Lorient v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 30 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 20
On target
2 – 11
Shots in box
5 – 15
xG per shot
0.38 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
2.27 – 0.94
Goals − xG
-1.27 – +3.22
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lorient win
36.7%
Draw
25.2%
Lille win
38.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lorient are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDLWDLWW last 10
scored 13
from 12.4 xG
conceded 10
from 12.6 xG
Lille are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWDWWLWD last 10
scored 12
from 14.3 xG
conceded 8
from 11.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.39–1.42 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lorient 2.27 xGLille 3.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lorient attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Lorient |
Abdoulaye Faye | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Igor Silva |
| 6' |
 Lille |
Alexsandro Ribeiro | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 31' |
Lorient |
Laurent Abergel | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Lille |
Alexsandro Ribeiro | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 42' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Lille |
Romain Perraud | 0.22 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Felix Correia |
| 47' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 47' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Felix Correia |
| 54' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thomas Meunier |
| 57' |
Lille |
Felix Correia | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Lorient |
Aiyegun Tosin | 0.68 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Sambou Soumano |
| 63' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 63' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.64 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 68' |
Lille |
Hamza Igamane | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 68' |
Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.52 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 79' |
Lille |
Hamza Igamane | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 79' |
Lille |
Matias Fernandez-Pardo | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Hamza Igamane |
| 82' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Lorient |
Igor Silva | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aissa Mandi |
| 86' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Romain Perraud |
| 91' |
Lille |
Osame Sahraoui | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 92' |
Lille |
Hamza Igamane | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Benjamin André |
| 94' |
Lille |
Osame Sahraoui | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Berke Özer |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.18 | 1.69 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.48 | 1.39 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Alexsandro Ribeiro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.93 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.71 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo FW | 87 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.27 | 0.00 | 1.43 |
| Thomas Meunier DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Felix Correia AML | 84 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.58 | 0.89 |
| Marius Broholm AMR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hamza Igamane Sub | 42 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.11 | 1.33 |
| Nabil Bentaleb Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Osame Sahraoui Sub | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Aissa Mandi Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.67 |
| Ugo Raghouber Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdoulaye Faye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Igor Silva DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| Laurent Abergel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bingourou Kamara GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dermane Karim AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Montassar Talbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joel Mvuka Sub | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sambou Soumano FW | 70 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.40 | 0.68 | 0.00 |
| Aiyegun Tosin AMC | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Bamba Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Cadiou Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Panos Katseris DMR | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darline Yongwa Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Théo Le Bris Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |