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Llaneros v Boyacá Chicó FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627

COL-Primera A results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Llaneros win
53.2%
model 54.4%
Draw
27.8%
model 28.5%
Boyacá Chicó FC win
19.0%
model 17.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 15.6%
  2. 1-1 12.8%
  3. 0-0 12.2%
  4. 2-0 12.2%
  5. 2-1 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.537.2% Under 2.562.8%
BTTS yes40.2% BTTS no59.8%
Llaneros 1+77.0% Llaneros 2+43.2%
Boyacá Chicó FC 1+50.9% Boyacá Chicó FC 2+16.0%

Expected goals 1.47 – 0.71. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
82/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
1-2 goals
Multi goal · usually 45%
52.2% fair odds 1.92
moderate signal · 1994 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Llaneros or draw (1UP)
Double chance 1UP
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Llaneros carry the stronger rating, 1453 Elo against 1354.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Llaneros have an estimated 53.2% win probability, against 27.8% for the draw and 19.0% for Boyacá Chicó FC. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.47 for Llaneros and 0.71 for Boyacá Chicó FC.

Why Llaneros

Llaneros carry the stronger rating, 1453 Elo against 1354.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.8%. A combined 2.18 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 29% in this competition.

Why Boyacá Chicó FC can win

Nothing in the data singles out Boyacá Chicó FC.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Llaneros, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Boyacá Chicó FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Llaneros: 41% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Boyacá Chicó FC: 40% possession, 7.6 shots a match, 9.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Llaneros are the model's most likely outcome at 53.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 15.6%. Confidence 82/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.47–0.71 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.55–0.59 1-0 17% 36% 36%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros to win 60.0% 54.0% 45.8% 1.18× 1.85
Draw 26.9% 27.9% 29.5% 0.95× 3.58
Boyacá Chicó FC to win 13.1% 13.5% 24.8% 0.54× 7.43
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros & not both score 42.8% 40.1% 27.1% 1.48× 2.49
Llaneros & both teams score 17.2% 18.0% 18.8% 0.95× 5.57
Draw & both teams score 14.4% 13.3% 18.8% 0.70× 7.54
Draw & not both score 12.6% 13.3% 10.8% 1.23× 7.54
Boyacá Chicó FC & not both score 8.6% 8.3% 13.4% 0.62× 12.00
Boyacá Chicó FC & both teams score 4.5% 4.9% 11.5% 0.42× 20.49
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros & under 3.5 47.1% 45.0% 35.7% 1.26× 2.22
Llaneros & over 1.5 42.7% 40.3% 33.8% 1.19× 2.48
Llaneros & under 2.5 31.5% 30.7% 20.5% 1.50× 3.25
Llaneros & over 2.5 28.5% 26.1% 25.5% 1.02× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 24.2% 21.6% 23.7% 0.91× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 24.2% 21.6% 23.7% 0.91× 4.63
Llaneros & under 1.5 17.3% 18.0% 12.2% 1.48× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 14.4% 12.8% 18.8% 0.68× 7.79
Llaneros & over 3.5 12.8% 12.8% 10.2% 1.25× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 12.6% 12.8% 10.8% 1.19× 7.79
Boyacá Chicó FC & under 3.5 11.7% 12.8% 19.9% 0.64× 7.79
Boyacá Chicó FC & under 2.5 8.1% 7.9% 12.1% 0.66× 12.63
Boyacá Chicó FC & over 1.5 7.0% 7.9% 16.5% 0.48× 12.63
Boyacá Chicó FC & under 1.5 6.0% 7.9% 8.4% 0.94× 12.63
Boyacá Chicó FC & over 2.5 5.0% 4.8% 12.9% 0.37× 20.81
Draw & over 2.5 2.7% 4.8% 6.0% 0.81× 20.82
Draw & over 3.5 2.7% 4.8% 6.0% 0.81× 20.82
Boyacá Chicó FC & over 3.5 1.4% 4.8% 5.0% 0.96× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros (1UP) 69.2% 70.4% — — 1.42
Boyacá Chicó FC (1UP) 26.0% 26.3% — — 3.80
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros (2UP) 60.0% 55.1% — — 1.82
Boyacá Chicó FC (2UP) 13.1% 13.9% — — 7.18
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros to win 2nd half 46.7% 45.1% — — 2.22
2nd half drawn 39.4% 36.5% — — 2.74
Boyacá Chicó FC to win 2nd half 13.9% 11.3% — — 8.83
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC under 1.5 in 2nd half 95.0% 92.5% — — 1.08
Boyacá Chicó FC under 0.5 in 2nd half 70.1% 75.3% — — 1.33
Boyacá Chicó FC over 0.5 in 2nd half 29.9% 24.7% — — 4.06
Boyacá Chicó FC over 1.5 in 2nd half 5.0% 7.5% — — 13.28
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros under 1.5 in 2nd half 77.8% 75.3% — — 1.33
Llaneros over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.8% 58.1% — — 1.72
Llaneros under 0.5 in 2nd half 41.2% 41.9% — — 2.38
Llaneros over 1.5 in 2nd half 22.2% 24.7% — — 4.05
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros (+0.5) 86.9% 88.5% 75.2% 1.18× 1.13
Boyacá Chicó FC (+2.5) 86.1% 88.5% 91.8% 0.96× 1.13
Boyacá Chicó FC (+1.5) 67.1% 68.7% 79.6% 0.86× 1.46
Llaneros (-0.5) 60.0% 57.1% 45.8% 1.24× 1.75
Boyacá Chicó FC (+0.5) 40.0% 42.9% 54.2% 0.79× 2.33
Llaneros (-1.5) 32.9% 31.3% 20.4% 1.54× 3.19
Llaneros (-2.5) 13.9% 11.5% 8.2% 1.41× 8.66
Boyacá Chicó FC (-0.5) 13.1% 11.5% 24.8% 0.47× 8.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC to concede 78.9% 78.8% 75.9% 1.04× 1.27
Boyacá Chicó FC clean sheet 21.1% 21.2% 24.1% 0.88× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC clean sheet in 1st half 51.3% 50.8% — — 1.97
Boyacá Chicó FC to concede in 1st half 48.7% 49.2% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC to concede in 2nd half 58.8% 57.4% — — 1.74
Boyacá Chicó FC clean sheet in 2nd half 41.2% 42.6% — — 2.35
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC under 6.5 corners 85.9% 85.2% — — 1.17
Boyacá Chicó FC under 5.5 corners 77.1% 76.0% — — 1.32
Boyacá Chicó FC over 2.5 corners 68.4% 67.6% — — 1.48
Boyacá Chicó FC under 4.5 corners 64.7% 61.7% — — 1.62
Boyacá Chicó FC over 3.5 corners 51.0% 53.1% — — 1.88
Boyacá Chicó FC under 3.5 corners 49.0% 46.9% — — 2.13
Boyacá Chicó FC over 4.5 corners 35.3% 38.3% — — 2.61
Boyacá Chicó FC under 2.5 corners 31.6% 32.4% — — 3.09
Boyacá Chicó FC over 5.5 corners 22.9% 24.0% — — 4.18
Boyacá Chicó FC over 6.5 corners 14.1% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC under 3.5 goals 99.7% 97.5% 98.1% 0.99× 1.03
Boyacá Chicó FC under 2.5 goals 97.8% 97.5% 92.9% 1.05× 1.03
Boyacá Chicó FC under 1.5 goals 88.1% 87.8% 74.2% 1.18× 1.14
Boyacá Chicó FC under 0.5 goals 55.4% 59.4% 37.8% 1.57× 1.68
Boyacá Chicó FC over 0.5 goals 44.6% 40.6% 62.2% 0.65× 2.46
Boyacá Chicó FC over 1.5 goals 11.9% 12.2% 25.8% 0.47× 8.20
Boyacá Chicó FC over 2.5 goals 2.2% 2.5% 7.1% 0.36× 39.86
Boyacá Chicó FC over 3.5 goals 0.3% 2.5% 1.9% 1.29× 39.95
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC under 1.5 in 1st half 97.6% 96.3% — — 1.04
Boyacá Chicó FC under 0.5 in 1st half 78.9% 75.4% — — 1.33
Boyacá Chicó FC over 0.5 in 1st half 21.1% 24.6% — — 4.06
Boyacá Chicó FC over 1.5 in 1st half 2.4% 3.7% — — 26.83
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC scores equally in both 60.1% 61.0% — — 1.64
Boyacá Chicó FC scores more in 2nd half 24.5% 21.8% — — 4.58
Boyacá Chicó FC scores more in 1st half 15.4% 17.8% — — 5.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros (away no bet) 69.0% 66.5% 60.8% 1.09× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 31.0% 33.5% 39.2% 0.86× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC even goals 65.3% 64.8% 57.6% 1.12× 1.54
Boyacá Chicó FC odd goals 34.7% 35.2% 42.4% 0.83× 2.84
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 91.9% 91.5% — — 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 8.1% 8.5% — — 11.82
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 50.5% 50.4% — — 1.99
Both halves under 1.5 goals 49.5% 49.6% — — 2.02
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 47.6% 46.2% — — 2.17
Llaneros to score 2+ in a row 41.4% 38.7% — — 2.59
Either team to score 3+ in a row 17.7% 16.2% — — 6.19
Llaneros to score 3+ in a row 16.5% 16.1% — — 6.20
Boyacá Chicó FC to score 2+ in a row 8.2% 5.5% — — 18.12
Boyacá Chicó FC to score 3+ in a row 1.2% 2.5% — — 40.25
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros corners (+3.5) 91.4% 89.6% — — 1.12
Llaneros corners (+2.5) 86.5% 84.5% — — 1.18
Llaneros corners (+1.5) 79.7% 74.8% — — 1.34
Boyacá Chicó FC corners (+3.5) 69.8% 65.9% — — 1.52
Boyacá Chicó FC corners (+2.5) 60.2% 61.8% — — 1.62
Llaneros corners (-1.5) 50.3% 52.4% — — 1.91
Boyacá Chicó FC corners (+1.5) 49.7% 47.6% — — 2.10
Llaneros corners (-2.5) 39.8% 38.2% — — 2.62
Llaneros corners (-3.5) 30.2% 34.1% — — 2.93
Boyacá Chicó FC corners (-1.5) 20.3% 25.2% — — 3.97
Boyacá Chicó FC corners (-2.5) 13.6% 15.5% — — 6.45
Boyacá Chicó FC corners (-3.5) 8.6% 10.4% — — 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 44.1% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 28.2% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 27.8% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 79.2% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 11.5 corners 72.2% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 66.3% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 63.9% 63.3% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 55.9% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 54.3% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 45.7% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 44.1% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 36.1% 36.7% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 33.7% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 27.8% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 20.8% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 17.3% 13.8% 12.2% 1.13× 7.23
2-0 14.1% 11.5% 8.4% 1.36× 8.71
0-0 12.6% 11.5% 10.8% 1.06× 8.71
1-1 11.6% 11.5% 13.0% 0.88× 8.71
2-1 8.4% 7.4% 10.9% 0.68× 13.51
3-0 7.3% 7.4% 4.6% 1.62× 13.51
0-1 6.0% 7.4% 8.4% 0.88× 13.51
0-2 2.0% 1.7% 3.7% 0.46× 58.31
0-3 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.55× 58.32
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.6% 3.10× 58.32
1-2 3.2% 1.7% 7.1% 0.24× 58.30
1-3 0.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.24× 58.32
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.48× 58.32
2-2 2.5% 1.7% 5.3% 0.33× 58.31
2-3 0.5% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.32
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 12.38× 58.32
3-1 4.3% 1.7% 3.5% 0.50× 58.29
3-2 1.3% 1.7% 2.4% 0.73× 58.31
3-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.06× 58.32
3-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 6.19× 58.32
4-0 2.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.03× 58.30
4-1 1.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.48× 58.31
4-2 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 2.48× 58.32
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.6% 3.10× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 12.38× 58.32
Any other score 2.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.73× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros (2nd half DNB) 77.0% 79.6% — — 1.26
Boyacá Chicó FC (2nd half DNB) 23.0% 20.4% — — 4.91
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros leading at HT (DNB) 78.2% 75.4% — — 1.33
Boyacá Chicó FC leading at HT (DNB) 21.8% 24.6% — — 4.07
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros or draw (1X) 86.9% 86.5% 75.2% 1.15× 1.16
Llaneros or Boyacá Chicó FC (12) 73.1% 72.1% 70.5% 1.02× 1.39
Boyacá Chicó FC or draw (X2) 40.0% 46.0% 54.2% 0.85× 2.17
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros or draw at HT 88.5% 88.4% — — 1.13
Boyacá Chicó FC or draw at HT 58.9% 57.5% — — 1.74
Llaneros or Boyacá Chicó FC at HT 52.6% 48.5% — — 2.06
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros or draw (1UP) 86.9% 92.0% — — 1.09
Boyacá Chicó FC or draw (1UP) 40.0% 52.5% — — 1.91
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros or draw in 2nd half 86.1% 88.7% — — 1.13
Llaneros or Boyacá Chicó FC in 2nd half 60.6% 63.5% — — 1.58
Boyacá Chicó FC or draw in 2nd half 53.3% 54.9% — — 1.82
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 67.2% 68.2% — — 1.47
Neither half drawn 32.8% 31.8% — — 3.14
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros (DNB) 82.1% 80.4% 64.9% 1.24× 1.24
Boyacá Chicó FC (DNB) 17.9% 19.6% 35.1% 0.56× 5.09
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros to score first 63.3% 64.0% — — 1.56
Boyacá Chicó FC to score first 24.1% 23.1% — — 4.33
No goal scored 12.6% 9.9% — — 10.11
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 63.9% 56.7% 51.1% 1.11× 1.77
Both teams to score 36.1% 43.3% 48.9% 0.89× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 52.1% 47.2% 43.1% 1.10× 2.12
Both score & over 2.5 24.4% 27.9% 36.0% 0.78× 3.58
Both score & under 2.5 11.6% 12.4% 13.0% 0.95× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 11.8% 12.4% 8.2% 1.51× 8.09
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 94.5% 89.0% 88.6% 1.00× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 5.5% 11.0% 11.4% 0.97× 9.12
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 82.2% 73.3% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 17.8% 26.7% — — 3.75
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 73.5% 69.0% — — 1.45
Both score 2nd half only 16.0% 14.9% — — 6.71
Both score 1st half only 8.6% 6.8% — — 14.68
Both score in both halves 1.8% 4.8% — — 20.81
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 89.6% 85.2% — — 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 10.4% 14.8% — — 6.78
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 57.3% 57.0% — — 1.75
A goal in each half 42.7% 43.0% — — 2.33
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.1% 47.2% 48.1% 0.98× 2.12
0-1 goals 35.9% 35.0% 31.2% 1.12× 2.86
4-6 goals 16.3% 20.2% 19.5% 1.04× 4.95
7+ goals 0.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.20× 54.50
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC to score exactly 0 55.4% 51.7% 37.8% 1.37× 1.94
Boyacá Chicó FC to score exactly 1 32.7% 33.8% 36.6% 0.93× 2.96
Boyacá Chicó FC to score exactly 2 9.7% 8.6% 18.8% 0.45× 11.68
Boyacá Chicó FC to score 3+ 2.2% 4.6% 7.1% 0.65× 21.92
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros to score exactly 1 32.9% 32.6% 34.5% 0.94× 3.07
Llaneros to score exactly 2 25.5% 26.6% 26.2% 1.01× 3.77
Llaneros to score exactly 0 21.1% 23.3% 24.1% 0.97× 4.30
Llaneros to score 3+ 20.5% 23.3% 15.5% 1.50× 4.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.4% 51.5% — — 1.94
Llaneros leading at HT 41.1% 42.5% — — 2.35
Boyacá Chicó FC leading at HT 11.5% 11.6% — — 8.62
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros -1: 2 40.0% 42.7% — — 2.34
Llaneros -1: 1 32.9% 30.1% — — 3.33
Llaneros -1: X 27.1% 26.5% — — 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC (0:1) 40.0% 42.5% 54.2% 0.79× 2.35
Llaneros (0:1) 32.9% 30.1% 20.4% 1.48× 3.32
Draw (0:1) 27.1% 27.0% 25.6% 1.05× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC (0:2) 67.1% 72.2% 79.6% 0.91× 1.39
Draw (0:2) 19.0% 15.3% 12.3% 1.24× 6.55
Llaneros (0:2) 13.9% 11.0% 8.2% 1.35× 9.09
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC (0:3) 86.1% 90.6% 91.8% 0.99× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 9.2% 5.8% 5.4% 1.08× 17.21
Llaneros (0:3) 4.8% 2.4% 2.9% 0.82× 41.93
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC (0:4) 95.2% 98.1% 97.1% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.4% 1.2% 1.9% 0.63× 81.59
Llaneros (0:4) 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.10× 81.82
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros (1:0) 86.9% 86.1% 75.2% 1.14× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 9.7% 6.9% 17.3% 0.40× 14.46
Boyacá Chicó FC (1:0) 3.3% 3.3% 7.6% 0.43× 30.61
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros (2:0) 96.7% 96.8% 92.4% 1.05× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 2.7% 2.3% 5.0% 0.46× 43.75
Boyacá Chicó FC (2:0) 0.6% 2.3% 2.8% 0.82× 43.89
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 43.3% 45.4% — — 2.21
Halves equal 30.3% 30.4% — — 3.29
1st half highest scoring 26.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros clean sheet 55.4% 60.6% 37.8% 1.60× 1.65
Llaneros to concede 44.6% 39.4% 62.2% 0.63× 2.54
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros clean sheet in 1st half 78.9% 78.6% — — 1.27
Llaneros to concede in 1st half 21.1% 21.4% — — 4.67
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros clean sheet in 2nd half 70.1% 72.3% — — 1.38
Llaneros to concede in 2nd half 29.9% 27.7% — — 3.61
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros over 2.5 corners 84.4% 81.0% — — 1.24
Llaneros over 3.5 corners 72.3% 71.9% — — 1.39
Llaneros under 6.5 corners 66.4% 66.7% — — 1.50
Llaneros over 4.5 corners 58.7% 57.5% — — 1.74
Llaneros under 5.5 corners 54.6% 52.6% — — 1.90
Llaneros over 5.5 corners 45.4% 47.4% — — 2.11
Llaneros under 4.5 corners 41.3% 42.5% — — 2.35
Llaneros over 6.5 corners 33.6% 33.3% — — 3.01
Llaneros under 3.5 corners 27.7% 28.1% — — 3.56
Llaneros under 2.5 corners 15.6% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros under 3.5 goals 92.7% 92.2% 95.3% 0.97× 1.08
Llaneros under 2.5 goals 79.5% 77.8% 84.5% 0.92× 1.29
Llaneros over 0.5 goals 78.9% 77.8% 75.9% 1.02× 1.29
Llaneros under 1.5 goals 54.0% 53.2% 58.4% 0.91× 1.88
Llaneros over 1.5 goals 46.0% 46.8% 41.6% 1.13× 2.14
Llaneros under 0.5 goals 21.1% 22.2% 24.1% 0.92× 4.50
Llaneros over 2.5 goals 20.5% 22.2% 15.5% 1.43× 4.50
Llaneros over 3.5 goals 7.3% 7.8% 4.7% 1.65× 12.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros under 1.5 in 1st half 85.5% 90.0% — — 1.11
Llaneros under 0.5 in 1st half 51.3% 50.6% — — 1.98
Llaneros over 0.5 in 1st half 48.7% 49.4% — — 2.02
Llaneros over 1.5 in 1st half 14.5% 10.0% — — 9.99
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros scores more in 2nd half 38.5% 38.1% — — 2.62
Llaneros scores equally in both 35.6% 38.1% — — 2.63
Llaneros scores more in 1st half 25.9% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 67.3% 64.2% 54.3% 1.18× 1.56
Boyacá Chicó FC (home no bet) 32.7% 35.8% 45.7% 0.78× 2.79
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros even goals 52.2% 50.8% 53.3% 0.95× 1.97
Llaneros odd goals 47.8% 49.2% 46.7% 1.06× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 40.6% 38.7% — — 2.58
HT 1-0 26.9% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 0-1 9.4% 6.9% — — 14.51
HT 2-0 9.0% 6.9% — — 14.52
HT 1-1 6.5% 6.9% — — 14.56
Any other HT score 3.2% 2.4% — — 42.21
HT 2-1 2.1% 2.4% — — 42.28
HT 0-2 1.1% 2.4% — — 42.35
HT 1-2 0.8% 2.4% — — 42.37
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.4% — — 42.40
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros at HT / Llaneros at FT 36.5% 41.2% — — 2.43
Draw at HT / Llaneros at FT 21.7% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 19.6% 16.8% — — 5.95
Boyacá Chicó FC at HT / Boyacá Chicó FC at FT 6.2% 6.1% — — 16.52
Draw at HT / Boyacá Chicó FC at FT 6.2% 6.1% — — 16.52
Llaneros at HT / Draw at FT 3.9% 3.5% — — 28.89
Boyacá Chicó FC at HT / Draw at FT 3.4% 3.5% — — 28.91
Boyacá Chicó FC at HT / Llaneros at FT 1.8% 3.5% — — 28.97
Llaneros at HT / Boyacá Chicó FC at FT 0.7% 3.4% — — 29.01
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros to score last 63.5% 62.2% — — 1.61
Boyacá Chicó FC to score last 23.9% 25.9% — — 3.86
No goal scored 12.6% 9.3% — — 10.76
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 87.4% 91.3% — — 1.10
Llaneros to lead by 1 at any time 69.2% 69.4% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 42.3% 39.2% — — 2.55
Llaneros to lead by 2 at any time 37.0% 34.8% — — 2.88
Boyacá Chicó FC to lead by 1 at any time 26.0% 25.2% — — 3.96
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.2% 14.8% — — 6.75
Llaneros to lead by 3 at any time 15.4% 14.8% — — 6.76
Boyacá Chicó FC to lead by 2 at any time 5.3% 6.6% — — 15.14
Boyacá Chicó FC to lead by 3 at any time 0.8% 1.6% — — 64.46
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros most corners 61.0% 60.6% — — 1.65
Boyacá Chicó FC most corners 29.0% 31.1% — — 3.22
Corners level 10.0% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.2% 87.4% 85.7% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.8% 83.4% 80.1% 1.04× 1.20
1-3 goals 70.4% 72.3% 68.4% 1.06× 1.38
2-6 goals 63.4% 63.3% 67.5% 0.94× 1.58
2-5 goals 61.8% 63.3% 65.4% 0.97× 1.58
2-4 goals 57.4% 59.1% 59.7% 0.99× 1.69
1-2 goals 51.2% 53.1% 45.3% 1.17× 1.88
2-3 goals 47.1% 48.4% 48.1% 1.01× 2.06
3-6 goals 35.6% 39.2% 42.7% 0.92× 2.55
3-5 goals 34.0% 35.2% 40.6% 0.87× 2.84
3-4 goals 29.6% 30.2% 34.9% 0.87× 3.31
4-6 goals 16.3% 18.8% 19.5% 0.96× 5.31
4-5 goals 14.8% 14.8% 17.5% 0.85× 6.75
5-6 goals 6.0% 8.9% 7.9% 1.12× 11.27
7+ goals 0.7% 2.5% 1.5% 1.67× 39.24
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros never behind 61.4% 68.1% — — 1.47
Boyacá Chicó FC never behind 18.2% 18.4% — — 5.44
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.6% 50.9% 50.4% 1.01× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.4% 49.1% 49.6% 0.99× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 58.5% 57.9% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 41.5% 42.1% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.8% 52.1% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.2% 47.9% — — 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.8% 95.4% 96.4% 0.99× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 93.3% 92.3% 90.7% 1.02× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 87.4% 87.6% 89.2% 0.98× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 83.0% 82.3% 79.1% 1.04× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 64.1% 61.7% 68.8% 0.90× 1.62
Under 2.5 goals 63.8% 61.7% 56.0% 1.10× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 36.2% 38.3% 44.0% 0.87× 2.61
Under 1.5 goals 35.9% 38.3% 31.2% 1.23× 2.61
Over 3.5 goals 17.0% 17.7% 20.9% 0.85× 5.65
Under 0.5 goals 12.6% 12.4% 10.8% 1.15× 8.07
Over 4.5 goals 6.7% 7.7% 9.3% 0.83× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 2.2% 4.6% 3.6% 1.27× 21.84
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.3% 97.2% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.7% 97.2% 96.2% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 92.6% 92.4% 89.5% 1.03× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 79.0% 75.9% 72.8% 1.04× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 50.2% 51.8% 58.6% 0.89× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 49.8% 48.2% 41.4% 1.16× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 21.0% 24.1% 27.2% 0.89× 4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 7.4% 7.6% 10.5% 0.72× 13.19
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.3% 2.8% 3.8% 0.74× 35.63
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.7% 2.8% 1.6% 1.80× 35.67
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 93.6% 92.9% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 76.9% 78.1% — — 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 59.4% 64.8% — — 1.54
Under 0.5 in 1st half 40.6% 35.2% — — 2.84
Over 1.5 in 1st half 23.1% 21.9% — — 4.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.4% 7.1% — — 14.06
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 87.1% 85.4% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 70.8% 77.6% — — 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 64.5% 61.6% — — 1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 35.5% 38.4% — — 2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 29.2% 22.4% — — 4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 12.9% 14.6% — — 6.83
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC not to score in both halves 93.7% 90.9% — — 1.10
Llaneros not to score in both halves 71.4% 73.8% — — 1.36
Llaneros to score in both halves 28.6% 26.2% — — 3.82
Boyacá Chicó FC to score in both halves 6.3% 9.1% — — 10.96
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Llaneros scores 42.8% 46.6% 27.1% 1.72× 2.15
Both teams score 36.1% 39.9% 48.9% 0.82× 2.51
Neither team scores 12.6% 11.0% 10.8% 1.02× 9.06
Only Boyacá Chicó FC scores 8.6% 7.1% 13.4% 0.53× 13.99
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.8% 24.9% 24.9% 1.00× 4.02
Exactly 1 goals 23.4% 22.6% 20.5% 1.10× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 19.3% 17.5% 23.3% 0.75× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 12.6% 12.1% 10.8% 1.12× 8.26
Exactly 4 goals 10.3% 12.1% 11.8% 1.03× 8.26
Exactly 5 goals 4.4% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.33
6 or more goals 2.2% 4.5% 3.6% 1.24× 22.37
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 40.6% 38.7% — — 2.58
1 goal in 1st half 36.3% 37.2% — — 2.69
2 goals in 1st half 16.7% 15.6% — — 6.39
3+ goals in 1st half 6.4% 7.1% — — 14.06
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 35.5% 39.6% — — 2.52
1 goal in 2nd half 35.3% 39.6% — — 2.53
No goals in 2nd half 29.2% 29.2% — — 3.43
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC not to win both halves 98.3% 97.3% — — 1.03
Llaneros not to win both halves 80.6% 83.3% — — 1.20
Llaneros to win both halves 19.4% 16.7% — — 6.00
Boyacá Chicó FC to win both halves 1.7% 2.7% — — 36.55
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC to win neither half 76.2% 79.6% — — 1.26
Llaneros to win either half 68.4% 67.9% — — 1.47
Llaneros to win neither half 31.6% 32.1% — — 3.12
Boyacá Chicó FC to win either half 23.8% 20.4% — — 4.89
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Boyacá Chicó FC not to win to nil 91.4% 92.1% 86.6% 1.06× 1.09
Llaneros not to win to nil 57.2% 59.1% 72.9% 0.81× 1.69
Llaneros to win to nil 42.8% 40.9% 27.1% 1.51× 2.45
Boyacá Chicó FC to win to nil 8.6% 7.9% 13.4% 0.59× 12.63
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Llaneros by 1 27.1% 27.9% 25.6% 1.09× 3.59
Draw 26.9% 27.9% 29.5% 0.94× 3.59
Llaneros by 2 19.0% 17.1% 12.3% 1.38× 5.86
Llaneros by 3+ 13.9% 11.8% 8.2% 1.44× 8.50
Boyacá Chicó FC by 1 9.7% 7.2% 17.3% 0.42× 13.90
Boyacá Chicó FC by 2 2.7% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.89
Boyacá Chicó FC by 3+ 0.6% 2.7% 2.8% 0.98× 36.95
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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