Lorient v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 10
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
5 – 5
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.79 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.56 – -0.41
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lorient win
45.9%
Draw
25.5%
Angers win
28.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lorient are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDLWDLWW last 10
scored 13
from 12.4 xG
conceded 10
from 12.6 xG
Angers are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDDLWLDWLL last 10
scored 12
from 15.4 xG
conceded 20
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–0.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.75–0.89 | 1-0 12% | 49% | 49% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lorient 1.44 xGAngers 0.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lorient attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Arsène Kouassi |
| 11' |
 Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 14' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 19' |
Angers |
Branco van den Boomen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lilian Raolisoa |
| 21' |
Angers |
Jacques Ekomie | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 24' |
Angers |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlens Arcus |
| 30' |
Angers |
Ousmane Camara | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 34' |
Angers |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlens Arcus |
| 56' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 57' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.74 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 61' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Théo Le Bris |
| 63' |
Angers |
Lilian Raolisoa | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ousmane Camara |
| 64' |
Angers |
Branco van den Boomen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Goduine Koyalipou |
| 65' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 74' |
Lorient |
Dermane Karim | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sambou Soumano |
| 93' |
Angers |
Jordan Lefort | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lilian Raolisoa |
Players
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilian Raolisoa AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Haris Belkebla DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| Branco van den Boomen DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Goduine Koyalipou FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Louis Mouton AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Yassin Belkhdim AMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Amine Sbaï Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Florent Hanin Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lanroy Machine Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Prosper Peter Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marius Courcoul Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Laurent Abergel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Igor Silva DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Darline Yongwa DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Pablo Pagis AMC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.19 | 0.56 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 70 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Arthur Avom Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sambou Soumano Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Dermane Karim Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Panos Katseris Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bamo Meïté Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |