Lille v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 9
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.13
Goals − xG
+0.15 – +0.07
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lille win
51.2%
Draw
24.9%
Lorient win
23.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Lorient are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWLDWLDLW last 10
scored 13
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.91–1.06 | 1-1 10% | 57% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lille 0.85 xGLorient 0.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lille attacking right
Lorient attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Lille |
Tiago Santos | 0.22 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Benjamin André |
| 17' |
 Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Arthur Avom |
| 19' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tiago Santos |
| 35' |
Lorient |
Aiyegun Tosin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Cadiou |
| 38' |
Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Lorient |
Aiyegun Tosin | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Montassar Talbi |
| 50' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin André |
| 52' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aiyegun Tosin |
| 53' |
Lille |
Tiago Santos | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 54' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 57' |
Lille |
Gaetan Perrin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 58' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 61' |
Lille |
Gaetan Perrin | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Avom |
| 64' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nabil Bentaleb |
| 69' |
Lille |
Tiago Santos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 70' |
Lille |
Gaetan Perrin | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 71' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dermane Karim |
| 81' |
Lille |
Aissa Mandi | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Correia |
| 92' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Bamo Meïté |
| 95' |
Lorient |
Darline Yongwa | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.02 | 0.71 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.66 |
| Nabil Bentaleb MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.32 | 0.69 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Benjamin André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| Gaetan Perrin FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Tiago Santos DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.02 | 0.62 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thomas Meunier Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felix Correia Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Noah Edjouma Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Soriba Diaoune Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.02 | 0.60 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdoulaye Faye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Dermane Karim ML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| Panos Katseris DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Arsène Kouassi DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.64 |
| Aiyegun Tosin FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo MR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Théo Le Bris Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Darline Yongwa Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sambou Soumano Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Semedo Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |