Lille v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 March 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 5
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 4
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-0.95 – -0.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lille win
46.4%
Draw
30.3%
Lens win
23.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWDDWLWWLL last 10
scored 18
from 24.1 xG
conceded 16
from 13.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lille 1.95 xGLens 0.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lille attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 3' |
Lille |
Ismaily | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 4' |
Lille |
Aissa Mandi | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 5' |
Lille |
André Gomes | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Lille |
Mitchel Bakker | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 26' |
Lille |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | André Gomes |
| 28' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ngal'ayel Mukau |
| 47' |
Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ismaily |
| 48' |
Lille |
Ngal'ayel Mukau | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mitchel Bakker |
| 56' |
 Lens |
Neil El Aynaoui | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ruben Aguilar |
| 86' |
Lens |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jeremy Agbonifo |
| 87' |
Lens |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jeremy Agbonifo |
| 89' |
Lens |
Jeremy Agbonifo | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anass Zaroury |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Meunier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Mitchel Bakker FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.60 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Bafode Diakite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Benjamin André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lucas Chevalier GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ismaily DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| André Gomes MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.70 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo FWL | 69 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.55 | 0.11 | 1.65 |
| Osame Sahraoui Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nabil Bentaleb Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chuba Akpom Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M'Bala Nzola FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Neil El Aynaoui MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Facundo Medina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Deiver Machado DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ruben Aguilar DMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Kyllian Antonio DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Sotoca FWR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nampalys Mendy MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wesley Said FWL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrien Thomasson Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Andy Diouf Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Goduine Koyalipou Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jeremy Agbonifo Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.17 | 0.47 |
| Anass Zaroury Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.40 |