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Lorient v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG

1–0
1.75 – 0.49 xG
Shots
9 – 15
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.80 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-0.94 – -0.49
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.11.62.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Noah Cadiou 60' — goal
Lorient 1.94 xGMonaco 0.49 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Anssumane Fati 8' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 20' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Gabin Bernardeau 28' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Ibrahima Baldé 30' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 33' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Aleksandr Golovin 36' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Lamine Camara 38' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Flávio Nazinho 45' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)Lamine Camara 45' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 45' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Anssumane Fati 46' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gabin Bernardeau 49' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Anssumane Fati 58' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Noah Cadiou 60' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Denis Zakaria 63' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Folarin Balogun 69' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Gabin Bernardeau 73' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Folarin Balogun 78' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mamadou Koné 80' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Arsène Kouassi 82' — Saved Shot (0.40 xG, Open Play)Dembo Sylla 82' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Mamadou Koné 82' — Missed Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Mathys Detourbet 86' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Folarin Balogun 90' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)
Lorient attacking right Monaco attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
8' Monaco Anssumane Fati 0.03 Open Play — Missed Shot Vanderson
20' Monaco Matthis Abline 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Lamine Camara
28' Lorient Gabin Bernardeau 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot —
30' Lorient Ibrahima Baldé 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gabin Bernardeau
33' Monaco Matthis Abline 0.02 Open Play — Missed Shot Takumi Minamino
36' Monaco Aleksandr Golovin 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
38' Monaco Lamine Camara 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Denis Zakaria
45' Monaco Flávio Nazinho 0.03 Direct Freekick Left Foot Missed Shot —
45' Monaco Lamine Camara 0.02 Open Play — Blocked Shot —
45' Monaco Matthis Abline 0.05 Open Play — Saved Shot —
46' Monaco Anssumane Fati 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Aleksandr Golovin
49' Lorient Gabin Bernardeau 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
58' Monaco Anssumane Fati 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Aleksandr Golovin
60' Lorient Noah Cadiou 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
63' Monaco Denis Zakaria 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
69' Monaco Folarin Balogun 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Vanderson
73' Lorient Gabin Bernardeau 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Souleymane Isaak Touré
78' Monaco Folarin Balogun 0.04 Open Play — Saved Shot Edan Diop
80' Lorient Mamadou Koné 0.02 Set Piece — Missed Shot Arthur Avom
82' Lorient Arsène Kouassi 0.40 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Souleymane Isaak Touré
82' Lorient Dembo Sylla 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Mamadou Koné
82' Lorient Mamadou Koné 0.46 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jean-Victor Makengo
86' Monaco Mathys Detourbet 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Aleksandr Golovin
90' Monaco Folarin Balogun 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Flávio Nazinho

Players

Monaco

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Flávio Nazinho DL 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.04 0.20
Lamine Camara DMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.03 0.02 0.23
Aleksandr Golovin AML 90 0 0 1 4 0.01 0.13 0.24
Vanderson DR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.20
Sadibou Sané DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.25
Lukas Hradecky GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Matthis Abline FW 76 0 0 3 0 0.08 0.00 0.17
Anssumane Fati AMC 67 0 0 3 0 0.13 0.00 0.14
Denis Zakaria DMC 67 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.01 0.12
Mohammed Salisu DC 67 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Takumi Minamino AMR 53 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.04
Edan Diop Sub 37 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.19
Folarin Balogun Sub 23 0 0 3 0 0.16 0.00 0.19
Mathys Detourbet Sub 23 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.15
Christian Mawissa Elebi Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Mika Biereth Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03

Lorient

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Noah Cadiou MC 90 1 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.10
Arsène Kouassi DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.40 0.00 0.55
Dembo Sylla DMR 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.17
Arthur Avom MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.10
Jean-Victor Makengo AMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.46 0.46
Montassar Talbi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Yvon Mvogo GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Souleymane Isaak Touré DC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.43 0.51
Nathaniel Adjei DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Gabin Bernardeau AMC 80 0 0 3 1 0.15 0.08 0.21
Ibrahima Baldé FW 72 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Mamadou Koné Sub 18 0 0 2 1 0.48 0.07 0.53
Souleymane Faye Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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