Liverpool v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 August 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 12
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 11
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.87
Goals − xG
+0.72 – -0.88
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
50.3%
Draw
26.5%
Nottingham Forest win
23.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.70–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.17–1.12 | 2-1 10% | 64% | 60% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 1.28 xGNottingham Forest 2.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.84 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 15' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 16' | Nottingham Forest | Xaver Schlager | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | James McAtee |
| 21' |
 Liverpool |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 23' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 23' | Nottingham Forest | Xaver Schlager | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeremie Frimpong |
| 38' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 44' |
Liverpool |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexander Isak |
| 46' |
Liverpool |
Alexander Isak | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 47' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Víctor Muñoz |
| 47' | Nottingham Forest | Dan Ndoye | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Igor Jesus |
| 47' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ola Aina |
| 48' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Neco Williams |
| 59' |
Liverpool |
Alexander Isak | 0.64 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Cody Gakpo |
| 62' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jérémy Jacquet |
| 67' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Liam Delap |
| 69' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 73' |
Liverpool |
Konstantinos Tsimikas | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Liverpool |
Alexander Isak | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 78' |
Liverpool |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 81' |
Liverpool |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Florian Wirtz |
| 82' | Nottingham Forest | Liam Delap | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Neco Williams |
| 85' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Jesus FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.04 | 0.13 | 1.76 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| Neco Williams DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 1.66 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Xaver Schlager MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Jair DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| James McAtee MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Ola Aina DMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.60 |
| Dan Ndoye AMC | 69 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.94 | 1.58 |
| Liam Delap Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| Luca Netz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.76 | 0.06 | 0.80 |
| Víctor Muñoz AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 0.33 |
| Florian Wirtz AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.89 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.34 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.08 |
| Jérémy Jacquet DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.90 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Cody Gakpo AMR | 74 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 0.89 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Jeremie Frimpong DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.89 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Rio Ngumoha Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ryan Gravenberch Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Ronald Araújo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Treymaurice Nyoni Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |