Liverpool v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 31 August 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 11
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
4 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+0.52 – -0.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
40.6%
Draw
24.2%
Arsenal win
35.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–1.45 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–1.50 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 0.48 xGArsenal 0.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 21' |
 Arsenal |
Noni Madueke | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
Arsenal |
Declan Rice | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Arsenal |
Noni Madueke | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | David Raya |
| 38' |
Arsenal |
Jurriën Timber | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Viktor Gyokeres |
| 38' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Declan Rice |
| 51' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 59' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 62' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Arsenal |
Riccardo Calafiori | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jurriën Timber |
| 63' |
Arsenal |
Noni Madueke | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 72' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 73' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 82' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 94' |
Arsenal |
Max Dowman | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Arsenal |
Martín Zubimendi | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Viktor Gyokeres |
| 96' |
Liverpool |
Federico Chiesa | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noni Madueke FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Riccardo Calafiori DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jurriën Timber DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Martín Zubimendi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Declan Rice MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Viktor Gyokeres FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Cristhian Mosquera Sub | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Mikel Merino MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Gabriel Martinelli FWL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martin Odegaard Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eberechi Eze Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Saliba DC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Dowman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Wirtz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.25 |
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Cody Gakpo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| Curtis Jones Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Joseph Gomez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wataru Endo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |