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Liverpool v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 February 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Liverpool
3–1
3.15 – 1.11 xG
Burnley
Shots
25 – 9
On target
10 – 4
Shots in box
18 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
1.19 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.15 – -0.13
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.82.63.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Diogo Jota 30' — goalDara O'Shea 44' — goalLuis Díaz 51' — goalDarwin Núñez 78' — goal
Liverpool 3.15 xGBurnley 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Zeki Amdouni 1' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Zeki Amdouni 9' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 10' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Trent Alexander-Arnold 12' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Curtis Jones 15' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Lorenz Assignon 20' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Diogo Jota 30' — Goal (0.35 xG, From Corner)Andrew Robertson 35' — Blocked Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 37' — Saved Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Wilson Odobert 40' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 42' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 43' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Dara O'Shea 44' — Goal (0.02 xG, From Corner)Luis Díaz 47' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Aaron Ramsey 48' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Diogo Jota 48' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Luis Díaz 51' — Goal (0.53 xG, Open Play)Alexis Mac Allister 58' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Diogo Jota 58' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Diogo Jota 60' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)David Datro Fofana 63' — Saved Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Wilson Odobert 63' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)David Datro Fofana 66' — Missed Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Diogo Jota 70' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jarell Quansah 70' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Wataru Endo 72' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Virgil van Dijk 74' — Saved Shot (0.37 xG, Set Piece)Harvey Elliott 77' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 78' — Goal (0.06 xG, From Corner)Diogo Jota 78' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Darwin Núñez 89' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Alexis Mac Allister 94' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 94' — Saved Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 95' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)
Liverpool attacking right Burnley attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Burnley Zeki Amdouni 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot Dara O'Shea
9' Burnley Zeki Amdouni 0.30 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot David Datro Fofana
10' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Trent Alexander-Arnold
12' Liverpool Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Diogo Jota
15' Liverpool Curtis Jones 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Andrew Robertson
20' Burnley Lorenz Assignon 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot —
30' Liverpool Diogo Jota 0.35 From Corner — Goal Trent Alexander-Arnold
35' Liverpool Andrew Robertson 0.35 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Curtis Jones
37' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Darwin Núñez
40' Burnley Wilson Odobert 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Zeki Amdouni
42' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Curtis Jones
43' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Wataru Endo
44' Burnley Dara O'Shea 0.02 From Corner — Goal Josh Brownhill
47' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.08 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot —
48' Burnley Aaron Ramsey 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sander Berge
48' Liverpool Diogo Jota 0.06 From Corner — Saved Shot Andrew Robertson
51' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.53 Open Play — Goal —
58' Liverpool Alexis Mac Allister 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
58' Liverpool Diogo Jota 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
60' Liverpool Diogo Jota 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
63' Burnley David Datro Fofana 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
63' Burnley Wilson Odobert 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
66' Burnley David Datro Fofana 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Zeki Amdouni
70' Liverpool Diogo Jota 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Luis Díaz
70' Liverpool Jarell Quansah 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Virgil van Dijk
72' Liverpool Wataru Endo 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Darwin Núñez
74' Liverpool Virgil van Dijk 0.37 Set Piece — Saved Shot Andrew Robertson
77' Liverpool Harvey Elliott 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Curtis Jones
78' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.06 From Corner — Goal Harvey Elliott
78' Liverpool Diogo Jota 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot —
89' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.09 From Corner — Missed Shot Andrew Robertson
94' Liverpool Alexis Mac Allister 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Darwin Núñez
94' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Wataru Endo
95' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Andrew Robertson

Players

Burnley

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
David Datro Fofana FW 90 0 0 2 1 0.61 0.30 0.91
Wilson Odobert ML 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.12
Dara O'Shea DC 90 1 0 1 1 0.02 0.07 0.02
Lorenz Assignon DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
Hannes Delcroix DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.60
James Trafford GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Josh Brownhill MC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.05
Sander Berge MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.05
Zeki Amdouni FW 89 0 0 2 2 0.37 0.29 0.60
Aaron Ramsey MR 84 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Maxime Estève DC 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vitinho Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Han-Noah Massengo Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Liverpool

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Diogo Jota FWR 90 1 0 6 1 0.69 0.02 0.32
Darwin Núñez FW 90 1 0 5 3 0.63 0.19 0.78
Virgil van Dijk DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.37 0.06 0.29
Andrew Robertson DL 90 0 0 1 5 0.35 0.63 0.88
Jarell Quansah DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.68
Alexis Mac Allister MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.43
Curtis Jones MC 90 0 0 1 3 0.03 0.43 0.84
Wataru Endo MC 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.38 0.72
Caoimhin Kelleher GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Luis Díaz FWL 85 1 0 5 1 0.91 0.09 1.30
Trent Alexander-Arnold DR 49 0 1 1 2 0.02 0.48 0.29
Harvey Elliott Sub 41 0 1 1 1 0.04 0.06 0.15
Cody Gakpo Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bobby Clark Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
James McConnell Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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