Lorient v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 December 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Lorient

14:00 UTC

Lille

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 1,203h before kick-off

Lorient win

30.9%

model 31.9%

Draw

23.8%

model 24.6%

Lille win

45.3%

model 43.6%

312445

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.5%
1-2 9.1%
0-1 8.7%
2-1 7.6%
1-0 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	55.2%	Under 2.5	44.8%
BTTS yes	58.0%	BTTS no	42.0%
Lorient 1+	73.2%	Lorient 2+	37.8%
Lille 1+	79.3%	Lille 2+	46.8%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.58. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

90/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Lille (2nd half DNB)

DNB 2nd half · usually 39%

59.4% fair odds 1.68

strong signal · 311 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Lorient not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 76%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Lille carry the stronger rating, 1661 Elo against 1600.
Away from home Lille average 1.27 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Lille have an estimated 45.3% win probability, against 30.9% for Lorient and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.31 for Lorient and 1.58 for Lille.

Why Lorient

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Lorient average 1.04 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Lille can win

Lille carry the stronger rating, 1661 Elo against 1600. Away from home Lille average 1.27 xG a match.

Key players

Lorient's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (0.39), Pablo Pagis (0.35), Mamadou Koné (0.25). Lille's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Matias Fernandez-Pardo (0.49), Hákon Haraldsson (0.32), Olivier Giroud (0.29).

Availability

3 of Lorient's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Lorient's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Lille's top three contributors did not start their last match. Lille changed goalkeeper for their last match. 27% of Lille's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Lorient: 43% possession, 8.8 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.08 xG a match from set pieces. Lille: 56% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.42 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Lille are the model's most likely outcome at 45.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. Confidence 90/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Lorient are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWLDLWDLWW last 10 scored 13 from 12.4 xG conceded 10 from 12.6 xG

Lille are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWLWDWWLWD last 10 scored 12 from 14.3 xG conceded 8 from 11.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	322544	1.32–1.58	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	272549	1.14–1.62	1-1 12%	52%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to win	37.1%	36.4%	31.4%	1.16×	2.75
Lorient to win	36.8%	36.4%	46.2%	0.79×	2.75
Draw	26.0%	27.9%	22.6%	1.24×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient & not both score	19.4%	18.0%	23.6%	0.76×	5.56
Lille & not both score	19.5%	18.0%	15.6%	1.15×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Lorient & both teams score	17.5%	18.0%	22.7%	0.79×	5.56
Lille & both teams score	17.6%	18.0%	15.9%	1.13×	5.56
Draw & not both score	7.0%	8.3%	6.3%	1.31×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille & over 1.5	27.8%	26.1%	25.4%	1.03×	3.84
Lorient & over 1.5	27.6%	26.1%	36.1%	0.72×	3.84
Lorient & under 3.5	26.4%	26.1%	29.5%	0.88×	3.84
Lille & under 3.5	26.5%	26.1%	20.4%	1.28×	3.84
Lorient & over 2.5	21.4%	21.6%	28.8%	0.75×	4.63
Lille & over 2.5	21.6%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	19.3%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.3%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.56
Lorient & under 2.5	15.4%	18.0%	17.6%	1.03×	5.56
Lille & under 2.5	15.5%	18.0%	11.7%	1.54×	5.56
Lorient & over 3.5	10.5%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.79
Lille & over 3.5	10.6%	12.8%	11.2%	1.14×	7.79
Lorient & under 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Lille & under 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	6.2%	1.28×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.0%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.7%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.7%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (1UP)	53.7%	52.7%	48.9%	1.08×	1.90
Lorient (1UP)	53.5%	52.6%	59.1%	0.89×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (2UP)	37.1%	37.4%	33.7%	1.11×	2.67
Lorient (2UP)	36.8%	37.4%	48.2%	0.78×	2.68

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to win 2nd half	35.6%	35.9%	41.9%	0.86×	2.78
2nd half drawn	33.8%	34.4%	31.3%	1.10×	2.91
Lille to win 2nd half	30.6%	34.3%	27.0%	1.27×	2.92

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.5%	84.1%	82.2%	1.02×	1.19
Lille over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.6%	54.5%	50.3%	1.08×	1.84
Lille under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.4%	45.5%	49.7%	0.92×	2.20
Lille over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.5%	15.9%	17.8%	0.89×	6.29

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.2%	75.5%	75.5%	1.00×	1.33
Lorient over 0.5 in 2nd half	59.4%	58.0%	62.1%	0.93×	1.72
Lorient under 0.5 in 2nd half	40.6%	42.0%	37.9%	1.11×	2.38
Lorient over 1.5 in 2nd half	22.8%	24.5%	24.5%	1.00×	4.08

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (+2.5)	94.2%	92.1%	90.1%	1.02×	1.09
Lille (+1.5)	83.5%	82.5%	75.5%	1.09×	1.21
Lille (+0.5)	63.2%	62.9%	53.8%	1.17×	1.59
Lorient (+0.5)	62.9%	62.9%	68.6%	0.92×	1.59
Lille (-0.5)	37.1%	37.1%	31.4%	1.18×	2.70
Lorient (-0.5)	36.8%	37.1%	46.2%	0.80×	2.70
Lorient (-1.5)	16.5%	17.5%	24.5%	0.71×	5.73
Lorient (-2.5)	5.8%	7.9%	9.9%	0.80×	12.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to concede	73.5%	76.7%	78.2%	0.98×	1.30
Lille clean sheet	26.5%	23.3%	21.8%	1.07×	4.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille clean sheet in 1st half	65.3%	70.5%	51.8%	1.36×	1.42
Lille to concede in 1st half	34.7%	29.5%	48.2%	0.61×	3.39

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to concede in 2nd half	59.4%	57.4%	62.1%	0.92×	1.74
Lille clean sheet in 2nd half	40.6%	42.6%	37.9%	1.12×	2.35

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 6.5 corners	77.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Lille over 2.5 corners	76.2%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Lille under 5.5 corners	66.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Lille over 3.5 corners	61.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lille under 4.5 corners	53.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Lille over 4.5 corners	46.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Lille under 3.5 corners	38.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lille over 5.5 corners	33.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Lille under 2.5 corners	23.8%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Lille over 6.5 corners	22.7%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 3.5 goals	95.3%	97.5%	93.7%	1.04×	1.03
Lille under 2.5 goals	84.9%	81.5%	84.5%	0.96×	1.23
Lille over 0.5 goals	73.7%	71.9%	70.2%	1.02×	1.39
Lille under 1.5 goals	61.5%	63.2%	63.1%	1.00×	1.58
Lille over 1.5 goals	38.5%	36.8%	36.9%	1.00×	2.72
Lille under 0.5 goals	26.3%	28.1%	29.8%	0.94×	3.56
Lille over 2.5 goals	15.1%	18.5%	15.5%	1.20×	5.40
Lille over 3.5 goals	4.7%	2.5%	6.3%	0.40×	39.79

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille under 1.5 in 1st half	90.3%	93.9%	87.8%	1.07×	1.07
Lille under 0.5 in 1st half	59.3%	62.1%	58.0%	1.07×	1.61
Lille over 0.5 in 1st half	40.7%	37.9%	42.0%	0.90×	2.64
Lille over 1.5 in 1st half	9.7%	6.1%	12.2%	0.50×	16.49

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille scores more in 2nd half	39.4%	37.4%	34.5%	1.08×	2.67
Lille scores equally in both	38.8%	37.4%	41.0%	0.91×	2.67
Lille scores more in 1st half	21.8%	22.1%	24.6%	0.90×	4.53

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (away no bet)	58.6%	57.4%	67.2%	0.85×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.4%	42.6%	32.8%	1.30×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille even goals	53.5%	52.6%	55.8%	0.94×	1.90
Lille odd goals	46.5%	47.4%	44.2%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.5%	87.8%	82.6%	1.06×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.5%	12.2%	17.4%	0.70×	8.22

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.1%	57.8%	65.9%	0.88×	1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.9%	42.2%	34.1%	1.24×	2.37

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.1%	51.1%	60.6%	0.84×	1.96
Lille to score 2+ in a row	30.2%	29.1%	28.1%	1.04×	3.44
Lorient to score 2+ in a row	30.0%	25.3%	38.6%	0.66×	3.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.2%	16.3%	22.3%	0.73×	6.15
Lille to score 3+ in a row	9.3%	5.6%	9.2%	0.61×	17.81
Lorient to score 3+ in a row	9.2%	5.6%	13.7%	0.41×	17.82

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille corners (+3.5)	87.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Lille corners (+2.5)	80.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Lorient corners (+3.5)	78.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Lille corners (+1.5)	72.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Lorient corners (+2.5)	70.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Lorient corners (+1.5)	60.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lille corners (-1.5)	39.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lille corners (-2.5)	29.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Lorient corners (-1.5)	27.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Lille corners (-3.5)	21.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Lorient corners (-2.5)	19.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Lorient corners (-3.5)	12.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.6%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	21.0%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	79.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	71.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	62.7%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	41.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	37.3%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	28.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	21.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Over 12.5 corners	15.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.4%	11.5%	9.9%	1.16×	8.72
0-1	9.3%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.50
1-0	9.3%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.50
0-0	7.0%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.51
1-2	8.3%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.51
2-1	8.2%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
0-2	6.2%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.51
2-0	6.2%	7.4%	7.5%	0.98×	13.51
2-2	5.5%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
0-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.30
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
1-3	3.7%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
1-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
2-3	2.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.31
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.31
3-0	2.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.48×	58.30
3-1	3.6%	1.7%	6.0%	0.28×	58.30
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.31
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.32
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.31
4-1	1.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	3.88×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.81×	58.32
Any other score	2.3%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (2nd half DNB)	53.8%	53.0%	60.8%	0.87×	1.89
Lille (2nd half DNB)	46.2%	47.0%	39.2%	1.20×	2.13

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille leading at HT (DNB)	56.3%	57.0%	45.8%	1.24×	1.75
Lorient leading at HT (DNB)	43.7%	43.0%	54.2%	0.79×	2.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient or Lille (12)	74.0%	72.1%	77.4%	0.93×	1.39
Lille or draw (X2)	63.2%	63.6%	53.8%	1.18×	1.57
Lorient or draw (1X)	62.9%	63.6%	68.6%	0.93×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille or draw at HT	77.2%	79.3%	66.5%	1.19×	1.26
Lorient or draw at HT	70.6%	74.8%	71.7%	1.04×	1.34
Lorient or Lille at HT	52.2%	47.8%	61.7%	0.78×	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille or draw (1UP)	63.2%	71.7%	61.6%	1.16×	1.40
Lorient or draw (1UP)	62.9%	71.7%	73.1%	0.98×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient or draw in 2nd half	69.4%	65.7%	73.0%	0.90×	1.52
Lorient or Lille in 2nd half	66.2%	65.6%	68.7%	0.96×	1.52
Lille or draw in 2nd half	64.4%	64.1%	58.1%	1.10×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.5%	67.9%	56.9%	1.19×	1.47
Neither half drawn	34.5%	32.1%	43.1%	0.74×	3.12

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (DNB)	50.2%	50.9%	40.5%	1.26×	1.97
Lorient (DNB)	49.8%	49.1%	59.5%	0.83×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to score first	46.6%	46.0%	43.4%	1.06×	2.18
Lorient to score first	46.4%	45.9%	50.4%	0.91×	2.18
No goal scored	7.0%	7.4%	6.4%	1.17×	13.44

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.1%	51.3%	54.7%	0.94×	1.95
Not both teams to score	45.9%	48.7%	45.3%	1.08×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.8%	41.6%	45.0%	0.92×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	37.9%	38.4%	35.3%	1.09×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.4%	12.4%	9.9%	1.25×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	7.9%	8.3%	10.2%	0.81×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.2%	85.6%	84.5%	1.01×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.8%	14.4%	15.5%	0.93×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.0%	67.4%	69.5%	0.97×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.0%	32.6%	30.5%	1.07×	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.5%	59.9%	57.2%	1.05×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	28.4%	27.2%	24.2%	1.12×	3.68
Both score 1st half only	9.5%	6.9%	12.4%	0.55×	14.59
Both score in both halves	4.7%	5.0%	6.5%	0.77×	20.10

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.9%	85.2%	81.3%	1.05×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.1%	14.8%	18.7%	0.79×	6.74

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.2%	52.7%	59.7%	0.88×	1.90
A half without a goal	49.8%	47.3%	40.3%	1.18×	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.7%	47.2%	43.4%	1.09×	2.12
4-6 goals	25.8%	26.6%	30.8%	0.86×	3.76
0-1 goals	25.6%	26.6%	22.4%	1.19×	3.76
7+ goals	1.9%	1.8%	3.7%	0.50×	54.31

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to score exactly 1	35.1%	35.9%	33.5%	1.07×	2.78
Lille to score exactly 0	26.3%	27.4%	29.8%	0.92×	3.66
Lille to score exactly 2	23.4%	22.3%	21.5%	1.04×	4.48
Lille to score 3+	15.1%	19.6%	15.5%	1.26×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to score exactly 1	35.2%	35.6%	31.9%	1.12×	2.81
Lorient to score exactly 0	26.5%	26.5%	21.8%	1.22×	3.77
Lorient to score exactly 2	23.4%	23.3%	24.0%	0.97×	4.29
Lorient to score 3+	14.9%	14.3%	22.6%	0.63×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.8%	52.2%	38.3%	1.36×	1.92
Lille leading at HT	29.4%	25.2%	28.3%	0.89×	3.97
Lorient leading at HT	22.8%	20.8%	33.5%	0.62×	4.82

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille -1: 1	62.9%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Lille -1: X	20.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Lille -1: 2	16.7%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (0:1)	63.2%	61.4%	53.8%	1.14×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.3%	24.2%	21.8%	1.11×	4.13
Lorient (0:1)	16.5%	17.8%	24.5%	0.73×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (0:2)	83.5%	83.0%	75.5%	1.10×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.7%	11.0%	14.7%	0.74×	9.11
Lorient (0:2)	5.8%	7.7%	9.9%	0.78×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (0:3)	94.2%	92.7%	90.1%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.2%	2.4%	5.9%	0.40×	42.03
Lorient (0:3)	1.7%	2.4%	4.1%	0.57×	42.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (0:4)	98.3%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.3%	1.2%	2.8%	0.44×	81.96
Lorient (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.5%	0.83×	82.06

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (1:0)	62.9%	65.3%	68.6%	0.95×	1.53
Draw (1:0)	20.4%	21.7%	14.7%	1.47×	4.61
Lille (1:0)	16.7%	17.1%	16.8%	1.02×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient (2:0)	83.3%	84.6%	83.2%	1.02×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.8%	10.3%	9.9%	1.04×	9.74
Lille (2:0)	5.9%	6.4%	7.1%	0.90×	15.70

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	55.4%	56.6%	48.2%	1.17×	1.77
Halves equal	23.9%	24.5%	26.0%	0.94×	4.09
1st half highest scoring	20.8%	24.4%	26.0%	0.94×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to concede	73.7%	73.2%	70.2%	1.04×	1.37
Lorient clean sheet	26.3%	26.8%	29.8%	0.90×	3.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient clean sheet in 1st half	59.3%	62.1%	58.0%	1.07×	1.61
Lorient to concede in 1st half	40.7%	37.9%	42.0%	0.90×	2.64

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient to concede in 2nd half	55.6%	54.9%	50.3%	1.09×	1.82
Lorient clean sheet in 2nd half	44.4%	45.1%	49.7%	0.91×	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient under 6.5 corners	84.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Lorient under 5.5 corners	75.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Lorient over 2.5 corners	69.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Lorient under 4.5 corners	63.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Lorient over 3.5 corners	52.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Lorient under 3.5 corners	47.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Lorient over 4.5 corners	36.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Lorient under 2.5 corners	31.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Lorient over 5.5 corners	24.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Lorient over 6.5 corners	15.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient under 3.5 goals	95.4%	96.4%	91.6%	1.05×	1.04
Lorient under 2.5 goals	85.1%	87.2%	77.4%	1.13×	1.15
Lorient over 0.5 goals	73.5%	74.3%	78.2%	0.95×	1.35
Lorient under 1.5 goals	61.7%	63.6%	53.5%	1.19×	1.57
Lorient over 1.5 goals	38.3%	36.4%	46.5%	0.78×	2.75
Lorient under 0.5 goals	26.5%	25.7%	21.8%	1.18×	3.88
Lorient over 2.5 goals	14.9%	12.8%	22.6%	0.57×	7.84
Lorient over 3.5 goals	4.6%	3.6%	8.4%	0.43×	27.46

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient under 1.5 in 1st half	93.1%	94.8%	87.2%	1.09×	1.06
Lorient under 0.5 in 1st half	65.3%	68.9%	51.8%	1.33×	1.45
Lorient over 0.5 in 1st half	34.7%	31.1%	48.2%	0.65×	3.21
Lorient over 1.5 in 1st half	6.9%	5.2%	12.8%	0.41×	19.14

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient scores more in 2nd half	45.6%	47.0%	40.9%	1.15×	2.13
Lorient scores equally in both	37.7%	37.7%	36.6%	1.03×	2.65
Lorient scores more in 1st half	16.7%	15.3%	22.7%	0.67×	6.53

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille (home no bet)	58.8%	56.4%	58.2%	0.97×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	41.2%	43.6%	41.8%	1.04×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient even goals	53.5%	50.7%	51.8%	0.98×	1.97
Lorient odd goals	46.5%	49.3%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	38.7%	39.4%	28.5%	1.38×	2.54
HT 0-1	20.2%	24.3%	16.8%	1.45×	4.11
HT 1-0	16.5%	18.6%	21.5%	0.86×	5.37
HT 1-1	8.6%	6.9%	9.4%	0.73×	14.45
HT 0-2	5.3%	6.9%	5.2%	1.34×	14.50
HT 2-0	3.5%	2.4%	6.8%	0.35×	42.07
Any other HT score	2.5%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	42.13
HT 1-2	2.3%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.15
HT 2-1	1.8%	2.4%	3.2%	0.73×	42.18
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	0.7%	3.21×	42.27

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille at HT / Lille at FT	20.6%	21.6%	18.9%	1.14×	4.63
Draw at HT / Lorient at FT	17.0%	16.7%	15.0%	1.11×	5.97
Lorient at HT / Lorient at FT	16.8%	16.7%	27.7%	0.60×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.2%	16.7%	12.7%	1.32×	5.98
Draw at HT / Lille at FT	14.6%	12.7%	10.9%	1.16×	7.89
Lille at HT / Draw at FT	5.7%	6.0%	6.0%	0.99×	16.66
Lorient at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	4.1%	0.85×	28.64
Lille at HT / Lorient at FT	3.0%	3.5%	3.7%	0.95×	28.68
Lorient at HT / Lille at FT	1.9%	3.5%	1.9%	1.82×	28.72

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to score last	46.6%	46.5%	40.9%	1.14×	2.15
Lorient to score last	46.4%	46.4%	52.9%	0.88×	2.15
No goal scored	7.0%	7.4%	6.4%	1.17×	13.44

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.0%	92.7%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Lille to lead by 1 at any time	53.7%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.97
Lorient to lead by 1 at any time	53.5%	50.9%	59.1%	0.86×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.9%	39.2%	51.6%	0.76×	2.55
Lille to lead by 2 at any time	22.6%	19.6%	21.7%	0.90×	5.09
Lorient to lead by 2 at any time	22.4%	19.6%	30.0%	0.66×	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.2%	14.9%	19.8%	0.75×	6.71
Lille to lead by 3 at any time	7.6%	6.7%	8.3%	0.81×	14.90
Lorient to lead by 3 at any time	7.5%	6.7%	11.7%	0.57×	14.91

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille most corners	51.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Lorient most corners	37.8%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.4%	85.3%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.9%	78.7%	76.8%	1.02×	1.27
2-6 goals	72.5%	72.4%	74.0%	0.98×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.1%	68.8%	69.2%	1.00×	1.45
1-3 goals	65.3%	68.8%	59.4%	1.16×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.3%	63.3%	60.8%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	47.8%	48.5%	51.5%	0.94×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.7%	48.5%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.3%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.29
1-2 goals	43.3%	43.6%	38.8%	1.12×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.6%	39.2%	38.2%	1.03×	2.55
4-6 goals	25.8%	30.2%	30.8%	0.98×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.4%	24.5%	26.0%	0.94×	4.08
5-6 goals	11.2%	14.8%	13.4%	1.10×	6.75
7+ goals	1.9%	2.6%	3.7%	0.69×	39.14

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille never behind	39.5%	44.1%	40.9%	1.08×	2.27
Lorient never behind	39.3%	44.1%	51.1%	0.86×	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	47.8%	1.07×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	52.2%	0.94×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.5%	57.9%	51.5%	1.13×	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.5%	42.1%	48.5%	0.87×	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	51.9%	50.1%	1.04×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.1%	49.9%	0.96×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.6%	92.3%	91.4%	1.01×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.0%	92.3%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.9%	87.6%	83.0%	1.05×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	74.4%	72.5%	77.6%	0.93×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	72.2%	72.5%	65.6%	1.10×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	50.3%	52.5%	45.0%	1.17×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	49.7%	47.5%	55.0%	0.86×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	27.8%	27.5%	34.4%	0.80×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	25.6%	27.5%	22.4%	1.23×	3.63
Over 4.5 goals	13.1%	12.4%	17.0%	0.73×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.0%	7.7%	6.3%	1.22×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.4%	7.7%	8.6%	0.90×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.0%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	94.2%	92.4%	90.7%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.6%	81.1%	79.5%	1.02×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.0%	67.4%	71.0%	0.95×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	64.4%	61.9%	56.7%	1.09×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	35.6%	38.1%	43.3%	0.88×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	34.0%	32.6%	29.0%	1.12×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	15.4%	18.9%	20.5%	0.92×	5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.8%	7.6%	9.3%	0.81×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.0%	2.8%	3.9%	0.72×	35.60

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.9%	92.7%	87.5%	1.06×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	75.5%	78.3%	66.5%	1.18×	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	61.3%	63.1%	71.5%	0.88×	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	38.7%	36.9%	28.5%	1.29×	2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half	24.5%	21.7%	33.5%	0.65×	4.60
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.1%	7.3%	12.5%	0.58×	13.69

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.0%	83.2%	81.9%	1.02×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.4%	79.1%	75.4%	1.05×	1.27
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.1%	53.0%	49.9%	1.06×	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.9%	47.0%	50.1%	0.94×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.6%	20.9%	24.6%	0.85×	4.78
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.0%	16.8%	18.1%	0.92×	5.96

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient not to score in both halves	79.4%	78.6%	67.8%	1.16×	1.27
Lille not to score in both halves	77.4%	78.5%	77.9%	1.01×	1.27
Lille to score in both halves	22.6%	21.5%	22.1%	0.97×	4.65
Lorient to score in both halves	20.6%	21.4%	32.2%	0.67×	4.67

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.1%	53.9%	54.7%	0.98×	1.86
Only Lille scores	19.5%	16.0%	15.6%	1.03×	6.24
Only Lorient scores	19.4%	16.0%	23.6%	0.68×	6.24
Neither team scores	7.0%	7.1%	6.3%	1.12×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.7%	22.6%	22.7%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	21.9%	22.6%	20.8%	1.09×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	18.6%	17.5%	16.2%	1.08×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.6%	12.1%	17.6%	0.69×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	7.8%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	7.0%	7.6%	6.3%	1.20×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.4%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	38.7%	37.4%	28.5%	1.31×	2.68
1 goal in 1st half	36.7%	37.3%	38.2%	0.98×	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	17.4%	15.7%	21.1%	0.74×	6.39
3+ goals in 1st half	7.1%	7.3%	12.5%	0.58×	13.69

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	51.1%	51.1%	49.9%	1.02×	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	30.9%	33.8%	32.2%	1.05×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	18.0%	16.5%	18.1%	0.91×	6.08

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient not to win both halves	91.9%	94.1%	83.6%	1.13×	1.06
Lille not to win both halves	91.0%	94.1%	90.7%	1.04×	1.06
Lille to win both halves	9.0%	5.9%	9.3%	0.64×	16.87
Lorient to win both halves	8.1%	5.9%	16.4%	0.36×	16.94

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lille to win either half	51.0%	54.2%	46.0%	1.18×	1.85
Lorient to win either half	50.3%	54.2%	59.0%	0.92×	1.85
Lorient to win neither half	49.7%	45.8%	41.0%	1.12×	2.18
Lille to win neither half	49.0%	45.8%	54.0%	0.85×	2.18

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lorient not to win to nil	80.6%	83.1%	76.4%	1.09×	1.20
Lille not to win to nil	80.5%	83.1%	84.4%	0.98×	1.20
Lille to win to nil	19.5%	16.9%	15.6%	1.08×	5.91
Lorient to win to nil	19.4%	16.9%	23.6%	0.72×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.0%	27.9%	22.6%	1.24×	3.59
Lorient by 1	20.3%	24.1%	21.8%	1.10×	4.15
Lille by 1	20.4%	24.1%	14.7%	1.63×	4.15
Lille by 2	10.8%	11.8%	9.9%	1.19×	8.51
Lorient by 2	10.7%	11.8%	14.7%	0.80×	8.51
Lorient by 3+	5.8%	7.2%	9.9%	0.73×	13.91
Lille by 3+	5.9%	7.2%	7.1%	1.02×	13.91