Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 13
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-0.30 – -0.16
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
59.7%
Draw
23.8%
Tottenham Hotspur win
16.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.09–1.04 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.28–1.00 | 2-0 10% | 64% | 57% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 1.30 xGTottenham Hotspur 1.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 11' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Souza | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Djed Spence | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 17' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 20' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Virgil van Dijk |
| 25' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 33' |
Liverpool |
Rio Ngumoha | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 35' |
Liverpool |
Cody Gakpo | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 44' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 47' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 50' |
Liverpool |
Rio Ngumoha | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Liverpool |
Rio Ngumoha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 54' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Guglielmo Vicario |
| 55' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 56' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Richarlison |
| 67' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 67' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 68' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 72' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Djed Spence | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 74' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djed Spence |
| 76' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cody Gakpo |
| 77' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 77' |
Liverpool |
Ryan Gravenberch | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Archie Gray |
| 89' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 95' |
Liverpool |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Chiesa |
| 95' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richarlison FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 0.89 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kevin Danso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.45 |
| Pape Sarr MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Radu Dragusin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Dominic Solanke FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Archie Gray MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Djed Spence DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Mathys Tel ML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| Souza MR | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Xavi Simons Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Randal Kolo Muani Sub | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| Callum Olusesi Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Rowswell Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.31 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| Joseph Gomez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Cody Gakpo FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.44 |
| Rio Ngumoha AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jeremie Frimpong AMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Florian Wirtz AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| Mohamed Salah Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| Hugo Ekitike Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.10 | 0.49 |
| Curtis Jones Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Treymaurice Nyoni Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |