Lorient v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 16
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 11
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+0.71 – -2.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lorient win
34.7%
Draw
24.7%
Marseille win
40.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lorient are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDLWDLWW last 10
scored 13
from 12.4 xG
conceded 10
from 12.6 xG
Marseille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWLLLLWW last 10
scored 18
from 19.4 xG
conceded 14
from 21.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–1.60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–1.68 | 1-1 11% | 61% | 62% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lorient 1.29 xGMarseille 2.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lorient attacking right
Marseille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Marseille |
Mason Greenwood | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 27' |
Lorient |
Panos Katseris | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 31' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 35' |
Marseille |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 46' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Darline Yongwa |
| 47' |
Marseille |
Himad Abdelli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 48' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Panos Katseris |
| 49' |
Marseille |
Timothy Weah | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Amine Gouiri |
| 50' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 54' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emerson |
| 57' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pablo Pagis |
| 59' |
Marseille |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Marseille |
Emerson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hamed Junior Traore |
| 61' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Darline Yongwa |
| 71' |
Marseille |
Ethan Nwaneri | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal Nadir |
| 74' |
Lorient |
Pablo Pagis | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Lorient |
Aiyegun Tosin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Pagis |
| 78' |
Marseille |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Vermeeren |
| 82' |
Marseille |
Benjamin Pavard | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bilal Nadir |
| 83' |
Lorient |
Igor Silva | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Marseille |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mason Greenwood |
| 92' |
Marseille |
Ugo El Kadmiri | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Emerson |
Players
Marseille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamed Junior Traore DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.03 | 1.35 |
| Benjamin Pavard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Mason Greenwood AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.56 | 1.16 |
| Emerson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.03 | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| Leonardo Balerdi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Gerónimo Rulli GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Himad Abdelli MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Amine Gouiri AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Igor Paixão DML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Timothy Weah Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Ethan Nwaneri Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Bilal Nadir Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| Ugo El Kadmiri Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Arthur Vermeeren Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Darline Yongwa DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Abdoulaye Faye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Nathaniel Adjei DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Panos Katseris DMR | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.13 | 0.53 |
| Pablo Pagis FWL | 83 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo FWR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Laurent Abergel Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Aiyegun Tosin Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Igor Silva Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sambou Soumano Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |