Liverpool v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Liverpool

16:30 UTC

Arsenal

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 1,277h before kick-off

Liverpool win

28.9%

model 33.2%

Draw

27.4%

model 25.1%

Arsenal win

43.7%

model 41.7%

292744

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (554 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.8%
0-1 9.0%
1-2 8.9%
1-0 7.9%
2-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	53.3%	Under 2.5	46.7%
BTTS yes	56.7%	BTTS no	43.3%
Liverpool 1+	73.0%	Liverpool 2+	37.7%
Arsenal 1+	77.7%	Arsenal 2+	44.2%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.50. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Liverpool to win neither half

Win either half · usually 41%

53.8% fair odds 1.86

strong signal · 1077 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Liverpool not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 80%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1055 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Arsenal carry the stronger rating, 1920 Elo against 1687.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Arsenal have an estimated 43.7% win probability, against 28.9% for Liverpool and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.31 for Liverpool and 1.50 for Arsenal.

Why Liverpool

Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Arsenal were missing 0.99 expected goal involvements a match against 0.68.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.31 to 1.50. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Arsenal can win

Arsenal carry the stronger rating, 1920 Elo against 1687. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Liverpool's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mohamed Salah (0.52), Cody Gakpo (0.39), Dominik Szoboszlai (0.37). Arsenal's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bukayo Saka (0.50), Kai Havertz (0.45), Viktor Gyokeres (0.39).

Availability

1 of Liverpool's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Liverpool's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Arsenal's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Liverpool: 60% possession, 18.0 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.63 xG a match from set pieces. Arsenal: 53% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.50 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Arsenal are the model's most likely outcome at 43.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWWLDLDDDW last 10 scored 19 from 16.2 xG conceded 15 from 17.3 xG

Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWWWWWWWW last 10 scored 16 from 22.9 xG conceded 6 from 9.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	332542	1.31–1.50	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	242749	1.04–1.60	1-1 13%	49%	53%
dc-xg	302545	1.23–1.54	1-1 12%	52%	56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to win	41.7%	43.9%	32.3%	1.36×	2.28
Liverpool to win	33.2%	29.0%	43.1%	0.67×	3.45
Draw	25.1%	27.5%	24.7%	1.11×	3.64

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal & not both score	20.9%	22.7%	16.8%	1.35×	4.41
Arsenal & both teams score	20.8%	22.7%	15.5%	1.46×	4.41
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	17.8%	20.0%	0.89×	5.61
Liverpool & both teams score	16.9%	17.8%	22.9%	0.78×	5.62
Liverpool & not both score	16.3%	17.8%	20.3%	0.88×	5.62
Draw & not both score	6.0%	7.3%	4.9%	1.50×	13.73

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal & over 1.5	32.7%	33.1%	25.4%	1.30×	3.02
Arsenal & under 3.5	28.0%	25.5%	21.7%	1.18×	3.92
Arsenal & over 2.5	25.9%	25.5%	20.0%	1.28×	3.92
Liverpool & over 1.5	25.3%	25.5%	36.7%	0.70×	3.92
Liverpool & under 3.5	23.1%	21.5%	26.8%	0.80×	4.66
Liverpool & over 2.5	20.1%	21.5%	30.2%	0.71×	4.66
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	17.6%	20.0%	0.88×	5.68
Draw & under 2.5	17.9%	17.6%	16.3%	1.08×	5.68
Draw & under 3.5	17.9%	17.6%	16.3%	1.08×	5.68
Arsenal & under 2.5	15.8%	17.6%	12.4%	1.42×	5.68
Arsenal & over 3.5	13.7%	12.7%	10.7%	1.19×	7.87
Liverpool & under 2.5	13.1%	12.7%	13.0%	0.98×	7.87
Liverpool & over 3.5	10.1%	12.7%	16.4%	0.77×	7.88
Arsenal & under 1.5	9.0%	7.5%	6.9%	1.09×	13.33
Liverpool & under 1.5	7.9%	7.5%	6.5%	1.16×	13.34
Draw & over 2.5	7.3%	7.5%	8.5%	0.88×	13.34
Draw & over 3.5	7.3%	7.5%	8.5%	0.88×	13.34
Draw & under 1.5	6.0%	7.5%	4.9%	1.54×	13.35

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (1UP)	58.3%	62.2%	51.4%	1.21×	1.61
Liverpool (1UP)	51.0%	52.4%	62.1%	0.84×	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (2UP)	41.7%	46.6%	34.5%	1.35×	2.15
Liverpool (2UP)	33.2%	30.4%	44.9%	0.68×	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to win 2nd half	35.6%	37.4%	32.9%	1.14×	2.67
2nd half drawn	33.4%	33.8%	30.9%	1.09×	2.96
Liverpool to win 2nd half	31.0%	33.7%	36.3%	0.93×	2.97

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.6%	77.9%	79.8%	0.98×	1.28
Arsenal over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.0%	60.8%	57.5%	1.06×	1.64
Arsenal under 0.5 in 2nd half	40.0%	39.2%	42.5%	0.92×	2.55
Arsenal over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.4%	22.1%	20.2%	1.10×	4.52

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.6%	77.5%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Liverpool over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.6%	58.8%	58.4%	1.01×	1.70
Liverpool under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.4%	41.2%	41.6%	0.99×	2.42
Liverpool over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.4%	22.5%	24.7%	0.91×	4.44

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (+2.5)	95.0%	92.4%	89.2%	1.04×	1.08
Arsenal (+1.5)	85.5%	89.0%	76.0%	1.17×	1.12
Arsenal (+0.5)	66.8%	69.1%	56.9%	1.21×	1.45
Liverpool (+0.5)	58.3%	56.9%	67.7%	0.84×	1.76
Arsenal (-0.5)	41.7%	43.1%	32.3%	1.34×	2.32
Liverpool (-0.5)	33.2%	30.9%	43.1%	0.72×	3.24
Liverpool (-1.5)	14.5%	11.0%	24.0%	0.46×	9.06
Liverpool (-2.5)	5.0%	7.6%	10.8%	0.71×	13.18

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to concede	73.0%	77.4%	78.4%	0.99×	1.29
Arsenal clean sheet	27.0%	22.6%	21.6%	1.05×	4.42

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal clean sheet in 1st half	62.1%	60.5%	48.6%	1.24×	1.65
Arsenal to concede in 1st half	37.9%	39.5%	51.4%	0.77×	2.54

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to concede in 2nd half	56.6%	59.1%	58.4%	1.01×	1.69
Arsenal clean sheet in 2nd half	43.4%	40.9%	41.6%	0.98×	2.45

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal under 6.5 corners	81.1%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Arsenal over 2.5 corners	75.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Arsenal under 5.5 corners	70.7%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Arsenal over 3.5 corners	59.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Arsenal under 4.5 corners	57.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Arsenal over 4.5 corners	43.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Arsenal under 3.5 corners	41.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Arsenal over 5.5 corners	29.3%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Arsenal under 2.5 corners	24.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Arsenal over 6.5 corners	18.9%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal under 3.5 goals	93.5%	92.8%	94.5%	0.98×	1.08
Arsenal under 2.5 goals	80.9%	81.7%	85.0%	0.96×	1.22
Arsenal over 0.5 goals	77.7%	75.4%	74.9%	1.01×	1.33
Arsenal under 1.5 goals	55.8%	57.7%	60.6%	0.95×	1.73
Arsenal over 1.5 goals	44.2%	42.3%	39.4%	1.07×	2.37
Arsenal under 0.5 goals	22.3%	24.6%	25.1%	0.98×	4.07
Arsenal over 2.5 goals	19.1%	18.3%	15.0%	1.22×	5.47
Arsenal over 3.5 goals	6.5%	7.2%	5.5%	1.32×	13.87

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal under 1.5 in 1st half	88.4%	87.5%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
Arsenal under 0.5 in 1st half	55.9%	59.3%	59.4%	1.00×	1.69
Arsenal over 0.5 in 1st half	44.1%	40.7%	40.6%	1.00×	2.45
Arsenal over 1.5 in 1st half	11.6%	12.5%	10.8%	1.15×	8.01

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal scores more in 2nd half	41.8%	42.2%	40.5%	1.04×	2.37
Arsenal scores equally in both	35.9%	38.8%	37.6%	1.03×	2.58
Arsenal scores more in 1st half	22.3%	21.6%	21.9%	0.98×	4.64

