Lille v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Lille

14:00 UTC

Lens

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 195h before kick-off

Lille win

45.2%

model 41.9%

Draw

23.8%

model 23.9%

Lens win

31.0%

model 34.2%

452431

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.9%
2-1 8.9%
1-2 7.9%
1-0 7.6%
0-1 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.0%	Under 2.5	41.0%
BTTS yes	61.2%	BTTS no	38.8%
Lille 1+	80.2%	Lille 2+	48.1%
Lens 1+	76.3%	Lens 2+	42.2%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.44. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

3-5 goals

Multi goal · usually 47%

52.2% fair odds 1.91

moderate signal · 1995 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lens not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 84%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Lens were missing 1.43 expected goal involvements a match against 1.04.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Lille have an estimated 45.2% win probability, against 31.0% for Lens and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.62 for Lille and 1.44 for Lens.

Why Lille

Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Lens were missing 1.43 expected goal involvements a match against 1.04.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.62 to 1.44. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Lens can win

Away from home Lens average 2.03 xG a match.

Key players

Lille's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Matias Fernandez-Pardo (0.49), Hákon Haraldsson (0.32), Olivier Giroud (0.29). Lens's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Florian Thauvin (0.66), Odsonne Edouard (0.42), Adrien Thomasson (0.41).

Availability

2 of Lille's top three contributors did not start their last match. Lille changed goalkeeper for their last match. 27% of Lille's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Lens's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Lens's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lille: 56% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.42 xG a match from set pieces. Lens: 52% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.34 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Lille are the model's most likely outcome at 45.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.9%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lille are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWLWDWWLWD last 10 scored 12 from 14.3 xG conceded 8 from 11.8 xG

Lens are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WLWWLLDLWW last 10 scored 19 from 21.6 xG conceded 13 from 13.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	422434	1.62–1.44	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	432532	1.55–1.30	1-1 12%	54%	57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to win	40.7%	42.9%	31.4%	1.37×	2.33
Lille to win	35.8%	36.3%	46.2%	0.79×	2.75
Draw	23.5%	24.5%	22.6%	1.08×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens & both teams score	23.2%	21.8%	15.9%	1.37×	4.58
Lille & both teams score	20.6%	21.8%	22.7%	0.96×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Lens & not both score	17.5%	18.0%	15.6%	1.15×	5.56
Lille & not both score	15.2%	18.0%	23.6%	0.76×	5.57
Draw & not both score	4.2%	4.9%	6.3%	0.77×	20.57

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens & over 1.5	33.8%	30.8%	25.4%	1.21×	3.25
Lille & over 1.5	29.3%	26.1%	36.1%	0.72×	3.84
Lens & over 2.5	28.1%	26.1%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
Lille & over 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	28.8%	0.75×	4.63
Lens & under 3.5	24.4%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.63
Lille & under 3.5	21.9%	21.6%	29.5%	0.73×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Lens & over 3.5	16.3%	18.0%	11.2%	1.61×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.8%	12.8%	16.1%	0.80×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.8%	12.8%	16.1%	0.80×	7.79
Lille & over 3.5	13.9%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.79
Lens & under 2.5	12.6%	12.8%	11.7%	1.10×	7.79
Lille & under 2.5	11.3%	12.8%	17.6%	0.73×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	8.8%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.8%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Lille & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Lens & under 1.5	6.9%	7.9%	6.2%	1.28×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.3%	0.76×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (1UP)	59.1%	58.1%	48.9%	1.19×	1.72
Lille (1UP)	55.0%	52.7%	59.1%	0.89×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (2UP)	40.7%	47.0%	33.7%	1.40×	2.13
Lille (2UP)	35.8%	37.3%	48.2%	0.77×	2.68

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to win 2nd half	35.3%	35.9%	27.0%	1.33×	2.78
Lille to win 2nd half	33.6%	34.4%	41.9%	0.82×	2.91
2nd half drawn	31.1%	34.3%	31.3%	1.10×	2.92

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.4%	75.4%	82.2%	0.92×	1.33
Lens over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.4%	60.3%	50.3%	1.20×	1.66
Lens under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.6%	39.7%	49.7%	0.80×	2.52
Lens over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.6%	24.6%	17.8%	1.38×	4.07

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.6%	74.1%	75.5%	0.98×	1.35
Lille over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.2%	63.3%	62.1%	1.02×	1.58
Lille under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.8%	36.7%	37.9%	0.97×	2.72
Lille over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.4%	25.9%	24.5%	1.06×	3.86

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (+2.5)	93.4%	92.1%	90.1%	1.02×	1.09
Lens (+1.5)	82.9%	82.5%	75.5%	1.09×	1.21
Lens (+0.5)	64.2%	63.0%	53.8%	1.17×	1.59
Lille (+0.5)	59.3%	57.1%	68.6%	0.83×	1.75
Lens (-0.5)	40.7%	42.9%	31.4%	1.37×	2.33
Lille (-0.5)	35.8%	37.0%	46.2%	0.80×	2.70
Lille (-1.5)	17.1%	17.5%	24.5%	0.71×	5.73
Lille (-2.5)	6.6%	7.9%	9.9%	0.80×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to concede	78.2%	78.8%	78.2%	1.01×	1.27
Lens clean sheet	21.8%	21.2%	21.8%	0.97×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens clean sheet in 1st half	57.5%	57.0%	51.8%	1.10×	1.75
Lens to concede in 1st half	42.5%	43.0%	48.2%	0.89×	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to concede in 2nd half	62.2%	61.8%	62.1%	1.00×	1.62
Lens clean sheet in 2nd half	37.8%	38.2%	37.9%	1.01×	2.62

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens over 2.5 corners	79.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Lens under 6.5 corners	73.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Lens over 3.5 corners	65.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Lens under 5.5 corners	62.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lens over 4.5 corners	51.2%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Lens under 4.5 corners	48.8%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Lens over 5.5 corners	38.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lens under 3.5 corners	34.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Lens over 6.5 corners	27.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Lens under 2.5 corners	20.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens under 3.5 goals	91.6%	92.3%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
Lens over 0.5 goals	80.6%	81.4%	70.2%	1.16×	1.23
Lens under 2.5 goals	77.3%	76.3%	84.5%	0.90×	1.31
Lens under 1.5 goals	51.2%	53.5%	63.1%	0.85×	1.87
Lens over 1.5 goals	48.8%	46.5%	36.9%	1.26×	2.15
Lens over 2.5 goals	22.7%	23.7%	15.5%	1.53×	4.21
Lens under 0.5 goals	19.4%	18.6%	29.8%	0.62×	5.39
Lens over 3.5 goals	8.4%	7.7%	6.3%	1.21×	13.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens under 1.5 in 1st half	86.6%	89.1%	87.8%	1.02×	1.12
Lens under 0.5 in 1st half	52.9%	55.7%	58.0%	0.96×	1.80
Lens over 0.5 in 1st half	47.1%	44.3%	42.0%	1.05×	2.26
Lens over 1.5 in 1st half	13.4%	10.9%	12.2%	0.89×	9.19

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens scores more in 2nd half	43.4%	43.7%	34.5%	1.27×	2.29
Lens scores equally in both	33.9%	33.5%	41.0%	0.82×	2.99
Lens scores more in 1st half	22.7%	22.1%	24.6%	0.90×	4.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (away no bet)	60.3%	61.9%	67.2%	0.92×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	39.7%	38.1%	32.8%	1.16×	2.62

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens even goals	51.9%	52.6%	55.8%	0.94×	1.90
Lens odd goals	48.1%	47.4%	44.2%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.4%	82.8%	82.6%	1.00×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.6%	17.2%	17.4%	0.99×	5.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.5%	67.4%	65.9%	1.02×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.5%	32.6%	34.1%	0.96×	3.07

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.2%	60.1%	60.6%	0.99×	1.66
Lens to score 2+ in a row	38.3%	36.7%	28.1%	1.31×	2.73
Lille to score 2+ in a row	34.3%	29.3%	38.6%	0.76×	3.42
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.3%	19.7%	22.3%	0.88×	5.09
Lens to score 3+ in a row	13.6%	12.1%	9.2%	1.32×	8.28
Lille to score 3+ in a row	11.3%	12.0%	13.7%	0.87×	8.33

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens corners (+3.5)	82.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Lille corners (+3.5)	79.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Lens corners (+2.5)	75.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Lille corners (+2.5)	72.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Lens corners (+1.5)	67.1%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Lille corners (+1.5)	63.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lens corners (-1.5)	36.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lille corners (-1.5)	32.9%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Lens corners (-2.5)	27.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Lille corners (-2.5)	24.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Lens corners (-3.5)	20.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Lille corners (-3.5)	17.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	41.3%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
12+ corners	30.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	27.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	76.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	69.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	68.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	60.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	58.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	51.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	48.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	41.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	39.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	31.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	30.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	23.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.6%	11.5%	9.9%	1.16×	8.72
1-2	8.7%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.51
0-1	6.9%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.51
2-1	8.1%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
2-2	6.6%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
0-2	5.7%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.51
1-0	6.4%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
1-3	4.7%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.29
2-0	4.9%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.29
0-0	4.2%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.30
0-3	3.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.30
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
2-3	3.6%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.30
2-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.31
3-0	2.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	6.0%	0.28×	58.30
3-2	3.4%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.30
3-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.31
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.31
4-1	1.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.4%	3.88×	58.32
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.81×	58.32
Any other score	4.5%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.29

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (2nd half DNB)	51.2%	52.7%	39.2%	1.34×	1.90
Lille (2nd half DNB)	48.8%	47.3%	60.8%	0.78×	2.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens leading at HT (DNB)	54.6%	56.1%	45.8%	1.22×	1.78
Lille leading at HT (DNB)	45.4%	43.9%	54.2%	0.81×	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille or Lens (12)	76.5%	75.6%	77.4%	0.98×	1.32
Lens or draw (X2)	64.2%	63.7%	53.8%	1.18×	1.57
Lille or draw (1X)	59.3%	57.1%	68.6%	0.83×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw at HT	73.7%	74.9%	66.5%	1.13×	1.33
Lille or draw at HT	68.4%	67.2%	71.7%	0.94×	1.49
Lille or Lens at HT	57.9%	57.1%	61.7%	0.93×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens or draw (1UP)	64.2%	71.7%	61.6%	1.16×	1.39
Lille or draw (1UP)	59.3%	63.2%	73.1%	0.86×	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille or Lens in 2nd half	68.9%	65.7%	68.7%	0.96×	1.52
Lens or draw in 2nd half	66.4%	65.6%	58.1%	1.13×	1.52
Lille or draw in 2nd half	64.7%	64.1%	73.0%	0.88×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.1%	61.4%	56.9%	1.08×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.9%	38.6%	43.1%	0.90×	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (DNB)	53.2%	51.0%	40.5%	1.26×	1.96
Lille (DNB)	46.8%	49.0%	59.5%	0.82×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to score first	49.6%	46.1%	43.4%	1.06×	2.17
Lille to score first	46.2%	45.9%	50.4%	0.91×	2.18
No goal scored	4.2%	4.3%	6.4%	0.68×	23.27

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.1%	56.7%	54.7%	1.04×	1.77
Not both teams to score	36.9%	43.3%	45.3%	0.96×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	52.5%	47.3%	45.0%	1.05×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	28.2%	33.3%	35.3%	0.95×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	10.6%	12.4%	9.9%	1.25×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.8%	8.3%	10.2%	0.81×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	78.0%	79.7%	84.5%	0.94×	1.26
Both teams to score 2+	22.0%	20.3%	15.5%	1.31×	4.92

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	60.6%	65.4%	69.5%	0.94×	1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half	39.4%	34.6%	30.5%	1.13×	2.89

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	48.5%	53.0%	57.2%	0.93×	1.89
Both score 2nd half only	31.5%	27.2%	24.2%	1.13×	3.68
Both score 1st half only	12.1%	10.7%	12.4%	0.87×	9.32
Both score in both halves	7.9%	6.8%	6.5%	1.05×	14.67

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.0%	83.2%	81.3%	1.02×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	20.0%	16.8%	18.7%	0.90×	5.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.9%	57.4%	59.7%	0.96×	1.74
A half without a goal	40.1%	42.6%	40.3%	1.06×	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.4%	42.1%	43.4%	0.97×	2.37
4-6 goals	34.7%	30.8%	30.8%	1.00×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.6%	20.2%	22.4%	0.90×	4.94
7+ goals	4.2%	1.8%	3.7%	0.50×	54.07

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to score exactly 1	31.8%	33.8%	33.5%	1.01×	2.96
Lens to score exactly 2	26.1%	27.4%	21.5%	1.27×	3.66
Lens to score 3+	22.7%	22.3%	15.5%	1.44×	4.48
Lens to score exactly 0	19.4%	19.6%	29.8%	0.66×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to score exactly 1	33.2%	32.6%	31.9%	1.02×	3.07
Lille to score exactly 2	25.3%	26.5%	24.0%	1.10×	3.77
Lille to score exactly 0	21.8%	23.3%	21.8%	1.07×	4.29
Lille to score 3+	19.8%	18.8%	22.6%	0.83×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.1%	42.9%	38.3%	1.12×	2.33
Lens leading at HT	31.6%	32.8%	28.3%	1.16×	3.05
Lille leading at HT	26.3%	25.1%	33.5%	0.75×	3.99

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens -1: 1	59.3%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Lens -1: 2	20.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Lens -1: X	20.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (0:1)	64.2%	61.4%	53.8%	1.14×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	18.6%	17.8%	21.8%	0.82×	5.61
Lille (0:1)	17.1%	17.8%	24.5%	0.73×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (0:2)	82.9%	82.9%	75.5%	1.10×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.5%	11.0%	14.7%	0.74×	9.11
Lille (0:2)	6.6%	7.7%	9.9%	0.78×	13.05

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (0:3)	93.4%	92.7%	90.1%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.5%	2.4%	5.9%	0.40×	42.01
Lille (0:3)	2.1%	2.4%	4.1%	0.57×	42.12

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (0:4)	97.9%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	2.8%	0.44×	81.93
Lille (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.5%	0.83×	82.04

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (1:0)	59.3%	58.4%	68.6%	0.85×	1.71
Lens (1:0)	20.7%	21.7%	16.8%	1.29×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	20.0%	21.7%	14.7%	1.47×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (2:0)	79.3%	80.5%	83.2%	0.97×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.2%	10.3%	9.9%	1.04×	9.72
Lens (2:0)	8.5%	6.4%	7.1%	0.90×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	55.7%	56.8%	48.2%	1.18×	1.76
1st half highest scoring	22.6%	24.4%	26.0%	0.94×	4.09
Halves equal	21.7%	24.4%	26.0%	0.94×	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to concede	80.6%	80.8%	70.2%	1.15×	1.24
Lille clean sheet	19.4%	19.2%	29.8%	0.64×	5.21

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille clean sheet in 1st half	52.9%	55.7%	58.0%	0.96×	1.80
Lille to concede in 1st half	47.1%	44.3%	42.0%	1.05×	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to concede in 2nd half	63.4%	59.9%	50.3%	1.19×	1.67
Lille clean sheet in 2nd half	36.6%	40.1%	49.7%	0.81×	2.50

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille over 2.5 corners	77.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Lille under 6.5 corners	75.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Lille under 5.5 corners	65.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Lille over 3.5 corners	62.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Lille under 4.5 corners	51.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Lille over 4.5 corners	48.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Lille under 3.5 corners	37.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Lille over 5.5 corners	35.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Lille over 6.5 corners	24.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Lille under 2.5 corners	22.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 3.5 goals	93.1%	92.2%	91.6%	1.01×	1.08
Lille under 2.5 goals	80.2%	82.2%	77.4%	1.06×	1.22
Lille over 0.5 goals	78.2%	77.7%	78.2%	0.99×	1.29
Lille under 1.5 goals	54.9%	53.2%	53.5%	0.99×	1.88
Lille over 1.5 goals	45.1%	46.8%	46.5%	1.01×	2.14
Lille under 0.5 goals	21.8%	22.3%	21.8%	1.02×	4.49
Lille over 2.5 goals	19.8%	17.8%	22.6%	0.79×	5.62
Lille over 3.5 goals	6.9%	7.8%	8.4%	0.92×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 1.5 in 1st half	89.3%	90.3%	87.2%	1.04×	1.11
Lille under 0.5 in 1st half	57.5%	56.8%	51.8%	1.10×	1.76
Lille over 0.5 in 1st half	42.5%	43.2%	48.2%	0.90×	2.31
Lille over 1.5 in 1st half	10.7%	9.7%	12.8%	0.75×	10.35

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille scores more in 2nd half	44.6%	42.3%	40.9%	1.04×	2.36
Lille scores equally in both	35.1%	37.7%	36.6%	1.03×	2.65
Lille scores more in 1st half	20.3%	21.2%	22.7%	0.93×	4.72

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens (home no bet)	63.4%	60.0%	58.2%	1.03×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	36.6%	40.0%	41.8%	0.96×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille even goals	52.4%	50.7%	51.8%	0.98×	1.97
Lille odd goals	47.6%	49.3%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.5%	33.1%	28.5%	1.16×	3.03
HT 0-1	19.4%	18.7%	16.8%	1.11×	5.36
HT 1-0	16.8%	18.6%	21.5%	0.86×	5.37
HT 1-1	10.7%	11.0%	9.4%	1.16×	9.13
HT 0-2	6.2%	6.9%	5.2%	1.34×	14.49
HT 2-0	4.7%	2.4%	6.8%	0.35×	41.99
Any other HT score	4.5%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	42.00
HT 1-2	3.4%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.07
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.4%	3.2%	0.73×	42.10
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	0.7%	3.21×	42.24

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens at HT / Lens at FT	22.9%	21.7%	18.9%	1.15×	4.62
Lille at HT / Lille at FT	18.5%	16.8%	27.7%	0.60×	5.97
Draw at HT / Lens at FT	14.9%	12.7%	10.9%	1.16×	7.89
Draw at HT / Lille at FT	14.2%	12.7%	15.0%	0.84×	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.1%	12.7%	12.7%	1.00×	7.90
Lens at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	6.0%	0.99×	16.66
Lille at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	4.1%	0.85×	28.61
Lens at HT / Lille at FT	3.1%	3.5%	3.7%	0.95×	28.68
Lille at HT / Lens at FT	2.9%	3.5%	1.9%	1.82×	28.68

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to score last	49.6%	46.6%	40.9%	1.14×	2.15
Lille to score last	46.2%	46.4%	52.9%	0.88×	2.15
No goal scored	4.2%	4.3%	6.4%	0.68×	23.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.8%	95.6%	93.6%	1.02×	1.05
Lens to lead by 1 at any time	59.1%	54.9%	48.9%	1.12×	1.82
Lille to lead by 1 at any time	55.0%	50.9%	59.1%	0.86×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.4%	50.8%	51.6%	0.99×	1.97
Lens to lead by 2 at any time	28.3%	25.5%	21.7%	1.18×	3.92
Lille to lead by 2 at any time	24.5%	19.7%	30.0%	0.66×	5.08
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.0%	19.6%	19.8%	0.99×	5.10
Lens to lead by 3 at any time	11.1%	10.4%	8.3%	1.26×	9.59
Lille to lead by 3 at any time	8.9%	6.7%	11.7%	0.58×	14.85

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens most corners	47.0%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Lille most corners	42.7%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.6%	87.4%	85.3%	1.03×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.2%	78.7%	74.0%	1.06×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.5%	72.4%	76.8%	0.94×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.4%	69.2%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.1%	63.3%	60.8%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	57.0%	59.1%	51.5%	1.15×	1.69
1-3 goals	56.8%	59.1%	59.4%	0.99×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.1%	53.2%	46.6%	1.14×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.4%	43.6%	43.4%	1.01×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.0%	39.2%	38.2%	1.03×	2.55
4-6 goals	34.7%	35.2%	30.8%	1.14×	2.84
1-2 goals	34.5%	35.2%	38.8%	0.91×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.8%	30.2%	26.0%	1.16×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.1%	18.8%	13.4%	1.40×	5.31
7+ goals	4.2%	2.6%	3.7%	0.69×	39.03

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens never behind	40.8%	48.4%	40.9%	1.18×	2.07
Lille never behind	36.7%	44.0%	51.1%	0.86×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	47.8%	1.07×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	52.2%	0.94×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.6%	51.6%	51.5%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.4%	48.4%	48.5%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.0%	51.9%	50.1%	1.04×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.0%	48.1%	49.9%	0.96×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.8%	95.4%	93.7%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.9%	87.6%	91.4%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	82.4%	82.3%	77.6%	1.06×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	78.7%	77.3%	83.0%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	61.3%	61.7%	55.0%	1.12×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	61.0%	61.7%	65.6%	0.94×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	39.0%	38.3%	34.4%	1.11×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	38.7%	38.3%	45.0%	0.85×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	21.3%	22.7%	17.0%	1.34×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	17.6%	17.7%	22.4%	0.79×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	10.1%	12.4%	8.6%	1.45×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	4.2%	4.6%	6.3%	0.72×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.5%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.6%	86.7%	90.7%	0.96×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.7%	75.9%	71.0%	1.07×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	74.1%	72.4%	79.5%	0.91×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.2%	51.9%	43.3%	1.20×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.8%	48.1%	56.7%	0.85×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	25.9%	27.6%	20.5%	1.34×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.3%	24.1%	29.0%	0.83×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.4%	13.3%	9.3%	1.42×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.5%	2.8%	3.9%	0.73×	35.53

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.2%	89.2%	87.5%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.5%	68.6%	71.5%	0.96×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.7%	68.5%	66.5%	1.03×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.3%	31.5%	33.5%	0.94×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.5%	31.4%	28.5%	1.10×	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.8%	10.8%	12.5%	0.86×	9.26

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.2%	85.4%	81.9%	1.04×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	68.3%	68.8%	75.4%	0.91×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	58.8%	54.9%	49.9%	1.10×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	41.2%	45.1%	50.1%	0.90×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	31.7%	31.2%	24.6%	1.27×	3.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.8%	14.6%	18.1%	0.80×	6.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille not to score in both halves	73.6%	73.9%	67.8%	1.09×	1.35
Lens not to score in both halves	70.2%	73.8%	77.9%	0.95×	1.36
Lens to score in both halves	29.8%	26.2%	22.1%	1.19×	3.81
Lille to score in both halves	26.4%	26.1%	32.2%	0.81×	3.84

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	63.1%	60.3%	54.7%	1.10×	1.66
Only Lens scores	17.5%	16.0%	15.6%	1.02×	6.24
Only Lille scores	15.2%	16.0%	23.6%	0.68×	6.25
Neither team scores	4.2%	4.6%	6.3%	0.73×	21.68

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	20.8%	1.09×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.1%	22.6%	22.7%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.7%	17.5%	17.6%	0.99×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.4%	12.1%	16.2%	0.75×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	11.2%	12.1%	8.6%	1.42×	8.25
6 or more goals	10.1%	12.1%	8.6%	1.42×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	4.2%	4.5%	6.3%	0.70×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.3%	38.2%	0.98×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	30.5%	35.7%	28.5%	1.26×	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	21.5%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	11.8%	10.7%	12.5%	0.85×	9.33

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	58.8%	54.2%	49.9%	1.09×	1.84
1 goal in 2nd half	27.4%	29.2%	32.2%	0.91×	3.43
No goals in 2nd half	13.8%	14.4%	18.1%	0.79×	6.95

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille not to win both halves	91.2%	94.1%	83.6%	1.12×	1.06
Lens not to win both halves	88.9%	88.0%	90.7%	0.97×	1.14
Lens to win both halves	11.1%	12.0%	9.3%	1.29×	8.34
Lille to win both halves	8.8%	5.9%	16.4%	0.36×	16.88

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lens to win either half	55.7%	59.1%	46.0%	1.28×	1.69
Lille to win either half	51.1%	54.2%	59.0%	0.92×	1.85
Lille to win neither half	48.9%	45.8%	41.0%	1.12×	2.18
Lens to win neither half	44.3%	40.9%	54.0%	0.76×	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille not to win to nil	84.8%	83.1%	76.4%	1.09×	1.20
Lens not to win to nil	82.5%	83.1%	84.4%	0.99×	1.20
Lens to win to nil	17.5%	16.9%	15.6%	1.08×	5.92
Lille to win to nil	15.2%	16.9%	23.6%	0.72×	5.93

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.5%	24.1%	22.6%	1.07×	4.15
Lens by 1	20.0%	24.1%	14.7%	1.63×	4.15
Lille by 1	18.6%	17.0%	21.8%	0.78×	5.87
Lens by 2	12.2%	11.8%	9.9%	1.19×	8.51
Lille by 2	10.5%	11.8%	14.7%	0.80×	8.51
Lens by 3+	8.5%	7.2%	7.1%	1.02×	13.90
Lille by 3+	6.6%	7.2%	9.9%	0.73×	13.91