Lille v Metz — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 10
On target
12 – 4
Shots in box
18 – 9
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.82 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+2.15 – -0.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lille win
76.9%
Draw
13.1%
Metz win
10.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 11.1 xG
conceded 23
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.62–0.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.73–0.70 | 2-0 12% | 67% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lille 3.85 xGMetz 1.01 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lille attacking right
Metz attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Correia |
| 7' |
Lille |
Hamza Igamane | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Felix Correia |
| 9' |
Lille |
Chancel Mbemba | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 9' |
Lille |
Chancel Mbemba | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 9' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.53 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chancel Mbemba |
| 10' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 15' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Thomas Meunier |
| 23' |
Lille |
Hamza Igamane | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 25' |
 Metz |
Alpha Touré | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin André |
| 30' |
Lille |
Hamza Igamane | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 30' |
Metz |
Jessy Deminguet | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Giorgi Abuashvili |
| 33' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 38' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.22 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 39' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 48' |
Metz |
Giorgi Tsitaishvili | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Terry Yegbe |
| 51' |
Metz |
Giorgi Abuashvili | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cheick Tidiane Sabaly |
| 52' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 55' |
Metz |
Cheick Tidiane Sabaly | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ngal'ayel Mukau |
| 61' |
Metz |
Morgan Bokele | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Habib Diallo |
| 63' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 66' |
Metz |
Benjamin Stambouli | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 68' |
Metz |
Cheick Tidiane Sabaly | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giorgi Tsitaishvili |
| 68' |
Metz |
Giorgi Tsitaishvili | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Lille |
Osame Sahraoui | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 78' |
Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Correia |
| 81' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.55 | Open Play | — | Goal | Felix Correia |
| 85' |
Lille |
Marius Broholm | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 90' |
Lille |
Marius Broholm | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Soriba Diaoune |
| 94' |
Metz |
Ibou Sané | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Habib Diallo |
| 99' |
Lille |
Soriba Diaoune | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Marius Broholm |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0.67 | 0.82 | 2.53 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.05 | 1.33 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.89 |
| Chancel Mbemba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.53 | 0.33 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Thomas Meunier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Felix Correia AMR | 87 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.32 | 1.11 | 2.44 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo AML | 72 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0.85 | 0.47 | 0.79 |
| Hamza Igamane FW | 72 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi DMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Osame Sahraoui Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Nabil Bentaleb Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1.26 |
| Nathan Ngoy Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Marius Broholm Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Soriba Diaoune Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
Metz
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheick Tidiane Sabaly FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.03 | 0.65 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| Benjamin Stambouli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jessy Deminguet MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Habib Diallo FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Terry Yegbe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Pape Sy GK | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alpha Touré MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Giorgi Abuashvili FWL | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Koffi Kouao DR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Morgan Bokele Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Cleo Mélières Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gauthier Hein Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Jonathan Fischer Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibou Sané Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ismaël Guerti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |