Lorient v Le Havre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 7
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
3 – 4
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.95 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-1.27 – +0.71
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lorient win
51.8%
Draw
26.6%
Le Havre win
21.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lorient are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDLWDLWW last 10
scored 13
from 12.4 xG
conceded 10
from 12.6 xG
Le Havre are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWLDLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.8 xG
conceded 13
from 17.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–1.08 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lorient 1.27 xGLe Havre 1.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lorient attacking right
Le Havre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Le Havre |
Sofiane Boufal | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 14' |
 Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 27' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 32' |
Lorient |
Abdoulaye Faye | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 38' |
Le Havre |
Yassine Kechta | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Koffi |
| 43' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Abdoulaye Faye |
| 45' |
Lorient |
Jean-Victor Makengo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Noah Cadiou |
| 46' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
| 49' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 53' |
Le Havre |
Sofiane Boufal | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 56' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Laurent Abergel |
| 60' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sofiane Boufal |
| 61' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.71 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sofiane Boufal |
| 67' |
Le Havre |
Sofiane Boufal | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fodé Doucouré |
| 84' |
Lorient |
Dermane Karim | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Lorient |
Arsène Kouassi | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Lorient |
Montassar Talbi | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Arsène Kouassi |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Soumaré AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.12 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Sofiane Boufal AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.13 | 1.12 | 1.21 |
| Arouna Sangante DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Étienne Youté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Mory Diaw GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mbwana Samatta FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Yassine Kechta DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Fodé Doucouré AMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.32 |
| Enzo Koffi DL | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Timothee Pembele Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loïc Négo Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Ebonog Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felix Mambimbi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Georges Gomis Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Panos Katseris DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Abdoulaye Faye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Nathaniel Adjei DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Pablo Pagis AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Laurent Abergel MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.22 |
| Dermane Karim Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Aiyegun Tosin Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Avom Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bamo Meïté Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sambou Soumano Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |