Liverpool v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 15
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
10 – 11
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.37
Goals − xG
-0.75 – -0.20
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
40.6%
Draw
26.4%
Arsenal win
33.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 16
from 22.9 xG
conceded 6
from 9.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.41–1.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.57–1.18 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 2.75 xGArsenal 2.20 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Arsenal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.28 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 7' |
 Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 14' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 19' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Goal | Andrew Robertson |
| 20' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.80 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 22' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Partey |
| 23' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 28' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ben White |
| 40' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 45' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leandro Trossard |
| 46' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Goal | Leandro Trossard |
| 48' |
Liverpool |
Ibrahima Konaté | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 49' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Odegaard |
| 50' |
Arsenal |
Leandro Trossard | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 52' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 53' |
Arsenal |
Ben White | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 55' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 60' |
Arsenal |
Gabriel Martinelli | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Arsenal |
Bukayo Saka | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikel Merino |
| 69' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bukayo Saka |
| 69' |
Arsenal |
Mikel Merino | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 75' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 88' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Darwin Núñez |
| 90' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 94' |
Arsenal |
Martin Odegaard | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Arsenal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bukayo Saka FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.21 | 0.44 |
| Gabriel Martinelli FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Martin Odegaard MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 0.62 |
| Myles Lewis-Skelly DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| William Saliba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Jakub Kiwior DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| David Raya GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Thomas Partey MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.88 |
| Mikel Merino MC | 82 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.04 | 1.03 |
| Leandro Trossard FW | 81 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.69 | 0.99 |
| Ben White DR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| Riccardo Calafiori Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kieran Tierney Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Robertson DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.58 | 1.55 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.86 | 0.84 |
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 1.45 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.56 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Luis Díaz FW | 82 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.28 | 0.12 | 1.40 |
| Curtis Jones DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 1.21 |
| Conor Bradley DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Cody Gakpo AML | 69 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.02 | 1.87 |
| Alexis Mac Allister Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Darwin Núñez Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Diogo Jota Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Harvey Elliott Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |