Lorient v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 10
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.54 – 0.84
Goals − xG
+0.97 – +0.03
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lorient win
52.5%
Draw
25.5%
Auxerre win
22.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lorient are finishing below their chances — 2.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLWLDWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 14.4 xG
conceded 13
from 16.6 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.49–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.60–0.98 | 1-0 12% | 48% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lorient 1.03 xGAuxerre 1.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lorient attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Auxerre |
Marvin Senaya | 0.42 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Sinaly Diomande |
| 4' |
 Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng |
| 13' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.22 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 18' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Darline Yongwa |
| 22' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Darline Yongwa |
| 23' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Danny Namaso |
| 28' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.19 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Pablo Pagis |
| 32' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 35' |
Lorient |
Théo Le Bris | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng |
| 39' |
Auxerre |
Fredrik Oppegård | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Lorient |
Théo Le Bris | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 45' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.36 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 49' |
Lorient |
Laurent Abergel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Lorient |
Darline Yongwa | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 60' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Darline Yongwa |
| 61' |
Auxerre |
Fredrik Oppegård | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 64' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Fredrik Oppegård |
| 66' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Josué Casimir |
| 68' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noah Cadiou |
| 88' |
Auxerre |
Sékou Mara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sinaly Diomande |
| 90' |
Auxerre |
Sékou Mara | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Okoh |
| 92' |
Lorient |
Bamo Meïté | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Arthur Avom |
| 93' |
Lorient |
Panos Katseris | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Arthur Avom |
Players
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Marvin Senaya DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Fredrik Oppegård ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Danny Namaso FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.02 |
| Bryan Okoh DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.18 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Elisha Owusu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josué Casimir MR | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.37 | 0.84 |
| Sékou Mara Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Darline Yongwa DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Igor Silva DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng FW | 86 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| Pablo Pagis AMC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| Laurent Abergel MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Arthur Avom Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Dermane Karim Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aiyegun Tosin Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sambou Soumano Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Panos Katseris Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |