Liverpool v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 February 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 16
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.92 – 0.28
Goals − xG
+0.13 – -0.06
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Liverpool win
81.3%
Draw
12.0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
6.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.94–0.76 | 2-0 11% | 71% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Liverpool 1.87 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 1.06 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Liverpool attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 7' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 16' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Nélson Semedo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 22' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Virgil van Dijk |
| 31' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahima Konaté |
| 36' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 39' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Pablo Sarabia | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | João Gomes |
| 45' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde |
| 46' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 46' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Sarabia |
| 46' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Pablo Sarabia | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 49' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
André | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Emmanuel Agbadou | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | André |
| 49' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde |
| 62' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 64' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | André |
| 66' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde |
| 69' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 71' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tommy Doyle | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 74 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Diogo Jota FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Jarell Quansah Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darwin Núñez Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Conor Bradley Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wataru Endo Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.13 | 0.40 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Nélson Semedo DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.44 |
| Matt Doherty DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Gomes MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.03 | 0.42 |
| Emmanuel Agbadou DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Pablo Sarabia AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Gonçalo Guedes FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Marshall Munetsi Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Sub | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| Santiago Bueno Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommy Doyle Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Lima Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |