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Liverpool v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 October 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

2–0
2.29 – 0.09 xG
Shots
26 – 6
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 1
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.02
Set-piece xG
1.13 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-0.29 – -0.09
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.31.92.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Mohamed Salah 74' — goalMohamed Salah 96' — goal
Liverpool 2.29 xGEverton 0.09 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Dominic Calvert-Lewin 0' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Diogo Jota 9' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 12' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Trent Alexander-Arnold 22' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Direct Freekick)Amadou Onana 25' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Salah 26' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alexis Mac Allister 33' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Trent Alexander-Arnold 39' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Dwight McNeil 40' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Dominik Szoboszlai 41' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 43' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Trent Alexander-Arnold 43' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Dominik Szoboszlai 44' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dominik Szoboszlai 46' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Salah 51' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Ryan Gravenberch 51' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Trent Alexander-Arnold 52' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)James Garner 54' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Luis Díaz 62' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 64' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Diogo Jota 71' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Salah 74' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Amadou Onana 75' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Dominik Szoboszlai 77' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Diogo Jota 81' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Joseph Gomez 87' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Harvey Elliott 89' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Joseph Gomez 89' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Diogo Jota 91' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Dominik Szoboszlai 95' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Salah 96' — Goal (0.44 xG, Open Play)Beto 98' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)
Liverpool attacking right Everton attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Everton Dominic Calvert-Lewin 0.05 Open Play Saved Shot Dwight McNeil
9' Liverpool Diogo Jota 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Ryan Gravenberch
12' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dominik Szoboszlai
22' Liverpool Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.14 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
25' Everton Amadou Onana 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Dominic Calvert-Lewin
26' Liverpool Mohamed Salah 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
33' Liverpool Alexis Mac Allister 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
39' Liverpool Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
40' Everton Dwight McNeil 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
41' Liverpool Dominik Szoboszlai 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mohamed Salah
43' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.10 From Corner Missed Shot Konstantinos Tsimikas
43' Liverpool Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Alexis Mac Allister
44' Liverpool Dominik Szoboszlai 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Virgil van Dijk
46' Liverpool Dominik Szoboszlai 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Alexis Mac Allister
51' Liverpool Mohamed Salah 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
51' Liverpool Ryan Gravenberch 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Diogo Jota
52' Liverpool Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
54' Everton James Garner 0.01 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
62' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Dominik Szoboszlai
64' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
71' Liverpool Diogo Jota 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mohamed Salah
74' Liverpool Mohamed Salah 0.76 Left Foot Goal
75' Everton Amadou Onana 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Beto
77' Liverpool Dominik Szoboszlai 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Diogo Jota
81' Liverpool Diogo Jota 0.03 From Corner Saved Shot Dominik Szoboszlai
87' Liverpool Joseph Gomez 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Dominik Szoboszlai
89' Liverpool Harvey Elliott 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
89' Liverpool Joseph Gomez 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alexis Mac Allister
91' Liverpool Diogo Jota 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Joseph Gomez
95' Liverpool Dominik Szoboszlai 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Diogo Jota
96' Liverpool Mohamed Salah 0.44 Open Play Left Foot Goal Darwin Núñez
98' Everton Beto 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jarrad Branthwaite

Players

Everton

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
James Garner MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Jordan Pickford GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jarrad Branthwaite DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.01
James Tarkowski DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Vitalii Mykolenko DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Amadou Onana MC 82 0 0 2 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW 63 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.01 0.05
Dwight McNeil ML 48 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.05 0.06
Jack Harrison MR 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Michael Keane Sub 42 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nathan Patterson Sub 42 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ashley Young DR 36 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Beto Sub 27 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.01 0.02
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Youssef Chermiti Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Liverpool

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mohamed Salah FWR 90 2 0 4 3 1.31 0.08 0.82
Diogo Jota FW 90 0 0 4 3 0.23 0.11 0.43
Trent Alexander-Arnold DR 90 0 0 4 0 0.20 0.00 0.23
Dominik Szoboszlai MC 90 0 0 5 4 0.12 0.23 0.38
Alexis Mac Allister MC 90 0 0 1 3 0.01 0.07 0.70
Virgil van Dijk DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.10
Alisson GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Luis Díaz FWL 83 0 0 3 0 0.26 0.00 0.26
Ibrahima Konaté DC 69 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Ryan Gravenberch MC 64 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.06 0.27
Konstantinos Tsimikas DL 64 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.00
Harvey Elliott Sub 26 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.10
Darwin Núñez Sub 26 0 1 1 1 0.01 0.44 0.49
Joel Matip Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.45
Joseph Gomez Sub 7 0 0 2 1 0.06 0.09 0.15
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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