Liverpool v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
32 – 7
On target
9 – 1
Shots in box
20 – 5
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.78 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-2.51 – +0.45
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
66.3%
Draw
21.2%
Burnley win
12.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.21–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.83–0.82 | 2-0 10% | 70% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 3.51 xGBurnley 0.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Burnley attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
 Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 10' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 11' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jeremie Frimpong |
| 13' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 15' |
Burnley |
Florentino Luís | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 24' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 28' |
Liverpool |
Jeremie Frimpong | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 31' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.76 | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — | |
| 32' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 33' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 33' |
Liverpool |
Jeremie Frimpong | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 35' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeremie Frimpong |
| 41' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Curtis Jones |
| 41' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 48' |
Liverpool |
Jeremie Frimpong | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 55' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 57' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 57' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 64' |
Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Florentino Luís |
| 68' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 69' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Virgil van Dijk |
| 71' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 76' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 79' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeremie Frimpong |
| 80' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 80' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.66 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 82' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 82' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeremie Frimpong |
| 92' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hannibal Mejbri |
| 96' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaidon Anthony AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.09 | 0.47 |
| Marcus Edwards AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Lucas Pires DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Florentino Luís MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.25 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bashir Humphreys DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Kyle Walker DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armando Broja FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lyle Foster Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hjalmar Ekdal Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Laurent Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loum Tchaouna Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Hannibal Mejbri Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.99 | 0.04 | 1.20 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0.93 | 0.52 | 1.38 |
| Florian Wirtz AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.19 | 1.35 |
| Jeremie Frimpong DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.50 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.66 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Curtis Jones AMC | 89 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.79 | 1.72 |
| Cody Gakpo AML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.16 | 0.82 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1.17 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.54 |
| Alexis Mac Allister Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| Rio Ngumoha Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrew Robertson Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |