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Lille v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 4 January 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

1–1
1.13 – 1.07 xG
Shots
13 – 6
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 4
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.76
Goals − xG
-0.15 – -0.07
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.61.01.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Gabriel Gudmundsson 40' — goalMatthis Abline 69' — goal
Lille 1.15 xGNantes 1.07 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Matthis Abline 11' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ignatius Ganago 21' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Johann Lepenant 22' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Benjamin André 24' — Blocked Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Hákon Haraldsson 27' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Rémy Cabella 39' — Shot On Post (0.06 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Gudmundsson 40' — Goal (0.33 xG, Open Play)Rémy Cabella 45' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 47' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Ngal'ayel Mukau 56' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Osame Sahraoui 56' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Rémy Cabella 59' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Ngal'ayel Mukau 63' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 69' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Matthis Abline 71' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Benjamin André 72' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)Gabriel Gudmundsson 75' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Alexsandro Ribeiro 90' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Rémy Cabella 90' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)
Lille attacking right Nantes attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
11' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Douglas Augusto
21' Nantes Ignatius Ganago 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Matthis Abline
22' Nantes Johann Lepenant 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Matthis Abline
24' Lille Benjamin André 0.15 Open Play Blocked Shot Rémy Cabella
27' Lille Hákon Haraldsson 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Osame Sahraoui
39' Lille Rémy Cabella 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Benjamin André
40' Lille Gabriel Gudmundsson 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Goal
45' Lille Rémy Cabella 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Gabriel Gudmundsson
47' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
56' Lille Ngal'ayel Mukau 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Osame Sahraoui
56' Lille Osame Sahraoui 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Rémy Cabella
59' Lille Rémy Cabella 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
63' Lille Ngal'ayel Mukau 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jonathan Christian David
69' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.76 Right Foot Goal
71' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ignatius Ganago
72' Lille Benjamin André 0.09 Set Piece Missed Shot Rémy Cabella
75' Lille Gabriel Gudmundsson 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
90' Lille Alexsandro Ribeiro 0.05 From Corner Blocked Shot Rémy Cabella
90' Lille Rémy Cabella 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Benjamin André

Players

Lille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Rémy Cabella AML 90 0 0 4 4 0.24 0.40 0.87
Benjamin André DMC 90 0 0 2 2 0.24 0.10 0.31
Hákon Haraldsson AMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.14
Alexsandro Ribeiro DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.21
Aissa Mandi DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.27
Bafode Diakite DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Lucas Chevalier GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jonathan Christian David FW 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.15
Gabriel Gudmundsson DL 81 1 0 2 1 0.35 0.03 0.60
Osame Sahraoui Sub 81 0 0 1 2 0.12 0.12 0.34
Ngal'ayel Mukau DMC 81 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.22
Matias Fernandez-Pardo AMR 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ismaily Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
André Gomes Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Thomas Meunier Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04

Nantes

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Matthis Abline FW 90 1 0 4 2 0.92 0.15 0.31
Johann Lepenant MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.15
Nicolas Cozza DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Nathan Zeze DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kelvin Adou DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sorba Thomas MR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Anthony Lopes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Douglas Augusto MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.17
Jean-Charles Castelletto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ignatius Ganago ML 87 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.03 0.18
Pedro Chirivella DMC 67 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mostafa Mohamed Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Marcus Coco Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicolas Pallois Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jean-Philippe Gbamin Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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