Liverpool v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 10
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+0.53 – -0.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
56.7%
Draw
23.4%
Aston Villa win
19.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.88–1.03 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.39–1.15 | 2-1 10% | 69% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 1.47 xGAston Villa 0.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 4' |
 Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Ollie Watkins |
| 14' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 17' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 17' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 18' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 20' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | John McGinn |
| 21' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 22' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Aston Villa |
Evann Guessand | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 32' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 37' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 37' |
Liverpool |
Ibrahima Konaté | 0.18 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 39' |
Aston Villa |
Matthew Cash | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 42' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 45' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Liverpool |
Conor Bradley | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 57' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 62' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amadou Onana |
| 62' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 69' |
Aston Villa |
Donyell Malen | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ross Barkley |
| 78' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 79' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 85' |
Aston Villa |
Jadon Sancho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ian Maatsen |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rogers AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| Amadou Onana DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Pau Torres DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Evann Guessand AMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| John McGinn AML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Ross Barkley Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Donyell Malen Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Tyrone Mings Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Ian Maatsen Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.16 | 0.72 |
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.03 | 0.63 |
| Cody Gakpo AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.39 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.36 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| Conor Bradley DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Florian Wirtz Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |