Liverpool v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Liverpool

15:00 UTC

Manchester United

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 21 Oct, 11:05 · 748h before kick-off

Liverpool win

45.3%

model 43.2%

Draw

23.8%

model 23.6%

Manchester United win

30.9%

model 33.2%

452431

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.7%
2-1 9.0%
1-2 7.7%
1-0 7.4%
2-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.2%	Under 2.5	39.8%
BTTS yes	62.0%	BTTS no	38.0%
Liverpool 1+	81.3%	Liverpool 2+	49.9%
Manchester United 1+	76.4%	Manchester United 2+	42.3%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.44. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

89/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Liverpool scores more in 2nd half

Home highest scoring half · usually 36%

51.2% fair odds 1.96

moderate signal · 432 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Liverpool not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 80%

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Liverpool carry the stronger rating, 1711 Elo against 1686.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Liverpool have an estimated 45.3% win probability, against 30.9% for Manchester United and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.67 for Liverpool and 1.44 for Manchester United.

Why Liverpool

Liverpool carry the stronger rating, 1711 Elo against 1686. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.67 to 1.44. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Manchester United can win

Away from home Manchester United average 1.64 xG a match.

Key players

Liverpool's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mohamed Salah (0.51), Alexander Isak (0.39), Dominik Szoboszlai (0.37). Manchester United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Bruno Fernandes (0.67), Bryan Mbeumo (0.57), Benjamin Sesko (0.32).

Availability

1 of Liverpool's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Liverpool's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Manchester United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Manchester United's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Liverpool: 50% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.32 xG a match from set pieces. Manchester United: 51% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.17 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Liverpool are the model's most likely outcome at 45.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.7%. Confidence 89/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Liverpool are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DLDDDWDWLW last 10 scored 13 from 15.7 xG conceded 14 from 14.0 xG

Manchester United are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWWLWDLDDD last 10 scored 16 from 19.7 xG conceded 12 from 14.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	432433	1.67–1.44	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	442433	1.90–1.64	1-1 10%	69%	69%
dc-xg	492228	1.88–1.38	1-1 10%	63%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to win	44.2%	43.0%	43.0%	1.00×	2.33
Manchester United to win	33.8%	30.4%	32.3%	0.94×	3.29
Draw	22.0%	24.4%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool & both teams score	27.7%	25.2%	22.9%	1.10×	3.97
Manchester United & both teams score	21.7%	21.8%	15.3%	1.42×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.57
Liverpool & not both score	16.5%	18.0%	20.1%	0.89×	5.57
Manchester United & not both score	12.1%	13.3%	17.1%	0.78×	7.54
Draw & not both score	2.9%	4.9%	5.0%	0.98×	20.61

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool & over 1.5	38.7%	34.9%	36.6%	0.95×	2.87
Liverpool & over 2.5	33.4%	30.8%	30.3%	1.02×	3.25
Manchester United & over 1.5	29.1%	26.1%	25.3%	1.03×	3.84
Manchester United & over 2.5	25.1%	26.1%	19.8%	1.32×	3.84
Liverpool & under 3.5	22.6%	21.6%	26.6%	0.81×	4.63
Liverpool & over 3.5	21.5%	21.6%	16.5%	1.31×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Manchester United & under 3.5	18.3%	18.0%	21.9%	0.82×	5.56
Manchester United & over 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	10.6%	1.70×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	12.0%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	12.0%	12.8%	16.3%	0.79×	7.79
Liverpool & under 2.5	10.7%	12.8%	12.8%	1.00×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	10.0%	12.8%	8.6%	1.50×	7.79
Draw & over 3.5	10.0%	12.8%	8.6%	1.50×	7.79
Manchester United & under 2.5	8.7%	7.9%	12.6%	0.63×	12.63
Liverpool & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Manchester United & under 1.5	4.8%	4.8%	7.1%	0.68×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	2.9%	4.8%	5.0%	0.97×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (1UP)	63.4%	62.9%	62.0%	1.01×	1.59
Manchester United (1UP)	54.9%	52.7%	51.5%	1.02×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (2UP)	44.2%	47.2%	44.7%	1.06×	2.12
Manchester United (2UP)	33.8%	30.6%	34.5%	0.89×	3.27

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to win 2nd half	37.6%	36.1%	36.2%	1.00×	2.77
Manchester United to win 2nd half	34.5%	34.4%	32.8%	1.05×	2.91
2nd half drawn	27.9%	25.8%	31.1%	0.83×	3.88

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.4%	70.2%	57.8%	1.21×	1.42
Manchester United under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.0%	70.2%	79.9%	0.88×	1.43
Manchester United over 1.5 in 2nd half	32.0%	29.8%	20.1%	1.48×	3.36
Manchester United under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.6%	29.8%	42.2%	0.71×	3.36

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.3%	73.8%	58.3%	1.27×	1.35
Liverpool under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.7%	70.6%	75.2%	0.94×	1.42
Liverpool over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.3%	29.4%	24.8%	1.18×	3.40
Liverpool under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.7%	26.2%	41.7%	0.63×	3.82

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (+2.5)	89.0%	88.5%	89.1%	0.99×	1.13
Manchester United (+1.5)	75.7%	78.5%	76.0%	1.03×	1.27
Liverpool (+0.5)	66.2%	68.7%	67.7%	1.01×	1.46
Manchester United (+0.5)	55.8%	57.0%	57.0%	1.00×	1.75
Liverpool (-0.5)	44.2%	43.0%	43.0%	1.00×	2.33
Manchester United (-0.5)	33.8%	31.3%	32.3%	0.97×	3.19
Liverpool (-1.5)	24.3%	21.5%	24.0%	0.90×	4.65
Liverpool (-2.5)	11.0%	11.5%	10.9%	1.06×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to concede	85.0%	81.6%	78.1%	1.05×	1.23
Manchester United clean sheet	15.0%	18.4%	21.9%	0.84×	5.43

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United clean sheet in 1st half	50.7%	50.5%	48.8%	1.03×	1.98
Manchester United to concede in 1st half	49.3%	49.5%	51.2%	0.97×	2.02

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to concede in 2nd half	70.3%	70.6%	58.3%	1.21×	1.42
Manchester United clean sheet in 2nd half	29.7%	29.4%	41.7%	0.71×	3.40

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 6.5 corners	85.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Manchester United under 5.5 corners	76.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Manchester United over 2.5 corners	70.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Manchester United under 4.5 corners	63.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Manchester United over 3.5 corners	53.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Manchester United under 3.5 corners	47.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Manchester United over 4.5 corners	36.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Manchester United under 2.5 corners	29.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Manchester United over 5.5 corners	23.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Manchester United over 6.5 corners	14.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 3.5 goals	91.5%	92.3%	94.6%	0.98×	1.08
Manchester United over 0.5 goals	80.6%	81.4%	75.0%	1.09×	1.23
Manchester United under 2.5 goals	77.3%	76.3%	85.1%	0.90×	1.31
Manchester United under 1.5 goals	51.2%	53.5%	60.6%	0.88×	1.87
Manchester United over 1.5 goals	48.8%	46.5%	39.4%	1.18×	2.15
Manchester United over 2.5 goals	22.7%	23.7%	14.9%	1.59×	4.21
Manchester United under 0.5 goals	19.4%	18.6%	25.0%	0.74×	5.39
Manchester United over 3.5 goals	8.5%	7.7%	5.4%	1.43×	13.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United under 1.5 in 1st half	91.3%	93.9%	89.3%	1.05×	1.07
Manchester United under 0.5 in 1st half	61.3%	63.5%	59.7%	1.06×	1.58
Manchester United over 0.5 in 1st half	38.7%	36.5%	40.3%	0.91×	2.74
Manchester United over 1.5 in 1st half	8.7%	6.1%	10.7%	0.57×	16.27

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United scores more in 2nd half	52.4%	51.0%	40.8%	1.25×	1.96
Manchester United scores equally in both	31.9%	33.6%	37.5%	0.90×	2.97
Manchester United scores more in 1st half	15.7%	17.8%	21.7%	0.82×	5.62

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (away no bet)	66.8%	66.4%	63.5%	1.05×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	33.2%	33.6%	36.5%	0.92×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United even goals	51.9%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
Manchester United odd goals	48.1%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.7%	81.3%	80.0%	1.02×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.3%	18.7%	20.0%	0.93×	5.36

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	78.7%	72.5%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	21.3%	27.5%	29.9%	0.92×	3.64

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	68.9%	62.5%	61.6%	1.01×	1.60
Liverpool to score 2+ in a row	44.8%	38.9%	39.2%	0.99×	2.57
Manchester United to score 2+ in a row	36.4%	36.6%	29.7%	1.23×	2.73
Either team to score 3+ in a row	29.0%	25.2%	26.1%	0.97×	3.96
Liverpool to score 3+ in a row	17.6%	16.3%	16.4%	0.99×	6.15
Manchester United to score 3+ in a row	12.2%	12.0%	10.1%	1.20×	8.31

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool corners (+3.5)	93.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Liverpool corners (+2.5)	89.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Liverpool corners (+1.5)	83.3%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Manchester United corners (+3.5)	63.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Liverpool corners (-1.5)	56.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Manchester United corners (+2.5)	54.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Liverpool corners (-2.5)	46.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Manchester United corners (+1.5)	43.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Liverpool corners (-3.5)	36.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Manchester United corners (-1.5)	16.7%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Manchester United corners (-2.5)	10.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Manchester United corners (-3.5)	6.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	36.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	34.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	73.7%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	73.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	64.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	36.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	34.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	26.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	26.3%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.1%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.50
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.50
1-2	7.4%	7.4%	6.8%	1.08×	13.50
2-2	7.0%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.51
Any other score	6.8%	7.4%	4.4%	1.69×	13.51
1-0	5.5%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
2-0	5.2%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.51
3-1	5.4%	7.4%	5.4%	1.36×	13.51
0-1	4.8%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.29
0-0	2.9%	1.7%	5.0%	0.35×	58.30
0-2	3.9%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
0-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.31
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.60×	58.31
1-3	4.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
1-4	1.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.22×	58.31
2-3	3.9%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.30
2-4	1.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.60×	58.31
3-0	3.3%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.30
3-2	4.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.29
3-3	2.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.31×	58.31
3-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.5%	3.46×	58.31
4-0	1.6%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-1	2.6%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.30
4-2	2.1%	1.7%	1.3%	1.30×	58.31
4-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.31
4-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.20×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (2nd half DNB)	52.1%	52.8%	52.5%	1.01×	1.90
Manchester United (2nd half DNB)	47.9%	47.2%	47.5%	0.99×	2.12

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool leading at HT (DNB)	60.6%	65.4%	59.8%	1.09×	1.53
Manchester United leading at HT (DNB)	39.4%	34.6%	40.2%	0.86×	2.89

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool or Manchester United (12)	78.0%	75.6%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Liverpool or draw (1X)	66.2%	69.6%	67.7%	1.03×	1.44
Manchester United or draw (X2)	55.8%	57.0%	57.0%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool or draw at HT	77.3%	79.1%	75.7%	1.04×	1.27
Manchester United or draw at HT	65.0%	66.6%	63.9%	1.04×	1.50
Liverpool or Manchester United at HT	57.7%	57.1%	60.2%	0.95×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool or draw (1UP)	66.2%	76.1%	74.3%	1.03×	1.31
Manchester United or draw (1UP)	55.8%	62.9%	65.3%	0.96×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool or Manchester United in 2nd half	72.1%	74.2%	68.9%	1.08×	1.35
Liverpool or draw in 2nd half	65.5%	65.6%	67.2%	0.98×	1.52
Manchester United or draw in 2nd half	62.4%	63.9%	63.8%	1.00×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.4%	58.5%	57.1%	1.02×	1.71
Neither half drawn	41.6%	41.5%	42.9%	0.97×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (DNB)	56.6%	58.0%	57.1%	1.02×	1.72
Manchester United (DNB)	43.4%	42.0%	42.9%	0.98×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to score first	52.0%	53.3%	51.8%	1.03×	1.88
Manchester United to score first	45.1%	45.9%	43.3%	1.06×	2.18
No goal scored	2.9%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.47

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	68.5%	58.5%	58.0%	1.01×	1.71
Not both teams to score	31.5%	41.5%	42.0%	0.99×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	59.5%	47.6%	46.7%	1.02×	2.10
Not both score & under 2.5	22.3%	27.8%	30.2%	0.92×	3.60
Both score & under 2.5	9.1%	8.3%	11.4%	0.73×	12.06
Not both score & over 2.5	9.1%	8.3%	11.9%	0.70×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	72.4%	80.5%	82.1%	0.98×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	27.6%	19.5%	17.9%	1.09×	5.13

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	51.9%	51.8%	68.6%	0.75×	1.93
Both teams to score in 2nd half	48.1%	48.2%	31.4%	1.53×	2.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	42.0%	50.3%	55.9%	0.90×	1.99
Both score 2nd half only	39.0%	44.7%	24.7%	1.81×	2.24
Both score 1st half only	9.9%	6.9%	12.8%	0.54×	14.57
Both score in both halves	9.2%	6.8%	6.8%	1.00×	14.60

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.9%	83.2%	80.4%	1.03×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	19.1%	16.8%	19.6%	0.86×	5.94

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.5%	59.7%	61.6%	0.97×	1.67
A half without a goal	37.5%	40.3%	38.4%	1.05×	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	40.3%	42.1%	32.8%	1.29×	2.38
2-3 goals	39.7%	35.2%	46.3%	0.76×	2.85
0-1 goals	13.2%	16.9%	18.3%	0.92×	5.91
7+ goals	6.8%	7.6%	2.8%	2.71×	13.14

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United to score exactly 1	31.8%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
Manchester United to score exactly 2	26.1%	27.4%	24.5%	1.12×	3.66
Manchester United to score 3+	22.7%	22.3%	14.9%	1.49×	4.48
Manchester United to score exactly 0	19.4%	19.6%	25.0%	0.78×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to score 3+	29.5%	26.6%	22.9%	1.16×	3.77
Liverpool to score exactly 1	28.5%	26.6%	29.2%	0.91×	3.77
Liverpool to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	26.1%	1.02×	3.77
Liverpool to score exactly 0	15.0%	18.7%	21.9%	0.85×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.3%	42.9%	39.8%	1.08×	2.33
Liverpool leading at HT	35.0%	33.4%	36.1%	0.93×	2.99
Manchester United leading at HT	22.7%	20.9%	24.3%	0.86×	4.78

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool -1: 2	55.8%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Liverpool -1: 1	24.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Liverpool -1: X	19.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.70

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:1)	55.8%	55.8%	57.0%	0.98×	1.79
Liverpool (0:1)	24.3%	24.2%	24.0%	1.01×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	19.9%	17.8%	19.1%	0.94×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:2)	75.7%	79.3%	76.0%	1.04×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.3%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.09
Liverpool (0:2)	11.0%	11.0%	10.9%	1.01×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:3)	89.0%	90.7%	89.1%	1.02×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	6.8%	5.8%	7.6%	0.77×	17.22
Liverpool (0:3)	4.2%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	42.01

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (0:4)	95.8%	98.1%	96.6%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.8%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	81.79
Liverpool (0:4)	1.3%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	81.95

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (1:0)	66.2%	70.1%	67.7%	1.04×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	17.2%	17.1%	16.7%	1.02×	5.85
Manchester United (1:0)	16.6%	17.1%	15.7%	1.09×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool (2:0)	83.4%	84.6%	84.3%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.0%	6.4%	9.2%	0.69×	15.66
Manchester United (2:0)	6.6%	6.4%	6.5%	0.98×	15.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	64.0%	64.0%	49.6%	1.29×	1.56
Halves equal	18.6%	19.6%	24.7%	0.79×	5.10
1st half highest scoring	17.4%	19.3%	25.8%	0.75×	5.19

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to concede	80.6%	80.8%	75.0%	1.08×	1.24
Liverpool clean sheet	19.4%	19.2%	25.0%	0.77×	5.21

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool clean sheet in 1st half	61.3%	63.4%	59.7%	1.06×	1.58
Liverpool to concede in 1st half	38.7%	36.6%	40.3%	0.91×	2.74

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to concede in 2nd half	68.4%	67.4%	57.8%	1.16×	1.49
Liverpool clean sheet in 2nd half	31.6%	32.6%	42.2%	0.77×	3.06

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool over 2.5 corners	89.5%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Liverpool over 3.5 corners	79.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Liverpool over 4.5 corners	67.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Liverpool under 6.5 corners	57.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Liverpool over 5.5 corners	54.6%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Liverpool under 5.5 corners	45.4%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Liverpool over 6.5 corners	42.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Liverpool under 4.5 corners	32.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Liverpool under 3.5 corners	20.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Liverpool under 2.5 corners	10.5%	13.8%	—	—	7.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool under 3.5 goals	87.6%	87.3%	91.5%	0.95×	1.15
Liverpool over 0.5 goals	85.0%	82.2%	78.1%	1.05×	1.22
Liverpool under 2.5 goals	70.5%	74.2%	77.1%	0.96×	1.35
Liverpool over 1.5 goals	56.5%	58.6%	48.9%	1.20×	1.71
Liverpool under 1.5 goals	43.5%	41.4%	51.1%	0.81×	2.42
Liverpool over 2.5 goals	29.5%	25.8%	22.9%	1.12×	3.88
Liverpool under 0.5 goals	15.0%	17.8%	21.9%	0.81×	5.63
Liverpool over 3.5 goals	12.4%	12.7%	8.5%	1.50×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool under 1.5 in 1st half	85.1%	90.1%	84.4%	1.07×	1.11
Liverpool under 0.5 in 1st half	50.7%	50.3%	48.8%	1.03×	1.99
Liverpool over 0.5 in 1st half	49.3%	49.7%	51.2%	0.97×	2.01
Liverpool over 1.5 in 1st half	14.9%	9.9%	15.6%	0.64×	10.09

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool scores more in 2nd half	49.0%	47.5%	36.1%	1.32×	2.10
Liverpool scores equally in both	30.3%	32.9%	37.7%	0.87×	3.04
Liverpool scores more in 1st half	20.7%	21.2%	26.3%	0.80×	4.73

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United (home no bet)	60.6%	59.9%	56.6%	1.06×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	39.4%	40.1%	43.4%	0.92×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool even goals	51.1%	50.7%	54.0%	0.94×	1.97
Liverpool odd goals	48.9%	49.3%	46.0%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.1%	33.3%	28.1%	1.18×	3.00
HT 1-0	21.1%	24.4%	21.5%	1.13×	4.10
HT 0-1	15.2%	18.5%	14.8%	1.26×	5.40
HT 1-1	10.3%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.09
HT 2-0	7.2%	6.9%	8.0%	0.86×	14.49
Any other HT score	4.5%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	41.99
HT 0-2	3.7%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.04
HT 2-1	3.5%	2.4%	3.7%	0.64×	42.05
HT 1-2	2.5%	2.4%	2.9%	0.82×	42.11
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.4%	1.0%	2.39×	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool at HT / Liverpool at FT	25.2%	27.1%	26.4%	1.03×	3.69
Draw at HT / Liverpool at FT	15.9%	16.7%	13.9%	1.20×	5.99
Manchester United at HT / Manchester United at FT	15.3%	16.7%	16.7%	1.00×	5.99
Draw at HT / Manchester United at FT	14.6%	12.7%	12.3%	1.03×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.8%	12.6%	13.8%	0.92×	7.91
Liverpool at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	6.4%	0.94×	16.66
Manchester United at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.61
Liverpool at HT / Manchester United at FT	3.9%	3.5%	3.5%	1.01×	28.62
Manchester United at HT / Liverpool at FT	3.1%	3.5%	2.9%	1.21×	28.65

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to score last	52.0%	52.1%	50.1%	1.04×	1.92
Manchester United to score last	45.1%	46.4%	45.1%	1.03×	2.16
No goal scored	2.9%	4.3%	5.0%	0.86×	23.47

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.1%	95.7%	95.1%	1.01×	1.05
Liverpool to lead by 1 at any time	63.4%	61.4%	62.0%	0.99×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	57.4%	54.9%	50.6%	1.09×	1.82
Manchester United to lead by 1 at any time	54.9%	50.9%	51.5%	0.99×	1.96
Liverpool to lead by 2 at any time	33.2%	29.9%	29.9%	1.00×	3.35
Manchester United to lead by 2 at any time	24.9%	19.7%	21.0%	0.94×	5.08
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.8%	19.7%	21.2%	0.93×	5.08
Liverpool to lead by 3 at any time	14.4%	10.5%	13.2%	0.80×	9.53
Manchester United to lead by 3 at any time	9.4%	6.7%	8.1%	0.83×	14.82

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool most corners	66.6%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Manchester United most corners	24.3%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	9.1%	8.4%	—	—	11.97

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	82.4%	83.4%	88.4%	0.94×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.0%	83.4%	79.0%	1.06×	1.20
2-5 goals	72.1%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	68.9%	68.8%	77.9%	0.88×	1.45
3-6 goals	61.8%	63.3%	55.8%	1.14×	1.58
2-4 goals	58.7%	59.1%	64.5%	0.92×	1.69
3-5 goals	53.9%	53.2%	51.9%	1.02×	1.88
1-3 goals	50.0%	48.5%	59.7%	0.81×	2.06
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	41.3%	1.05×	2.30
4-6 goals	40.3%	43.6%	32.8%	1.33×	2.30
2-3 goals	39.7%	39.2%	46.3%	0.85×	2.55
4-5 goals	32.4%	35.2%	28.9%	1.22×	2.84
1-2 goals	28.5%	30.2%	36.6%	0.83×	3.31
5-6 goals	21.4%	24.5%	14.5%	1.69×	4.09
7+ goals	6.8%	8.9%	2.8%	3.16×	11.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool never behind	42.2%	48.5%	48.5%	1.00×	2.06
Manchester United never behind	33.7%	36.3%	38.0%	0.96×	2.76

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.9%	49.2%	1.04×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.8%	51.7%	53.5%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.2%	48.3%	46.5%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.4%	51.9%	51.9%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.6%	48.1%	48.1%	1.00×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.1%	95.4%	95.1%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	86.8%	87.6%	81.7%	1.07×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	85.3%	87.6%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	71.9%	72.5%	82.8%	0.88×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	68.6%	66.3%	58.5%	1.13×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	52.9%	52.5%	64.5%	0.81×	1.90
Over 3.5 goals	47.1%	47.5%	35.5%	1.34×	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	31.4%	33.7%	41.5%	0.81×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	28.1%	27.5%	17.2%	1.60×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	14.7%	12.4%	6.7%	1.86×	8.06
Under 1.5 goals	13.2%	12.4%	18.3%	0.68×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	2.9%	4.6%	5.0%	0.92×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	92.6%	92.4%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	83.9%	81.1%	76.2%	1.06×	1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	83.0%	81.1%	92.5%	0.88×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	65.3%	67.4%	78.9%	0.85×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.0%	61.9%	46.1%	1.34×	1.62
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	40.0%	38.1%	53.9%	0.71×	2.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	34.7%	32.6%	21.1%	1.54×	3.07
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	17.0%	18.9%	7.5%	2.53×	5.29
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	16.1%	18.9%	23.8%	0.79×	5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	7.4%	7.6%	2.9%	2.60×	13.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.6%	89.2%	87.2%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.9%	68.5%	71.9%	0.95×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.4%	68.4%	64.3%	1.06×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.6%	31.6%	35.7%	0.88×	3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.1%	31.5%	28.1%	1.12×	3.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.4%	10.8%	12.8%	0.84×	9.28

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	90.6%	89.5%	84.7%	1.06×	1.12
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	68.5%	68.7%	54.4%	1.26×	1.46
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	57.8%	54.9%	75.7%	0.73×	1.82
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	42.2%	45.1%	24.3%	1.86×	2.22
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	31.5%	31.3%	45.6%	0.69×	3.20
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	9.4%	10.5%	15.3%	0.69×	9.53

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United not to score in both halves	73.5%	74.0%	76.9%	0.96×	1.35
Liverpool not to score in both halves	65.3%	69.7%	68.6%	1.02×	1.43
Liverpool to score in both halves	34.7%	30.3%	31.4%	0.96×	3.30
Manchester United to score in both halves	26.5%	26.0%	23.1%	1.13×	3.84

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	68.5%	60.0%	58.0%	1.03×	1.67
Only Liverpool scores	16.5%	16.0%	20.1%	0.80×	6.24
Only Manchester United scores	12.1%	11.0%	17.1%	0.65×	9.06
Neither team scores	2.9%	4.6%	5.0%	0.93×	21.72

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	19.0%	17.5%	18.3%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 2 goals	18.2%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
6 or more goals	14.7%	12.1%	6.7%	1.82×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	13.4%	12.1%	10.6%	1.14×	8.24
Exactly 1 goals	10.3%	12.1%	13.4%	0.90×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	2.9%	4.5%	5.0%	0.90×	22.40

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.4%	36.2%	1.03×	2.67
No goals in 1st half	31.1%	35.8%	28.1%	1.27×	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	21.2%	21.5%	23.0%	0.93×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	11.4%	10.7%	12.8%	0.84×	9.35

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	68.5%	61.9%	54.4%	1.14×	1.62
1 goal in 2nd half	22.2%	22.8%	30.4%	0.75×	4.40
No goals in 2nd half	9.4%	10.7%	15.3%	0.70×	9.39

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United not to win both halves	92.1%	94.1%	91.3%	1.03×	1.06
Liverpool not to win both halves	86.9%	87.9%	86.4%	1.02×	1.14
Liverpool to win both halves	13.1%	12.1%	13.6%	0.89×	8.23
Manchester United to win both halves	7.9%	5.9%	8.7%	0.68×	16.95

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Liverpool to win either half	59.4%	59.1%	58.7%	1.01×	1.69
Manchester United to win neither half	50.6%	54.2%	51.7%	1.05×	1.84
Manchester United to win either half	49.4%	45.8%	48.4%	0.95×	2.19
Liverpool to win neither half	40.6%	40.9%	41.3%	0.99×	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Manchester United not to win to nil	87.9%	88.1%	82.9%	1.06×	1.14
Liverpool not to win to nil	83.5%	83.1%	79.9%	1.04×	1.20
Liverpool to win to nil	16.5%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.92
Manchester United to win to nil	12.1%	11.9%	17.1%	0.70×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.0%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Liverpool by 1	19.9%	17.1%	19.1%	0.89×	5.86
Manchester United by 1	17.2%	17.0%	16.7%	1.02×	5.87
Liverpool by 2	13.3%	11.8%	13.2%	0.89×	8.51
Liverpool by 3+	11.0%	11.8%	10.9%	1.08×	8.51
Manchester United by 2	10.0%	7.2%	9.2%	0.78×	13.90
Manchester United by 3+	6.6%	7.2%	6.5%	1.10×	13.91