Lille v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lille are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Nantes are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.86–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.09–0.90 | 2-0 11% | 57% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Expected goals by minute
Reading the shot map
Shot map
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Nantes |
Ignatius Ganago | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Johann Lepenant |
| 14' |
 Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 18' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Felix Correia |
| 33' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ngal'ayel Mukau |
| 35' |
Lille |
Tiago Santos | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chancel Mbemba |
| 53' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 66' |
Nantes |
Matthis Abline | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dehmaine Assoumani |
| 67' |
Lille |
Ngal'ayel Mukau | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin André |
| 78' |
Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Soriba Diaoune |
| 91' |
Nantes |
Rémy Cabella | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Francis Coquelin |
| 92' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Soriba Diaoune |
| 93' |
Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Thomas Meunier |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Chancel Mbemba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Calvin Verdonk DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| Gaetan Perrin AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Tiago Santos DR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Felix Correia AMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Thomas Meunier Sub | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Noah Edjouma Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Olivier Giroud Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Soriba Diaoune Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Nabil Bentaleb Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nantes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Cozza DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johann Lepenant MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Fabien Centonze DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ali Youssif DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chidozie Awaziem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Kaba MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ignatius Ganago FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Youssef El-Arabi FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Deiver Machado DL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Louis Leroux MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francis Coquelin Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Matthis Abline Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dehmaine Assoumani Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Rémy Cabella Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ibrahima Sissoko Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |