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Liverpool v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 3 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

4–3
2.73 – 1.51 xG
Shots
26 – 10
On target
12 – 5
Shots in box
14 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
1.10 – 0.69
Goals − xG
+1.20 – +1.49
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.43.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Harry Wilson 23' — goalAlexis Mac Allister 38' — goalKenny Tete 47' — goalBobby Reid 79' — goalWataru Endo 86' — goalTrent Alexander-Arnold 87' — goal
Liverpool 2.80 xGFulham 1.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Luis Díaz 2' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Dominik Szoboszlai 7' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Bernd Leno 19' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Set Piece)Trent Alexander-Arnold 19' — Shot On Post (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Harry Wilson 23' — Goal (0.12 xG, Open Play)Joel Matip 28' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Antonee Robinson 32' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Trent Alexander-Arnold 33' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Virgil van Dijk 33' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Virgil van Dijk 33' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Alexis Mac Allister 38' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)João Palhinha 45' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ryan Gravenberch 45' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Kenny Tete 47' — Goal (0.59 xG, From Corner)Raúl Jiménez 47' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Darwin Núñez 50' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)João Palhinha 51' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Dominik Szoboszlai 51' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Dominik Szoboszlai 51' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 52' — Shot On Post (0.38 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 54' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mohamed Salah 54' — Saved Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 57' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Andreas Pereira 58' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Darwin Núñez 60' — Missed Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 68' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Ryan Gravenberch 70' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Antonee Robinson 77' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Bobby Reid 79' — Goal (0.55 xG, Open Play)Luis Díaz 83' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Mohamed Salah 83' — Missed Shot (0.70 xG, From Corner)Trent Alexander-Arnold 83' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Wataru Endo 83' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Wataru Endo 86' — Goal (0.05 xG, Open Play)Cody Gakpo 87' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Trent Alexander-Arnold 87' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Liverpool attacking right Fulham attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
7' Liverpool Dominik Szoboszlai 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Ryan Gravenberch
19' Fulham Bernd Leno 0.00 Set Piece Own Goal
19' Liverpool Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Shot On Post
23' Fulham Harry Wilson 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Goal Antonee Robinson
28' Liverpool Joel Matip 0.06 Set Piece Missed Shot Konstantinos Tsimikas
32' Fulham Antonee Robinson 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
33' Liverpool Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dominik Szoboszlai
33' Liverpool Virgil van Dijk 0.09 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
33' Liverpool Virgil van Dijk 0.10 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
38' Liverpool Alexis Mac Allister 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Goal
45' Fulham João Palhinha 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Andreas Pereira
45' Liverpool Ryan Gravenberch 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
47' Fulham Kenny Tete 0.59 From Corner Right Foot Goal
47' Fulham Raúl Jiménez 0.04 From Corner Blocked Shot Andreas Pereira
50' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Trent Alexander-Arnold
51' Fulham João Palhinha 0.06 From Corner Saved Shot Andreas Pereira
51' Liverpool Dominik Szoboszlai 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Mohamed Salah
51' Liverpool Dominik Szoboszlai 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Luis Díaz
52' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Mohamed Salah
54' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Konstantinos Tsimikas
54' Liverpool Mohamed Salah 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Darwin Núñez
57' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mohamed Salah
58' Fulham Andreas Pereira 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Alex Iwobi
60' Liverpool Darwin Núñez 0.32 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Mohamed Salah
68' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.07 Open Play Missed Shot
70' Liverpool Ryan Gravenberch 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Luis Díaz
77' Fulham Antonee Robinson 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Willian
79' Fulham Bobby Reid 0.55 Open Play Goal Tom Cairney
83' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.09 From Corner Saved Shot Trent Alexander-Arnold
83' Liverpool Mohamed Salah 0.70 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
83' Liverpool Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Konstantinos Tsimikas
83' Liverpool Wataru Endo 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
86' Liverpool Wataru Endo 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Goal Mohamed Salah
87' Liverpool Cody Gakpo 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Wataru Endo
87' Liverpool Trent Alexander-Arnold 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Goal Konstantinos Tsimikas

Players

Fulham

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
João Palhinha DMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.07
Antonee Robinson DL 90 0 1 2 1 0.08 0.12 0.27
Raúl Jiménez FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.05
Tim Ream DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bernd Leno GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Calvin Bassey DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Harrison Reed DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.65
Kenny Tete DR 86 1 0 1 0 0.59 0.00 0.00
Alex Iwobi AML 86 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.19
Harry Wilson AMR 73 1 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.12
Andreas Pereira AMC 73 0 0 1 3 0.04 0.14 0.19
Willian Sub 17 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.61
Tom Cairney Sub 17 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.55 0.61
Bobby Reid Sub 4 1 0 1 0 0.55 0.00 0.61
Timothy Castagne Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Vinicius Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Liverpool

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mohamed Salah FWR 90 0 1 2 5 0.99 0.85 1.12
Darwin Núñez FW 90 0 0 3 1 0.82 0.29 1.16
Luis Díaz FWL 90 0 0 5 2 0.31 0.03 0.25
Virgil van Dijk DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.18 0.00 0.56
Trent Alexander-Arnold DR 90 1 0 4 2 0.15 0.21 1.03
Ryan Gravenberch MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.06 0.18
Caoimhin Kelleher GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Konstantinos Tsimikas DL 90 0 1 0 4 0.00 0.15 0.34
Joel Matip DC 80 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.61
Dominik Szoboszlai MC 76 0 0 3 1 0.09 0.02 1.09
Alexis Mac Allister MC 76 1 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.39
Cody Gakpo Sub 14 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.06
Joseph Gomez Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Ibrahima Konaté Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Wataru Endo Sub 1 1 0 2 1 0.11 0.02 0.17
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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