Lille v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 6
On target
1 – 1
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
1.10 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.41 – -1.52
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lille win
40.6%
Draw
27.8%
Monaco win
31.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.42–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.31–1.46 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lille 2.41 xGMonaco 1.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lille attacking right
Monaco attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.39 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 16' |
 Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 18' |
Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 20' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Ngoy |
| 27' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Felix Correia |
| 33' |
Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Olivier Giroud |
| 38' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 50' |
Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Benjamin André |
| 59' |
Lille |
Ayyoub Bouaddi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Benjamin André |
| 60' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Felix Correia |
| 67' |
Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Olivier Giroud |
| 72' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Correia |
| 76' |
Monaco |
Vanderson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 79' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Olivier Giroud |
| 79' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 89' |
Lille |
Ayyoub Bouaddi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathan Ngoy |
| 89' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matias Fernandez-Pardo |
| 98' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.76 | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 98' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vanderson |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maghnes Akliouche FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.39 | 1.44 |
| Folarin Balogun FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Lamine Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Denis Zakaria MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Caio Henrique DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aleksandr Golovin MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Teze DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Takumi Minamino FWL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Vanderson Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| Ben Seghir Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kassoum Ouattara Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivier Giroud FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1.66 | 0.16 | 0.82 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.80 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.34 | 0.73 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 1.21 |
| Thomas Meunier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Felix Correia AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau AMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo Sub | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| Nabil Bentaleb Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |