Llaneros v Deportes Tolima — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 7 September 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627

COL-Primera A results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 18:39 UTC

Llaneros

1–2

23:00 UTC

Deportes Tolima

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 7 Sep, 07:51 · 15h before kick-off

Llaneros win

29.4%

model 29.7%

Draw

30.1%

model 31.5%

Deportes Tolima win

40.6%

model 38.8%

293041

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.6%
0-0 12.5%
0-1 12.1%
1-0 10.0%
1-2 7.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	37.4%	Under 2.5	62.6%
BTTS yes	45.2%	BTTS no	54.8%
Llaneros 1+	63.3%	Llaneros 2+	26.5%
Deportes Tolima 1+	69.4%	Deportes Tolima 2+	33.2%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Deportes Tolima (DNB)

Draw no bet · usually 35%

63.2% fair odds 1.58

strong signal · 271 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Llaneros (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 92%

83.1% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 326 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Deportes Tolima carry the stronger rating, 1602 Elo against 1467.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Deportes Tolima have an estimated 40.6% win probability, against 30.1% for the draw and 29.4% for Llaneros. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.00 for Llaneros and 1.18 for Deportes Tolima.

Why Llaneros

Nothing in the data singles out Llaneros.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.1%. A combined 2.19 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.00 to 1.18. Draws run at 29% in this competition.

Why Deportes Tolima can win

Deportes Tolima carry the stronger rating, 1602 Elo against 1467.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Llaneros, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Deportes Tolima, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Llaneros: 40% possession, 8.6 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Deportes Tolima: 59% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Deportes Tolima are the model's most likely outcome at 40.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.6%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	303239	1.00–1.18	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
ai-blend-oos	323335	1.00–1.07	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	313435	0.91–1.00	0-0 16%	30%	39%	Away ✓
dc-xg-oos	343332	0.97–0.93	0-0 16%	30%	38%	Home ✗
deep	283338	0.89–1.08	0-0 15%	32%	40%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima to win	38.4%	36.4%	24.8%	1.47×	2.75
Draw	33.4%	30.4%	29.5%	1.03×	3.29
Llaneros to win	28.2%	27.9%	45.9%	0.61×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima & not both score	26.0%	25.2%	13.5%	1.87×	3.97
Llaneros & not both score	18.7%	17.9%	27.1%	0.66×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	18.2%	17.9%	18.8%	0.95×	5.58
Draw & not both score	15.2%	17.9%	10.8%	1.65×	5.58
Deportes Tolima & both teams score	12.5%	13.3%	11.4%	1.16×	7.54
Llaneros & both teams score	9.5%	8.4%	18.9%	0.44×	11.92

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima & under 3.5	32.2%	30.9%	19.9%	1.55×	3.24
Draw & under 2.5	29.8%	26.0%	23.8%	1.09×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	29.8%	26.0%	23.8%	1.09×	3.84
Deportes Tolima & over 1.5	24.6%	21.7%	16.4%	1.32×	4.62
Llaneros & under 3.5	24.2%	21.7%	35.7%	0.61×	4.62
Deportes Tolima & under 2.5	22.0%	21.7%	12.1%	1.79×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	18.2%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.56
Llaneros & over 1.5	17.0%	18.0%	33.9%	0.53×	5.56
Llaneros & under 2.5	16.6%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Deportes Tolima & over 2.5	16.4%	18.0%	12.8%	1.41×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	15.2%	18.0%	10.8%	1.66×	5.56
Deportes Tolima & under 1.5	13.8%	12.9%	8.5%	1.52×	7.77
Llaneros & over 2.5	11.5%	12.9%	25.6%	0.50×	7.77
Llaneros & under 1.5	11.1%	12.9%	12.1%	1.06×	7.77
Deportes Tolima & over 3.5	6.2%	7.9%	5.0%	1.57×	12.70
Llaneros & over 3.5	4.0%	4.8%	10.3%	0.46×	20.93
Draw & over 2.5	3.6%	4.8%	5.8%	0.82×	20.94
Draw & over 3.5	3.6%	4.8%	5.8%	0.82×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima (1UP)	51.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Llaneros (1UP)	42.0%	39.4%	—	—	2.54

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima (2UP)	38.4%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Llaneros (2UP)	28.2%	24.9%	—	—	4.01

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	43.6%	41.1%	—	—	2.43
Deportes Tolima to win 2nd half	32.8%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Llaneros to win 2nd half	23.6%	23.2%	—	—	4.32

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima (+2.5)	97.4%	96.3%	91.8%	1.05×	1.04
Deportes Tolima (+1.5)	89.9%	88.5%	79.6%	1.11×	1.13
Deportes Tolima (+0.5)	71.8%	73.7%	54.1%	1.36×	1.36
Llaneros (+0.5)	61.6%	62.9%	75.2%	0.84×	1.59
Deportes Tolima (-0.5)	38.4%	37.1%	24.8%	1.50×	2.70
Llaneros (-0.5)	28.2%	26.3%	45.9%	0.57×	3.80
Llaneros (-1.5)	10.1%	11.5%	20.4%	0.56×	8.71
Llaneros (-2.5)	2.6%	3.7%	8.2%	0.45×	26.91

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima to concede	58.8%	62.8%	75.8%	0.83×	1.59
Deportes Tolima clean sheet	41.2%	37.2%	24.2%	1.54×	2.69

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima clean sheet in 1st half	68.3%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Deportes Tolima to concede in 1st half	31.7%	30.5%	—	—	3.28

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima under 6.5 corners	80.6%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Deportes Tolima over 2.5 corners	74.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Deportes Tolima under 5.5 corners	70.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Deportes Tolima over 3.5 corners	58.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Deportes Tolima under 4.5 corners	57.2%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Deportes Tolima over 4.5 corners	42.8%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Deportes Tolima under 3.5 corners	41.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Deportes Tolima over 5.5 corners	29.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Deportes Tolima under 2.5 corners	25.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Deportes Tolima over 6.5 corners	19.4%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima under 3.5 goals	97.5%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Deportes Tolima under 2.5 goals	90.4%	92.3%	92.9%	0.99×	1.08
Deportes Tolima under 1.5 goals	70.5%	71.9%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Deportes Tolima over 0.5 goals	66.2%	67.9%	62.2%	1.09×	1.47
Deportes Tolima under 0.5 goals	33.8%	32.1%	37.8%	0.85×	3.12
Deportes Tolima over 1.5 goals	29.5%	28.1%	25.6%	1.10×	3.56
Deportes Tolima over 2.5 goals	9.6%	7.7%	7.1%	1.08×	13.02
Deportes Tolima over 3.5 goals	2.5%	2.5%	1.9%	1.26×	40.75

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima under 1.5 in 1st half	92.9%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Deportes Tolima under 0.5 in 1st half	64.8%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Deportes Tolima over 0.5 in 1st half	35.2%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
Deportes Tolima over 1.5 in 1st half	7.1%	5.8%	—	—	17.23

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	54.2%	51.3%	39.1%	1.31×	1.95
Llaneros (away no bet)	45.8%	48.7%	60.9%	0.80×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima even goals	55.7%	56.9%	57.4%	0.99×	1.76
Deportes Tolima odd goals	44.3%	43.1%	42.6%	1.01×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	93.7%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	6.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.05

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	53.9%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
Not both halves under 1.5	46.1%	49.7%	—	—	2.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	39.5%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Deportes Tolima to score 2+ in a row	24.5%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Llaneros to score 2+ in a row	17.5%	16.3%	—	—	6.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row	10.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.25
Deportes Tolima to score 3+ in a row	6.8%	5.6%	—	—	17.74
Llaneros to score 3+ in a row	3.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.17

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros corners (+3.5)	86.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Llaneros corners (+2.5)	79.4%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Deportes Tolima corners (+3.5)	78.8%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Llaneros corners (+1.5)	70.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Deportes Tolima corners (+2.5)	70.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Deportes Tolima corners (+1.5)	60.7%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Llaneros corners (-1.5)	39.3%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Llaneros corners (-2.5)	29.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Deportes Tolima corners (-1.5)	29.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Llaneros corners (-3.5)	21.2%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Deportes Tolima corners (-2.5)	20.6%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Deportes Tolima corners (-3.5)	14.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.4%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	28.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	26.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	80.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	73.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	65.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	65.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 9.5 corners	55.7%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.4%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	44.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	34.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 10.5 corners	34.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 11.5 corners	26.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	19.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.19

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-0	15.2%	13.7%	10.8%	1.27×	7.28
1-1	14.6%	11.5%	13.1%	0.88×	8.73
0-1	13.8%	11.5%	8.5%	1.35×	8.73
1-0	11.1%	11.5%	12.1%	0.95×	8.73
0-2	8.2%	7.4%	3.8%	1.98×	13.48
1-2	7.3%	7.4%	7.0%	1.07×	13.48
2-0	5.5%	7.4%	8.5%	0.87×	13.48
2-1	5.9%	7.4%	11.0%	0.68×	13.48
0-3	3.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.47
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.6%	3.08×	58.49
1-3	2.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.47
1-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.46×	58.49
2-2	3.2%	1.7%	5.1%	0.33×	58.47
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.48
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	12.30×	58.49
3-0	1.6%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.48
3-1	1.8%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.48
3-2	1.0%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.48
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.05×	58.49
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	6.15×	58.49
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.49
4-1	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.46×	58.49
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.46×	58.49
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	3.08×	58.49
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	12.30×	58.49
Any other score	0.7%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima leading at HT (DNB)	53.9%	56.0%	—	—	1.78
Llaneros leading at HT (DNB)	46.1%	44.0%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima or draw (X2)	71.8%	72.1%	54.1%	1.33×	1.39
Llaneros or Deportes Tolima (12)	66.6%	69.6%	70.5%	0.99×	1.44
Llaneros or draw (1X)	61.6%	63.6%	75.2%	0.84×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima or draw at HT	78.0%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Llaneros or draw at HT	74.3%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Llaneros or Deportes Tolima at HT	47.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima or draw (1UP)	71.8%	80.1%	—	—	1.25
Llaneros or draw (1UP)	61.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima or draw in 2nd half	76.4%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Llaneros or draw in 2nd half	67.2%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Llaneros or Deportes Tolima in 2nd half	56.4%	58.9%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	71.8%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Neither half drawn	28.2%	29.4%	—	—	3.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima (DNB)	57.7%	58.3%	35.0%	1.66×	1.72
Llaneros (DNB)	42.3%	41.7%	65.0%	0.64×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima to score first	46.6%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Llaneros to score first	38.2%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	15.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.97

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	59.8%	54.9%	51.2%	1.07×	1.82
Both teams to score	40.2%	45.1%	48.8%	0.92×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	53.8%	47.1%	43.1%	1.09×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	25.5%	33.6%	35.9%	0.94×	2.98
Both score & under 2.5	14.6%	12.3%	13.1%	0.94×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	6.0%	8.4%	8.2%	1.02×	11.97

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	93.4%	89.1%	88.7%	1.00×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	6.6%	10.9%	11.3%	0.97×	9.19

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	80.6%	72.2%	—	—	1.38
Both teams to score in 2nd half	19.4%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	71.3%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Both score 2nd half only	17.3%	15.6%	—	—	6.40
Both score 1st half only	9.3%	6.8%	—	—	14.63
Both score in both halves	2.1%	4.9%	—	—	20.30

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	11.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	61.2%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
A goal in each half	38.8%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.1%	47.4%	48.1%	0.98×	2.11
0-1 goals	40.1%	42.1%	31.2%	1.35×	2.38
4-6 goals	13.4%	16.9%	19.5%	0.87×	5.90
7+ goals	0.4%	1.8%	1.5%	1.19×	54.77

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	36.7%	0.98×	2.78
Deportes Tolima to score exactly 0	33.8%	33.8%	37.8%	0.89×	2.96
Deportes Tolima to score exactly 2	19.9%	19.6%	18.6%	1.05×	5.11
Deportes Tolima to score 3+	9.6%	8.5%	7.1%	1.19×	11.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.6%	34.4%	1.04×	2.81
Llaneros to score exactly 0	41.2%	34.9%	24.2%	1.44×	2.87
Llaneros to score exactly 2	16.2%	18.9%	26.1%	0.72×	5.29
Llaneros to score 3+	6.1%	10.3%	15.6%	0.66×	9.74

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	52.3%	48.0%	—	—	2.08
Deportes Tolima leading at HT	25.7%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
Llaneros leading at HT	22.0%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima -1: 1	61.6%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Deportes Tolima -1: X	22.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Deportes Tolima -1: 2	16.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima (0:1)	71.8%	71.0%	54.1%	1.31×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	18.1%	17.8%	25.6%	0.69×	5.63
Llaneros (0:1)	10.1%	13.8%	20.4%	0.68×	7.24

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima (0:2)	89.9%	87.0%	79.6%	1.09×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.5%	7.7%	12.4%	0.62×	12.95
Llaneros (0:2)	2.6%	3.8%	8.2%	0.46×	26.60

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima (0:3)	97.4%	96.6%	91.8%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.1%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.17
Llaneros (0:3)	0.5%	2.4%	2.9%	0.81×	42.24

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima (0:4)	99.5%	98.1%	97.1%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.9%	0.61×	83.63
Llaneros (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.1%	1.07×	83.68

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros (1:0)	61.6%	65.1%	75.2%	0.86×	1.54
Draw (1:0)	22.4%	21.8%	17.2%	1.26×	4.59
Deportes Tolima (1:0)	16.1%	17.0%	7.7%	2.23×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros (2:0)	83.9%	84.6%	92.4%	0.92×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.1%	10.4%	5.0%	2.07×	9.65
Deportes Tolima (2:0)	4.9%	2.3%	2.8%	0.82×	44.05

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.7%	49.4%	—	—	2.03
Halves equal	32.3%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
1st half highest scoring	25.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros to concede	66.2%	66.5%	62.2%	1.07×	1.50
Llaneros clean sheet	33.8%	33.5%	37.8%	0.88×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros clean sheet in 1st half	64.8%	64.3%	—	—	1.55
Llaneros to concede in 1st half	35.2%	35.7%	—	—	2.80

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros over 2.5 corners	79.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Llaneros under 6.5 corners	74.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Llaneros over 3.5 corners	65.4%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Llaneros under 5.5 corners	62.9%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Llaneros over 4.5 corners	50.6%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Llaneros under 4.5 corners	49.4%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Llaneros over 5.5 corners	37.1%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Llaneros under 3.5 corners	34.6%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Llaneros over 6.5 corners	25.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Llaneros under 2.5 corners	20.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros under 3.5 goals	98.7%	96.4%	95.3%	1.01×	1.04
Llaneros under 2.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	84.4%	1.09×	1.08
Llaneros under 1.5 goals	77.7%	77.7%	58.4%	1.33×	1.29
Llaneros over 0.5 goals	58.8%	58.8%	75.8%	0.78×	1.70
Llaneros under 0.5 goals	41.2%	41.2%	24.2%	1.70×	2.43
Llaneros over 1.5 goals	22.3%	22.3%	41.6%	0.54×	4.49
Llaneros over 2.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	15.6%	0.50×	12.92
Llaneros over 3.5 goals	1.3%	3.6%	4.7%	0.77×	27.56

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros under 1.5 in 1st half	94.3%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Llaneros under 0.5 in 1st half	68.3%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Llaneros over 0.5 in 1st half	31.7%	31.9%	—	—	3.14
Llaneros over 1.5 in 1st half	5.7%	4.5%	—	—	22.41

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima (home no bet)	53.5%	51.6%	45.6%	1.13×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	46.5%	48.4%	54.4%	0.89×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros even goals	58.5%	55.5%	53.4%	1.04×	1.80
Llaneros odd goals	41.5%	44.5%	46.6%	0.96×	2.25

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	44.5%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
HT 0-1	19.0%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 1-0	16.7%	18.7%	—	—	5.34
HT 1-1	7.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 0-2	4.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.30
HT 2-0	3.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.37
Any other HT score	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 2-1	1.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.51
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.59

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	24.0%	21.9%	—	—	4.58
Deportes Tolima at HT / Deportes Tolima at FT	20.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Deportes Tolima at FT	16.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Llaneros at HT / Llaneros at FT	15.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Llaneros at FT	11.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Llaneros at HT / Draw at FT	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Deportes Tolima at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Llaneros at HT / Deportes Tolima at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Deportes Tolima at HT / Llaneros at FT	1.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima to score last	46.7%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Llaneros to score last	38.1%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	15.2%	11.5%	—	—	8.71

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	84.8%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
Deportes Tolima to lead by 1 at any time	51.3%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Llaneros to lead by 1 at any time	42.0%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	33.2%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Deportes Tolima to lead by 2 at any time	19.9%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Llaneros to lead by 2 at any time	13.4%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	9.1%	6.7%	—	—	14.98
Deportes Tolima to lead by 3 at any time	5.9%	6.6%	—	—	15.13
Llaneros to lead by 3 at any time	3.2%	1.6%	—	—	61.10

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros most corners	50.0%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Deportes Tolima most corners	39.1%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.3%	83.5%	85.7%	0.98×	1.20
1-4 goals	79.8%	78.6%	80.0%	0.98×	1.27
1-3 goals	71.1%	72.4%	68.4%	1.06×	1.38
2-6 goals	59.4%	59.2%	67.5%	0.88×	1.69
2-5 goals	58.3%	59.2%	65.4%	0.91×	1.69
2-4 goals	54.8%	53.2%	59.7%	0.89×	1.88
1-2 goals	53.3%	53.2%	45.3%	1.17×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.1%	48.7%	48.1%	1.01×	2.06
3-6 goals	31.1%	35.4%	42.6%	0.83×	2.83
3-5 goals	30.0%	35.4%	40.5%	0.87×	2.83
3-4 goals	26.5%	30.2%	34.8%	0.87×	3.31
4-6 goals	13.4%	14.9%	19.5%	0.76×	6.72
4-5 goals	12.2%	14.9%	17.4%	0.86×	6.72
5-6 goals	4.6%	2.6%	7.9%	0.32×	39.12
7+ goals	0.4%	2.5%	1.5%	1.66×	39.32

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Deportes Tolima never behind	42.9%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Llaneros never behind	33.5%	35.7%	—	—	2.80

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.5%	50.8%	50.3%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.5%	49.2%	49.7%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	60.2%	57.0%	—	—	1.75
Odd goals in 1st half	39.8%	43.0%	—	—	2.33

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.8%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.2%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.4%	95.5%	96.4%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.0%	92.3%	90.7%	1.02×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	86.2%	87.6%	79.1%	1.11×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	84.8%	82.4%	89.2%	0.92×	1.21
Under 2.5 goals	68.4%	66.2%	56.1%	1.18×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	59.9%	58.9%	68.8%	0.85×	1.70
Under 1.5 goals	40.1%	41.1%	31.2%	1.32×	2.43
Over 2.5 goals	31.6%	33.8%	44.0%	0.77×	2.96
Under 0.5 goals	15.2%	17.6%	10.8%	1.62×	5.68
Over 3.5 goals	13.8%	12.4%	20.9%	0.59×	8.09
Over 4.5 goals	5.0%	7.7%	9.3%	0.83×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	1.6%	4.5%	3.6%	1.24×	22.24

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.6%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.4%	97.2%	96.2%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	94.5%	92.5%	89.5%	1.03×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	83.2%	81.1%	72.9%	1.11×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	56.0%	55.4%	41.5%	1.34×	1.80
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	44.0%	44.6%	58.5%	0.76×	2.24
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	16.8%	18.9%	27.1%	0.70×	5.28
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	5.5%	7.5%	10.5%	0.71×	13.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.6%	2.8%	3.8%	0.72×	36.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.4%	2.8%	1.6%	1.77×	36.21

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	95.0%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half	80.1%	86.1%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	55.5%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Under 0.5 in 1st half	44.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Over 1.5 in 1st half	19.9%	13.9%	—	—	7.20
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.0%	4.2%	—	—	23.68

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	88.9%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	67.4%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	32.6%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	11.1%	14.6%	—	—	6.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros not to score in both halves	87.4%	85.8%	—	—	1.17
Deportes Tolima not to score in both halves	83.2%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Deportes Tolima to score in both halves	16.8%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
Llaneros to score in both halves	12.6%	14.2%	—	—	7.04

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	40.2%	46.5%	48.8%	0.95×	2.15
Only Deportes Tolima scores	26.0%	26.1%	13.5%	1.93×	3.83
Only Llaneros scores	18.7%	16.1%	27.1%	0.59×	6.22
Neither team scores	15.2%	16.1%	10.8%	1.48×	6.22

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.3%	25.0%	25.0%	1.00×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	25.0%	22.6%	20.4%	1.11×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	17.8%	17.4%	23.2%	0.75×	5.74
Exactly 0 goals	15.2%	17.4%	10.8%	1.61×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	8.8%	7.6%	11.7%	0.65×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	3.5%	4.4%	5.8%	0.76×	22.67
6 or more goals	1.6%	4.4%	3.6%	1.22×	22.70

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.5%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
2+ goals in 2nd half	32.6%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	31.9%	33.4%	—	—	2.99

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros not to win both halves	94.7%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Deportes Tolima not to win both halves	91.4%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Deportes Tolima to win both halves	8.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.44
Llaneros to win both halves	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.68

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros to win neither half	59.7%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
Deportes Tolima to win neither half	50.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Deportes Tolima to win either half	49.9%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Llaneros to win either half	40.3%	40.4%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Llaneros not to win to nil	81.3%	83.0%	72.9%	1.14×	1.21
Deportes Tolima not to win to nil	74.0%	75.3%	86.5%	0.87×	1.33
Deportes Tolima to win to nil	26.0%	24.7%	13.5%	1.83×	4.05
Llaneros to win to nil	18.7%	17.0%	27.1%	0.63×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	33.4%	27.6%	29.5%	0.94×	3.62
Deportes Tolima by 1	22.4%	24.1%	17.2%	1.40×	4.14
Llaneros by 1	18.1%	16.9%	25.6%	0.66×	5.91
Deportes Tolima by 2	11.1%	11.8%	5.0%	2.36×	8.48
Llaneros by 2	7.5%	7.3%	12.4%	0.59×	13.78
Deportes Tolima by 3+	4.9%	2.7%	2.8%	0.97×	36.92
Llaneros by 3+	2.6%	2.7%	8.2%	0.33×	37.00

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.