	75.5%	77.2%	0.98×	1.32
Brest or draw (X2)	46.5%	48.6%	54.4%	0.89×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille or draw at HT	75.1%	79.8%	71.1%	1.12×	1.25
Brest or draw at HT	66.1%	66.4%	67.2%	0.99×	1.51
Lille or Brest at HT	58.7%	56.9%	61.5%	0.93×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille or draw (1UP)	76.7%	83.9%	72.5%	1.16×	1.19
Brest or draw (1UP)	46.5%	52.6%	62.2%	0.85×	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille or draw in 2nd half	81.3%	80.9%	73.2%	1.11×	1.24
Lille or Brest in 2nd half	67.6%	65.5%	68.8%	0.95×	1.53
Brest or draw in 2nd half	51.1%	54.4%	57.9%	0.94×	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.3%	61.5%	56.8%	1.08×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.7%	38.5%	43.2%	0.89×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (DNB)	69.7%	67.2%	58.9%	1.14×	1.49
Brest (DNB)	30.3%	32.8%	41.1%	0.80×	3.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to score first	58.5%	62.0%	49.3%	1.26×	1.61
Brest to score first	36.0%	32.8%	44.3%	0.74×	3.05
No goal scored	5.5%	7.4%	6.6%	1.14×	13.42

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.9%	54.9%	54.0%	1.02×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.1%	45.1%	46.0%	0.98×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	45.0%	41.6%	44.0%	0.95×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	33.6%	34.3%	35.7%	0.96×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	10.9%	12.3%	10.1%	1.22×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	10.5%	12.3%	10.5%	1.18×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.7%	83.1%	84.7%	0.98×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	16.3%	16.9%	15.3%	1.11×	5.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.0%	74.0%	69.9%	1.06×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.0%	26.0%	30.1%	0.86×	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.3%	59.3%	57.4%	1.03×	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	23.0%	20.8%	23.7%	0.88×	4.80
Both score 1st half only	14.7%	10.8%	12.6%	0.85×	9.27
Both score in both halves	6.0%	6.8%	6.6%	1.03×	14.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.2%	81.6%	81.0%	1.01×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.8%	18.4%	19.0%	0.97×	5.43

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.5%	57.3%	59.4%	0.96×	1.75
A half without a goal	42.5%	42.7%	40.6%	1.05×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.5%	47.4%	43.4%	1.09×	2.11
4-6 goals	30.3%	30.7%	30.7%	1.00×	3.26
0-1 goals	21.4%	22.8%	22.6%	1.01×	4.39
7+ goals	2.9%	1.8%	3.6%	0.51×	54.51

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest to score exactly 1	36.6%	36.0%	33.2%	1.08×	2.78
Brest to score exactly 0	33.0%	33.8%	30.1%	1.12×	2.96
Brest to score exactly 2	20.3%	22.4%	21.5%	1.04×	4.47
Brest to score 3+	10.1%	12.8%	15.4%	0.83×	7.82

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to score exactly 1	29.8%	26.5%	31.8%	0.83×	3.77
Lille to score exactly 2	26.8%	26.5%	23.1%	1.15×	3.77
Lille to score 3+	26.9%	26.5%	22.9%	1.16×	3.77
Lille to score exactly 0	16.6%	18.9%	22.5%	0.84×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.3%	43.1%	38.5%	1.12×	2.32
Lille leading at HT	33.9%	33.6%	32.8%	1.03×	2.97
Brest leading at HT	24.9%	20.2%	28.9%	0.70×	4.94

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille -1: 2	46.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Lille -1: 1	30.0%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Lille -1: X	23.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest (0:1)	46.5%	45.9%	54.4%	0.84×	2.18
Lille (0:1)	30.0%	30.0%	25.0%	1.20×	3.34
Draw (0:1)	23.5%	24.3%	20.7%	1.17×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest (0:2)	70.0%	72.3%	75.0%	0.96×	1.38
Draw (0:2)	16.4%	15.3%	15.1%	1.01×	6.55
Lille (0:2)	13.6%	11.0%	10.0%	1.10×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest (0:3)	86.4%	90.8%	90.0%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.5%	5.8%	6.1%	0.96×	17.14
Lille (0:3)	5.1%	5.8%	4.1%	1.43×	17.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest (0:4)	94.9%	94.7%	95.9%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.5%	1.2%	2.7%	0.45×	83.27
Lille (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	1.6%	0.77×	83.49

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (1:0)	76.7%	78.4%	68.2%	1.15×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	14.5%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.80
Brest (1:0)	8.8%	6.9%	16.8%	0.41×	14.42

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (2:0)	91.2%	93.9%	83.2%	1.13×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	6.2%	6.5%	9.8%	0.66×	15.50
Brest (2:0)	2.6%	2.3%	7.2%	0.32×	44.20

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.9%	48.2%	47.3%	1.02×	2.08
1st half highest scoring	28.0%	26.5%	26.8%	0.99×	3.77
Halves equal	24.1%	24.1%	26.1%	0.93×	4.14

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to concede	67.0%	66.6%	69.9%	0.95×	1.50
Lille clean sheet	33.0%	33.5%	30.1%	1.11×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille clean sheet in 1st half	58.1%	62.4%	57.3%	1.09×	1.60
Lille to concede in 1st half	41.9%	37.6%	42.7%	0.88×	2.66

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille over 2.5 corners	88.0%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Lille over 3.5 corners	78.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Lille over 4.5 corners	66.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Lille under 6.5 corners	56.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Lille over 5.5 corners	54.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Lille under 5.5 corners	45.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Lille over 6.5 corners	43.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Lille under 4.5 corners	33.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Lille under 3.5 corners	21.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Lille under 2.5 corners	12.0%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 3.5 goals	89.2%	87.3%	91.7%	0.95×	1.15
Lille over 0.5 goals	83.4%	82.1%	77.5%	1.06×	1.22
Lille under 2.5 goals	73.1%	74.2%	77.1%	0.96×	1.35
Lille over 1.5 goals	53.6%	53.3%	45.9%	1.16×	1.88
Lille under 1.5 goals	46.4%	46.7%	54.1%	0.86×	2.14
Lille over 2.5 goals	26.9%	25.8%	22.9%	1.13×	3.87
Lille under 0.5 goals	16.6%	17.9%	22.5%	0.80×	5.59
Lille over 3.5 goals	10.8%	12.7%	8.3%	1.54×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 1.5 in 1st half	84.9%	84.4%	87.4%	0.97×	1.19
Lille over 0.5 in 1st half	49.6%	50.9%	47.7%	1.07×	1.96
Lille under 0.5 in 1st half	50.4%	49.1%	52.3%	0.94×	2.04
Lille over 1.5 in 1st half	15.1%	15.6%	12.6%	1.23×	6.42

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest (home no bet)	50.2%	51.6%	58.3%	0.89×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	49.8%	48.4%	41.7%	1.16×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille even goals	51.4%	50.6%	51.3%	0.99×	1.98
Lille odd goals	48.6%	49.4%	48.7%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.3%	28.9%	28.5%	1.01×	3.46
HT 1-0	20.1%	24.1%	21.1%	1.14×	4.16
HT 0-1	15.9%	18.7%	16.8%	1.11×	5.35
HT 1-1	10.9%	10.9%	9.5%	1.15×	9.17
HT 2-0	6.9%	7.1%	6.6%	1.09×	14.05
Any other HT score	5.0%	2.3%	4.7%	0.49×	43.25
HT 0-2	4.3%	2.3%	5.5%	0.42×	43.29
HT 2-1	3.7%	2.3%	3.3%	0.70×	43.34
HT 1-2	3.0%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.39
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.3%	0.8%	2.94×	43.54

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille at HT / Lille at FT	29.0%	26.9%	27.5%	0.98×	3.72
Draw at HT / Lille at FT	20.2%	21.7%	14.8%	1.47×	4.60
Brest at HT / Brest at FT	14.5%	12.7%	19.3%	0.66×	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.4%	12.7%	12.9%	0.98×	7.89
Draw at HT / Brest at FT	7.7%	6.0%	11.1%	0.54×	16.66
Brest at HT / Draw at FT	6.1%	6.0%	6.2%	0.96×	16.71
Brest at HT / Lille at FT	4.3%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.79
Lille at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	3.9%	0.89×	28.82
Lille at HT / Brest at FT	1.1%	3.5%	1.7%	2.02×	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to score last	58.5%	56.6%	53.2%	1.06×	1.77
Brest to score last	36.0%	38.5%	40.4%	0.95×	2.60
No goal scored	5.5%	7.4%	6.6%	1.14×	13.42

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.5%	92.7%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Lille to lead by 1 at any time	67.9%	69.5%	58.0%	1.20×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.7%	50.6%	51.3%	0.99×	1.98
Brest to lead by 1 at any time	41.8%	39.2%	49.6%	0.79×	2.55
Lille to lead by 2 at any time	36.9%	34.8%	29.5%	1.18×	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.2%	19.6%	20.1%	0.97×	5.11
Lille to lead by 3 at any time	16.3%	14.9%	11.9%	1.26×	6.71
Brest to lead by 2 at any time	14.0%	10.5%	22.0%	0.48×	9.52
Brest to lead by 3 at any time	3.8%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	60.54

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille most corners	72.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.42
Brest most corners	19.8%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Corners level	8.3%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.4%	85.0%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.6%	78.6%	76.4%	1.03×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.7%	78.6%	73.9%	1.06×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.2%	72.4%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.4%	60.4%	1.05×	1.58
1-3 goals	61.4%	63.4%	59.4%	1.07×	1.58
3-6 goals	52.6%	53.2%	50.9%	1.05×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.1%	48.7%	45.9%	1.06×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.5%	48.7%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06
1-2 goals	39.0%	39.2%	39.3%	1.00×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.6%	39.2%	37.3%	1.05×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.3%	35.4%	30.7%	1.15×	2.83
4-5 goals	25.7%	30.2%	25.7%	1.17×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.0%	14.9%	13.7%	1.08×	6.72
7+ goals	2.9%	2.6%	3.6%	0.71×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille never behind	52.7%	61.9%	50.4%	1.23×	1.62
Brest never behind	26.6%	30.0%	42.0%	0.72×	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	47.3%	1.08×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.2%	52.7%	0.93×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.7%	51.6%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.3%	48.4%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	52.1%	49.5%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	47.9%	50.5%	0.95×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	91.4%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.1%	82.4%	82.8%	0.99×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	78.6%	77.4%	77.4%	1.00×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	66.9%	66.2%	65.8%	1.01×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	55.5%	58.8%	54.3%	1.08×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	44.5%	41.2%	45.7%	0.90×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	33.1%	33.8%	34.2%	0.99×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	21.4%	22.6%	22.6%	1.00×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	16.9%	17.6%	17.2%	1.03×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	8.6%	0.90×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	6.6%	1.18×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.0%	97.2%	96.2%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.8%	92.5%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.8%	76.0%	79.3%	0.96×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.2%	72.6%	70.6%	1.03×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.3%	55.4%	57.2%	0.97×	1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.7%	44.6%	42.8%	1.04×	2.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.8%	27.4%	29.4%	0.93×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.2%	24.0%	20.7%	1.16×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.2%	7.5%	9.4%	0.80×	13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.0%	2.8%	3.8%	0.73×	36.13

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.4%	89.0%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.7%	71.2%	71.5%	1.00×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.3%	68.9%	66.1%	1.04×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.7%	31.1%	33.9%	0.92×	3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.3%	28.8%	28.5%	1.01×	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.6%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.07

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.3%	82.8%	81.4%	1.02×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.3%	79.7%	75.4%	1.06×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.0%	53.1%	51.3%	1.03×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.0%	46.9%	48.7%	0.96×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.7%	20.3%	24.6%	0.82×	4.93
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.7%	17.2%	18.6%	0.93×	5.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest not to score in both halves	81.9%	84.3%	77.4%	1.09×	1.19
Lille not to score in both halves	66.7%	70.4%	68.0%	1.04×	1.42
Lille to score in both halves	33.3%	29.6%	32.0%	0.93×	3.38
Brest to score in both halves	18.1%	15.7%	22.6%	0.70×	6.36

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.9%	58.4%	54.0%	1.08×	1.71
Only Lille scores	27.6%	26.1%	23.7%	1.10×	3.83
Only Brest scores	11.1%	10.9%	16.1%	0.68×	9.15
Neither team scores	5.5%	7.2%	6.6%	1.10×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.1%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	20.3%	1.11×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	16.2%	17.4%	17.2%	1.02×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	15.9%	17.4%	16.2%	1.07×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	9.4%	7.6%	8.7%	0.88×	13.08
6 or more goals	7.4%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	5.5%	7.6%	6.6%	1.17×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.0%	45.2%	48.7%	0.93×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	31.3%	33.4%	32.9%	1.01×	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	18.7%	17.2%	18.6%	0.93×	5.82

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest not to win both halves	95.4%	97.2%	90.6%	1.07×	1.03
Lille not to win both halves	83.4%	84.3%	83.3%	1.01×	1.19
Lille to win both halves	16.6%	15.7%	16.7%	0.94×	6.35
Brest to win both halves	4.6%	2.8%	9.4%	0.30×	35.29

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to win either half	66.2%	67.8%	58.2%	1.17×	1.48
Brest to win neither half	61.1%	65.0%	53.7%	1.21×	1.54
Brest to win either half	38.9%	35.0%	46.3%	0.76×	2.86
Lille to win neither half	33.8%	32.2%	41.8%	0.77×	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brest not to win to nil	88.9%	88.2%	83.9%	1.05×	1.13
Lille not to win to nil	72.4%	75.3%	76.3%	0.99×	1.33
Lille to win to nil	27.6%	24.7%	23.7%	1.04×	4.05
Brest to win to nil	11.1%	11.8%	16.1%	0.73×	8.50

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille by 1	23.5%	24.2%	20.7%	1.16×	4.14
Draw	23.2%	24.2%	22.8%	1.06×	4.14
Lille by 2	16.4%	16.9%	15.1%	1.12×	5.91
Brest by 1	14.5%	11.8%	15.1%	0.78×	8.47
Lille by 3+	13.6%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.47
Brest by 2	6.2%	7.3%	9.8%	0.74×	13.79
Brest by 3+	2.6%	2.7%	7.2%	0.38×	37.00