Liverpool v Sunderland — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 3 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 10
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.35 – 0.18
Goals − xG
-0.38 – +0.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
52.8%
Draw
25.0%
Sunderland win
22.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.36–0.84 | 2-0 11% | 62% | 51% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 1.38 xGSunderland 0.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Sunderland attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 18' |
Liverpool |
Alexander Isak | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Virgil van Dijk |
| 22' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Liverpool |
Alexander Isak | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 27' |
 Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noah Sadiki |
| 31' |
Sunderland |
Noah Sadiki | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 42' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 43' |
Liverpool |
Alexander Isak | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 43' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Joseph Gomez |
| 45' |
Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 57' |
Liverpool |
Joseph Gomez | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 57' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 58' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 60' |
Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Enzo Le Fée |
| 66' |
Sunderland |
Chemsdine Talbi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Enzo Le Fée |
| 71' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 74' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Liverpool |
Florian Wirtz | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 80' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 87' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 88' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Liverpool |
Federico Chiesa | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 89' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Milos Kerkez |
| 89' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 92' |
Liverpool |
Ibrahima Konaté | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 92' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Roefs |
| 98' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Wirtz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.05 | 0.84 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.67 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.60 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Alexander Isak FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Joseph Gomez DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Cody Gakpo AML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mohamed Salah Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| Curtis Jones Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Hugo Ekitike Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Milos Kerkez Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Noah Sadiki MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Chemsdine Talbi ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Trai Hume MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| Reinildo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Nordi Mukiele DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Granit Xhaka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Dan Ballard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Enzo Le Fée FW | 81 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Brian Brobbey FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wilson Isidor Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luke O'Nien Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |