Lille v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 18
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 12
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.36
Goals − xG
-1.06 – +0.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lille win
58.1%
Draw
19.9%
Rennes win
22.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Rennes are conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWLWLDWW last 10
scored 21
from 20.4 xG
conceded 16
from 19.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.97–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.17–0.98 | 2-0 10% | 61% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lille 1.06 xGRennes 1.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lille attacking right
Rennes attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.11 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jérémy Jacquet |
| 10' |
Rennes |
Przemyslaw Frankowski | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mahdi Camara |
| 26' |
 Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Berke Özer |
| 27' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 31' |
Rennes |
Jérémy Jacquet | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Lille |
Thomas Meunier | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Olivier Giroud |
| 35' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
| 39' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Rennes |
Mohamed Meïté | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Quentin Merlin |
| 45' |
Rennes |
Jérémy Jacquet | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Valentin Rongier |
| 47' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Berke Özer |
| 47' |
Rennes |
Mousa Al Tamari | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lilian Brassier |
| 48' |
Rennes |
Przemyslaw Frankowski | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mousa Al Tamari |
| 48' |
Rennes |
Przemyslaw Frankowski | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Goal | Lilian Brassier |
| 50' |
Lille |
Calvin Verdonk | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Broholm |
| 55' |
Rennes |
Quentin Merlin | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Breel Embolo |
| 58' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Broholm |
| 58' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin André |
| 58' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin André |
| 64' |
Rennes |
Breel Embolo | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 72' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jérémy Jacquet |
| 75' |
Rennes |
Jérémy Jacquet | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ludovic Blas |
| 75' |
Rennes |
Lilian Brassier | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jérémy Jacquet |
| 76' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mahdi Camara |
| 79' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 80' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Benjamin André |
| 81' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Benjamin André |
| 82' |
Rennes |
Esteban Lepaul | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 87' |
Lille |
Ayyoub Bouaddi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Benjamin André |
| 89' |
Rennes |
Ludovic Blas | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Przemyslaw Frankowski |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Meunier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.05 | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nabil Bentaleb DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| Calvin Verdonk DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Olivier Giroud FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Marius Broholm AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Felix Correia Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Soriba Diaoune Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Santos Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro DC | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Osame Sahraoui Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Rennes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breel Embolo FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.46 | 0.72 |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.99 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| Lilian Brassier DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Mousa Al Tamari DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.72 |
| Valentin Rongier MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.68 |
| Brice Samba GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Alidu Seidu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Mahdi Camara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.84 |
| Quentin Merlin MC | 65 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.10 | 0.57 |
| Mohamed Meïté FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Esteban Lepaul Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Ludovic Blas Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| Elias Legendre Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |