Liverpool v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 15
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
16 – 9
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.44
Goals − xG
-1.79 – +1.79
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
62.1%
Draw
20.8%
Nottingham Forest win
17.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.15–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.27–0.90 | 2-0 11% | 61% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 1.79 xGNottingham Forest 1.21 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 11' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 15' |
Liverpool |
Milos Kerkez | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 23' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 25' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 29' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 29' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 32' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 41' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 44' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 45' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolò Savona | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Neco Williams |
| 47' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 52' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 59' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Virgil van Dijk |
| 62' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 63' |
Liverpool |
Alexander Isak | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 63' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' | Nottingham Forest | Elliot Anderson | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 77' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 77' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 77' | Nottingham Forest | Omari Hutchinson | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Murillo |
| 81' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rio Ngumoha |
| 81' |
Liverpool |
Federico Chiesa | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 83' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 83' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 86' | Nottingham Forest | Omari Hutchinson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' | Nottingham Forest | Omari Hutchinson | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 92' |
Liverpool |
Federico Chiesa | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 94' |
Liverpool |
Federico Chiesa | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Savona DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.46 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Ndoye AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.49 |
| Igor Jesus FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nicolás Domínguez AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Omari Hutchinson Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Mac Allister MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.01 | 1.00 |
| Cody Gakpo FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.06 | 0.47 |
| Mohamed Salah FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.36 | 0.74 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.04 | 0.36 | 0.89 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Ryan Gravenberch MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Curtis Jones MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.27 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.30 |
| Alexander Isak FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Hugo Ekitike Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Andrew Robertson Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Rio Ngumoha Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.21 |