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (away no bet)	56.9%	59.2%	63.5%	0.93×	1.69
Draw (away no bet)	43.1%	40.8%	36.5%	1.12×	2.45

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal even goals	52.5%	52.2%	53.7%	0.97×	1.92
Arsenal odd goals	47.5%	47.8%	46.3%	1.03×	2.09

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.1%	86.3%	80.1%	1.08×	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.9%	13.7%	19.9%	0.69×	7.31

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.9%	65.1%	70.2%	0.93×	1.54
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.1%	34.9%	29.8%	1.17×	2.87

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.0%	59.3%	61.4%	0.97×	1.69
Arsenal to score 2+ in a row	35.3%	37.1%	29.9%	1.24×	2.69
Liverpool to score 2+ in a row	28.7%	25.3%	39.1%	0.65×	3.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.2%	21.7%	26.2%	0.83×	4.60
Arsenal to score 3+ in a row	12.1%	12.2%	10.2%	1.20×	8.20
Liverpool to score 3+ in a row	8.5%	7.4%	16.5%	0.45×	13.58

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool corners (+3.5)	85.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Arsenal corners (+3.5)	81.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Liverpool corners (+2.5)	78.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Arsenal corners (+2.5)	73.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Liverpool corners (+1.5)	69.9%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Arsenal corners (+1.5)	63.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Liverpool corners (-1.5)	37.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Arsenal corners (-1.5)	30.1%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Liverpool corners (-2.5)	27.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Arsenal corners (-2.5)	21.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Liverpool corners (-3.5)	18.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Arsenal corners (-3.5)	14.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.9%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	28.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	24.3%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.7%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	67.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.2%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	35.8%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	32.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	24.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	17.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.8%	11.6%	11.5%	1.01×	8.62
0-1	9.0%	7.3%	6.9%	1.05×	13.76
1-2	8.9%	7.3%	6.9%	1.05×	13.76
1-0	7.9%	7.3%	6.5%	1.12×	13.76
2-1	7.8%	7.3%	9.0%	0.81×	13.76
0-2	6.8%	7.3%	5.5%	1.31×	13.77
0-0	6.0%	7.3%	4.9%	1.49×	13.77
2-2	5.8%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.77
2-0	5.2%	7.3%	6.6%	1.11×	13.77
1-3	4.4%	1.8%	3.2%	0.56×	55.40
0-3	3.4%	1.8%	2.6%	0.70×	55.42
2-3	2.9%	1.8%	2.4%	0.76×	55.44
3-1	3.4%	1.8%	5.5%	0.33×	55.42
3-2	2.5%	1.8%	3.1%	0.59×	55.45
Any other score	2.9%	1.8%	4.2%	0.43×	55.44
0-4	1.3%	1.8%	1.1%	1.63×	55.48
1-4	1.7%	1.8%	1.5%	1.24×	55.47
3-0	2.3%	1.8%	5.0%	0.36×	55.45
3-3	1.3%	1.8%	0.8%	2.35×	55.48
2-4	1.1%	1.8%	0.7%	2.64×	55.48
3-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.5%	3.52×	55.50
4-0	0.7%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.49
4-1	1.1%	1.8%	2.2%	0.81×	55.48
4-2	0.8%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.49
4-3	0.4%	1.8%	0.9%	1.92×	55.50
4-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	5.28×	55.50

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (2nd half DNB)	53.4%	51.8%	47.5%	1.09×	1.93
Liverpool (2nd half DNB)	46.6%	48.2%	52.5%	0.92×	2.07

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal leading at HT (DNB)	56.3%	56.8%	40.4%	1.41×	1.76
Liverpool leading at HT (DNB)	43.7%	43.2%	59.6%	0.72×	2.32

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool or Arsenal (12)	74.9%	72.5%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
Arsenal or draw (X2)	66.8%	71.0%	56.9%	1.25×	1.41
Liverpool or draw (1X)	58.3%	56.1%	67.7%	0.83×	1.78

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal or draw at HT	76.0%	78.8%	63.8%	1.24×	1.27
Liverpool or draw at HT	69.0%	66.3%	75.5%	0.88×	1.51
Liverpool or Arsenal at HT	55.0%	52.2%	60.6%	0.86×	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal or draw (1UP)	66.8%	75.0%	65.2%	1.15×	1.33
Liverpool or draw (1UP)	58.3%	63.9%	74.4%	0.86×	1.57

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal or draw in 2nd half	69.0%	66.3%	63.7%	1.04×	1.51
Liverpool or Arsenal in 2nd half	66.6%	66.2%	69.1%	0.96×	1.51
Liverpool or draw in 2nd half	64.4%	62.6%	67.2%	0.93×	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.4%	59.4%	56.7%	1.05×	1.68
Neither half drawn	36.6%	40.6%	43.3%	0.94×	2.47

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (DNB)	55.7%	62.6%	42.8%	1.46×	1.60
Liverpool (DNB)	44.3%	37.4%	57.2%	0.65×	2.67

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to score first	50.1%	53.4%	43.3%	1.23×	1.87
Liverpool to score first	43.8%	41.5%	52.0%	0.80×	2.41
No goal scored	6.0%	6.2%	4.9%	1.28×	16.08

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	56.7%	56.5%	58.2%	0.97×	1.77
Not both teams to score	43.3%	43.5%	41.8%	1.04×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.9%	42.4%	46.8%	0.91×	2.36
Not both score & under 2.5	34.9%	34.3%	30.0%	1.14×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	11.8%	11.7%	11.5%	1.02×	8.55
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.7%	11.9%	0.73×	11.55

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.3%	81.0%	82.2%	0.99×	1.23
Both teams to score 2+	16.7%	19.0%	17.8%	1.06×	5.27

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.0%	69.3%	68.9%	1.01×	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.0%	30.7%	31.1%	0.98×	3.26

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.0%	54.9%	55.9%	0.98×	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	28.3%	24.8%	24.6%	1.01×	4.04
Both score 1st half only	11.0%	11.5%	13.1%	0.88×	8.66
Both score in both halves	5.7%	6.4%	6.7%	0.96×	15.70

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.3%	83.2%	80.4%	1.04×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.7%	16.8%	19.6%	0.86×	5.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	54.0%	54.7%	61.9%	0.88×	1.83
A half without a goal	46.0%	45.3%	38.1%	1.19×	2.21

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	45.9%	46.6%	0.98×	2.18
4-6 goals	28.5%	27.7%	32.7%	0.85×	3.60
0-1 goals	22.9%	22.7%	18.1%	1.26×	4.40
7+ goals	2.5%	1.9%	2.8%	0.69×	51.80

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to score exactly 1	33.5%	33.1%	35.6%	0.93×	3.02
Arsenal to score exactly 2	25.1%	27.0%	24.5%	1.10×	3.70
Arsenal to score exactly 0	22.3%	24.1%	25.1%	0.96×	4.16
Arsenal to score 3+	19.1%	18.5%	15.0%	1.23×	5.40

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to score exactly 1	35.3%	36.1%	29.6%	1.22×	2.77
Liverpool to score exactly 0	27.0%	27.1%	21.6%	1.25×	3.70
Liverpool to score exactly 2	23.2%	23.0%	26.1%	0.88×	4.36
Liverpool to score 3+	14.5%	13.6%	22.9%	0.59×	7.38

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.0%	47.8%	39.4%	1.21×	2.09
Arsenal leading at HT	31.0%	33.7%	24.5%	1.38×	2.97
Liverpool leading at HT	24.0%	21.2%	36.2%	0.59×	4.73

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal -1: 1	58.3%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Arsenal -1: X	21.3%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Arsenal -1: 2	20.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (0:1)	66.8%	69.9%	56.9%	1.23×	1.43
Draw (0:1)	18.6%	18.3%	19.2%	0.95×	5.47
Liverpool (0:1)	14.5%	10.7%	24.0%	0.45×	9.35

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (0:2)	85.5%	89.5%	76.0%	1.18×	1.12
Draw (0:2)	9.5%	7.2%	13.3%	0.54×	13.89
Liverpool (0:2)	5.0%	7.1%	10.8%	0.66×	14.12

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (0:3)	95.0%	92.7%	89.2%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.6%	2.3%	7.5%	0.31×	43.04
Liverpool (0:3)	1.4%	2.3%	3.3%	0.69×	43.52

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	2.0%	0.60×	81.57
Liverpool (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.4%	0.89×	81.97

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (1:0)	58.3%	57.9%	67.7%	0.85×	1.73
Draw (1:0)	21.3%	22.8%	16.6%	1.38×	4.38
Arsenal (1:0)	20.4%	22.8%	15.8%	1.44×	4.38

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (2:0)	79.6%	78.2%	84.2%	0.93×	1.28
Draw (2:0)	12.4%	12.0%	9.3%	1.29×	8.34
Arsenal (2:0)	7.9%	6.5%	6.6%	0.99×	15.31

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	53.6%	50.9%	49.7%	1.03×	1.96
Halves equal	23.6%	23.2%	24.7%	0.94×	4.32
1st half highest scoring	22.8%	23.1%	25.8%	0.90×	4.32

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to concede	77.7%	77.4%	74.9%	1.03×	1.29
Liverpool clean sheet	22.3%	22.6%	25.1%	0.90×	4.42

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool clean sheet in 1st half	55.9%	59.1%	59.4%	1.00×	1.69
Liverpool to concede in 1st half	44.1%	40.9%	40.6%	1.01×	2.45

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to concede in 2nd half	60.0%	60.7%	57.5%	1.06×	1.65
Liverpool clean sheet in 2nd half	40.0%	39.3%	42.5%	0.92×	2.55

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool over 2.5 corners	79.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Liverpool under 6.5 corners	76.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Liverpool under 5.5 corners	65.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Liverpool over 3.5 corners	64.0%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Liverpool under 4.5 corners	51.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Liverpool over 4.5 corners	48.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Liverpool under 3.5 corners	36.0%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Liverpool over 5.5 corners	34.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Liverpool over 6.5 corners	23.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Liverpool under 2.5 corners	21.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool under 3.5 goals	95.6%	97.7%	91.6%	1.07×	1.02
Liverpool under 2.5 goals	85.5%	87.7%	77.1%	1.14×	1.14
Liverpool over 0.5 goals	73.0%	72.8%	78.4%	0.93×	1.37
Liverpool under 1.5 goals	62.3%	62.8%	51.1%	1.23×	1.59
Liverpool over 1.5 goals	37.7%	37.2%	48.9%	0.76×	2.69
Liverpool under 0.5 goals	27.0%	27.2%	21.6%	1.26×	3.68
Liverpool over 2.5 goals	14.5%	12.3%	22.9%	0.54×	8.14
Liverpool over 3.5 goals	4.4%	2.3%	8.4%	0.27×	43.63

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool under 1.5 in 1st half	91.7%	93.1%	84.5%	1.10×	1.07
Liverpool under 0.5 in 1st half	62.1%	60.4%	48.6%	1.24×	1.66
Liverpool over 0.5 in 1st half	37.9%	39.6%	51.4%	0.77×	2.52
Liverpool over 1.5 in 1st half	8.3%	6.9%	15.5%	0.45×	14.47

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool scores more in 2nd half	41.5%	40.3%	36.3%	1.11×	2.48
Liverpool scores equally in both	38.8%	38.7%	37.5%	1.03×	2.58
Liverpool scores more in 1st half	19.7%	16.8%	26.4%	0.64×	5.97

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal (home no bet)	62.4%	61.2%	56.6%	1.08×	1.64
Draw (home no bet)	37.6%	38.8%	43.4%	0.89×	2.58

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool even goals	53.6%	50.3%	53.8%	0.94×	1.99
Liverpool odd goals	46.4%	49.7%	46.2%	1.08×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.7%	30.6%	27.6%	1.11×	3.27
HT 0-1	20.2%	22.6%	14.8%	1.52×	4.42
HT 1-0	16.5%	18.9%	21.8%	0.87×	5.30
HT 1-1	9.6%	7.7%	10.9%	0.71×	12.97
HT 0-2	5.9%	7.7%	4.5%	1.70×	13.02
HT 2-0	3.9%	2.5%	8.1%	0.31×	39.78
Any other HT score	3.4%	2.5%	5.3%	0.47×	39.81
HT 1-2	2.8%	2.5%	2.8%	0.89×	39.84
HT 2-1	2.3%	2.5%	3.8%	0.67×	39.87
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.5%	1.0%	2.44×	39.96

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal at HT / Arsenal at FT	23.1%	21.4%	16.9%	1.27×	4.67
Liverpool at HT / Liverpool at FT	16.7%	16.8%	26.3%	0.64×	5.96
Draw at HT / Arsenal at FT	16.0%	16.8%	12.0%	1.39×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.0%	16.8%	13.6%	1.24×	5.96
Draw at HT / Liverpool at FT	14.0%	12.0%	14.0%	0.85×	8.37
Arsenal at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.6%	4.8%	1.37×	15.27
Liverpool at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.4%	6.6%	0.52×	29.30
Liverpool at HT / Arsenal at FT	2.6%	3.4%	3.5%	0.97×	29.40
Arsenal at HT / Liverpool at FT	2.5%	3.4%	3.0%	1.14×	29.40

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to score last	50.1%	53.3%	44.9%	1.19×	1.88
Liverpool to score last	43.8%	40.4%	50.3%	0.80×	2.48
No goal scored	6.0%	6.2%	4.9%	1.28×	16.08

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.0%	93.7%	95.1%	0.99×	1.07
Arsenal to lead by 1 at any time	58.3%	59.6%	51.4%	1.16×	1.68
Liverpool to lead by 1 at any time	51.0%	50.9%	62.1%	0.82×	1.96
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.3%	46.1%	50.8%	0.91×	2.17
Arsenal to lead by 2 at any time	27.0%	26.1%	21.2%	1.23×	3.83
Liverpool to lead by 2 at any time	20.6%	19.8%	29.9%	0.66×	5.06
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.8%	17.6%	21.2%	0.83×	5.68
Arsenal to lead by 3 at any time	10.1%	11.3%	8.1%	1.40×	8.84
Liverpool to lead by 3 at any time	6.7%	7.0%	13.1%	0.54×	14.23

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool most corners	48.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Arsenal most corners	40.6%	43.6%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.4%	87.9%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.6%	78.9%	78.2%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.6%	73.7%	79.2%	0.93×	1.36
2-5 goals	70.5%	73.6%	75.3%	0.98×	1.36
1-3 goals	63.0%	62.2%	59.8%	1.04×	1.61
2-4 goals	61.7%	62.2%	64.9%	0.96×	1.61
3-6 goals	50.8%	52.3%	55.8%	0.94×	1.91
3-5 goals	46.7%	48.0%	51.9%	0.92×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.0%	46.6%	1.03×	2.09
1-2 goals	40.7%	43.6%	36.7%	1.19×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.9%	38.9%	41.6%	0.94×	2.57
4-6 goals	28.5%	30.6%	32.7%	0.94×	3.27
4-5 goals	24.4%	24.8%	28.8%	0.86×	4.04
5-6 goals	12.9%	13.5%	14.3%	0.94×	7.41
7+ goals	2.5%	2.0%	2.8%	0.71×	49.79

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal never behind	43.0%	50.6%	37.9%	1.34×	1.98
Liverpool never behind	35.6%	45.5%	48.6%	0.93×	2.20

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.2%	49.0%	1.03×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.8%	51.0%	0.98×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.0%	55.3%	53.4%	1.03×	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	44.0%	44.7%	46.6%	0.96×	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.5%	51.7%	51.8%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.5%	48.3%	48.2%	1.00×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.0%	93.0%	95.1%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.4%	93.0%	93.3%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.6%	81.1%	82.9%	0.98×	1.23
Over 1.5 goals	77.1%	78.1%	81.9%	0.95×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	69.0%	65.3%	64.6%	1.01×	1.53
Over 2.5 goals	53.3%	53.6%	58.5%	0.92×	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	46.7%	46.4%	41.5%	1.12×	2.15
Over 3.5 goals	31.0%	34.7%	35.4%	0.98×	2.89
Under 1.5 goals	22.9%	21.9%	18.1%	1.21×	4.56
Over 4.5 goals	15.4%	18.9%	17.1%	1.11×	5.28
Over 5.5 goals	6.6%	7.0%	6.7%	1.04×	14.27
Under 0.5 goals	6.0%	7.0%	4.9%	1.44×	14.28

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.4%	97.3%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.8%	92.8%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	81.8%	80.5%	79.1%	1.02×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.9%	68.1%	76.4%	0.89×	1.47
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.1%	62.2%	53.9%	1.15×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.9%	37.8%	46.1%	0.82×	2.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.1%	31.9%	23.6%	1.35×	3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	18.2%	19.5%	20.9%	0.93×	5.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.2%	7.2%	7.5%	0.95×	13.94
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.6%	2.8%	2.9%	0.94×	36.37

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.9%	92.2%	87.4%	1.05×	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	71.4%	72.4%	64.1%	1.13×	1.38
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.3%	68.5%	72.4%	0.95×	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.7%	31.5%	27.6%	1.14×	3.18
Over 1.5 in 1st half	28.6%	27.6%	35.9%	0.77×	3.62
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.1%	7.8%	12.6%	0.62×	12.77

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.6%	82.0%	84.7%	0.97×	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.4%	76.3%	75.9%	1.01×	1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.7%	51.8%	45.8%	1.13×	1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.3%	48.2%	54.2%	0.89×	2.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.6%	23.7%	24.1%	0.98×	4.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.4%	18.0%	15.3%	1.18×	5.56

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool not to score in both halves	78.6%	78.0%	68.7%	1.14×	1.28
Arsenal not to score in both halves	73.5%	70.4%	76.8%	0.92×	1.42
Arsenal to score in both halves	26.5%	29.6%	23.2%	1.27×	3.38
Liverpool to score in both halves	21.4%	22.0%	31.3%	0.70×	4.55

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	56.7%	57.7%	58.2%	0.99×	1.73
Only Arsenal scores	20.9%	22.7%	16.8%	1.35×	4.40
Only Liverpool scores	16.3%	16.2%	20.3%	0.80×	6.18
Neither team scores	6.0%	6.6%	4.9%	1.36×	15.16

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.8%	21.6%	23.5%	0.92×	4.63
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	21.6%	23.2%	0.93×	4.63
Exactly 1 goals	16.9%	18.6%	13.3%	1.39×	5.39
Exactly 4 goals	15.6%	18.5%	18.4%	1.01×	5.39
Exactly 5 goals	8.8%	7.6%	10.4%	0.73×	13.11
6 or more goals	6.6%	7.6%	6.7%	1.13×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	6.0%	7.6%	4.9%	1.56×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.7%	37.3%	36.5%	1.02×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	34.7%	32.6%	27.6%	1.18×	3.07
2 goals in 1st half	19.4%	18.4%	23.4%	0.79×	5.44
3+ goals in 1st half	9.1%	7.8%	12.6%	0.62×	12.77

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.3%	47.5%	54.2%	0.88×	2.10
1 goal in 2nd half	30.4%	33.1%	30.6%	1.08×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	17.4%	18.3%	15.3%	1.20×	5.45

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool not to win both halves	92.6%	93.4%	86.5%	1.08×	1.07
Arsenal not to win both halves	89.0%	87.6%	91.2%	0.96×	1.14
Arsenal to win both halves	11.0%	12.4%	8.8%	1.41×	8.08
Liverpool to win both halves	7.4%	6.6%	13.5%	0.49×	15.23

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Arsenal to win either half	55.5%	59.4%	48.5%	1.22×	1.68
Liverpool to win neither half	52.4%	53.8%	41.0%	1.31×	1.86
Liverpool to win either half	47.6%	46.2%	59.0%	0.78×	2.17
Arsenal to win neither half	44.5%	40.6%	51.5%	0.79×	2.46

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool not to win to nil	83.7%	83.5%	79.7%	1.05×	1.20
Arsenal not to win to nil	79.1%	77.3%	83.2%	0.93×	1.29
Arsenal to win to nil	20.9%	22.7%	16.8%	1.35×	4.40
Liverpool to win to nil	16.3%	16.5%	20.3%	0.81×	6.07

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.1%	27.8%	24.7%	1.13×	3.59
Arsenal by 1	21.3%	23.9%	16.6%	1.44×	4.19
Liverpool by 1	18.6%	17.1%	19.2%	0.89×	5.86
Arsenal by 2	12.4%	11.7%	9.3%	1.26×	8.53
Liverpool by 2	9.5%	7.1%	13.3%	0.53×	14.18
Arsenal by 3+	7.9%	7.0%	6.6%	1.07×	14.21
Liverpool by 3+	5.0%	7.0%	10.8%	0.65×	14.28