Liverpool v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 14
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.55 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.41 – -1.69
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
52.2%
Draw
22.9%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
24.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.85–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.29–1.32 | 2-1 9% | 70% | 66% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 2.41 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Joseph Gomez |
| 5' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 6' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 10' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Georginio Rutter | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mats Wieffer |
| 11' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 13' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 14' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joseph Gomez |
| 15' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Carlos Baleba | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ferdi Kadioglu |
| 19' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 29' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 31' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 34' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 40' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yankuba Minteh | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 41' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 42' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 46' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 49' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Diego Gómez | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Mats Wieffer |
| 52' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 53' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 55' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Brajan Gruda | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Diego Gómez |
| 58' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 59' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Goal | Mohamed Salah |
| 59' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 75' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 76' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Mats Wieffer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Georginio Rutter |
| 89' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Ferdi Kadioglu | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kaoru Mitoma |
| 91' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Chiesa |
| 92' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Yasin Ayari | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 99' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Charalampos Kostoulas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Gómez AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.88 | 0.05 | 0.97 |
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.42 | 0.80 |
| Mats Wieffer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.42 | 1.30 |
| Ferdi Kadioglu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 1.06 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Bart Verbruggen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.23 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.29 |
| Georginio Rutter FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.02 | 0.48 | 0.98 |
| Jack Hinshelwood DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Carlos Baleba DMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Brajan Gruda AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Kaoru Mitoma Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.05 | 0.41 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Danny Welbeck Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| James Milner Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Mac Allister AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.45 |
| Curtis Jones DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.47 |
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 81 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Florian Wirtz AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| Mohamed Salah Sub | 65 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.77 | 0.67 | 1.09 |
| Joseph Gomez DR | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| Andrew Robertson Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Alexander Isak Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.53 |